5 Keys to Knicks vs Celtics

Can the Knicks hang with Boston? Here are 5 questions that will determine the answer, including the big one that outweighs all the rest.

Good morning! It’s time.

Game 1 tips off tonight at 7pm on TNT. Clean injury report for both teams. Come say hi at at halftime.

5 Keys to Knicks vs Celtics

Three weeks ago, the day after the regular season ended, I ended the Monday newsletter with a reference to A Few Good Men.

After doing so, the Knicks went on to win their first round series against the Pistons. Might as well go back to the well one more time.

The scene I’m thinking of today didn’t take place in the courtroom though. It happened at a crab shack, where Tom Cruise’s character accompanies Demi Moore’s character to dinner during a break in the trial. As she starts to flatter him by telling him how good of a lawyer she thinks he is and how their clients will wind up owing him their lives, he gives her the look of a parent who has to tell their child that the family dog has to be put down.

I think you should prepare yourself for the fact that we're gonna lose.

He goes on to explain why, even in a best case scenario, there’s a very good chance they won’t come out on top. Of course, she isn’t convinced, leading to one of my favorite line deliveries of the movie:

Right now, having thought about this series all weekend (and truthfully, for the seven months since they traded for Karl-Anthony Towns), I feel like Cruise with hands smelling of crustacean.

Of course - spoiler alert for a 33-year-old movie - they don’t lose. Cruise gets Jack Nicholson on the stand, and in perhaps the most electric scene of the 90’s, gets Nicholson’s character Nathan Jessep to say exactly what he needed him to say to win the case.

Was it highly unlikely that a savvy career military man with Jessep’s resume would fall into that trap? Of course. That’s what makes the ending great.

But the reason the movie lives on after all these years isn’t because the ending is unlikely; it’s because it’s believable. Thanks to Aaron Sorkin’s brilliant screenwriting, we don’t doubt that Cruise is capable of pulling off the greatest cross examination in the history of trial law, nor do we question Nicholson blowing a gasket. That ending was great because it was earned.

Which brings us to Knicks vs Celtics, where the defending champions are currently -800 favorites to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Maybe the prosecution in AFGM had slightly better odds, but not by much.

In other words, the smart money says that New York beating Boston is just as unlikely as a Dawson & Downey acquittal. That doesn’t mean its impossible.

Much like the movie, the Knicks are 100 percent capable of pulling off an upset that would shock the NBA world. Not only do they have the tools that it’ll take to do it, but those tools have shown the ability to do exactly the sorts of things they’ll need to do to win this series.

So why, on this Monday morning with the series tied 0-0, am I echoing Cruise’s pessimism? Because “capable” is a far cry from “likely,” and we have 88 games’ worth of evidence to strongly suggest that New York isn’t going to check all the boxes they need to check as consistently as they need to check them in order for this to go their way.

But there’s always time to change the narrative. Here are the five things they need to get right in oder to do just that, starting with the big kahuna - aka, the NYK/BOS version of Cruise getting Jack to admit he ordered the code red:

1. Can Karl-Anthony Towns play up to his full potential?

On paper, KAT just finished arguably the best playoff series of his 10-year career.

He averaged 20 & 10. He turned the ball over just eight times in the whole series. He did foul out of Game 6, but in comparison to years past, he largely avoided the silly fouls that have defined his postseason experience. Most importantly, the Knicks outscored the Pistons by 1.9 points per 100 possessions when Towns played while they were outscored by 7.4 points per 100 possessions when he sat as their offense fell off a cliff.

And yet despite all of the above, I can’t sit here and wholeheartedly say that KAT had a “good” series against Detroit. Out of the six games, he only played at an All-NBA level in Game 3. He had other great moment - his fourth quarter defense in Game 1, his all-world shotmaking at the end of Game 4, and a quietly great rebounding effort in Game 6 that also featured two big defensive moments in the final minutes - but overall, outside of that one game, Towns’ performance left something to be desired.

This fully dawned on me when I was listening to Andrew Claudio’s series recap with Bryce Simon, and the two discussed the top players in the series. They agreed it was Brunson first, then Cade, then a large gap, and then OG Anunoby in third. Continuing the exercise in my own head, I put Josh Hart fourth and Mikal fifth (although Tobias Harris deserves a mention there).

At that moment, it dawned on me that the Knicks were a few plays away from losing a series in which they definitively had three of the best four players and arguably four of the top five. KAT isn’t the only one who has to own this reality, and we’ll get to some other culprits shortly, but Towns is one of New York’s two All-NBA level players, and the fact that he was significantly underwhelming was a major reason they struggled so much.

I say all this to make what is by far the most obvious statement about Knicks Celtics, which is that New York can’t win unless Karl-Anthony Towns is awesome. We can quibble about the ways Towns needs to be awesome, but there’s no arguing against the fact that the Knicks will get smoked if we get a repeat of the first round.

That sounds incredibly foreboding, but here’s where I have some good news for you. If KAT is awesome - something that shouldn’t be an unreasonable ask for an All-NBA player making a $55 million average annual salary - it changes the entire dynamic of this series. To wit, in the April 8 loss that the Knicks should have won in regulation:

1. Jalen Brunson wasn’t quite himself in only his second game back from injury, getting to the free throw line for just two attempts all night.

2. The Knicks hit 29 percent of their threes (including OG going 0-for-5) to Boston’s 39 percent.

3. Mikal Bridges hadn’t yet morphed into Playoff Mikal Bridges, which is apparently a thing and is gaining steam.

4. Kristaps Porzingis had literally the best 3-point shooting game of his career, making 8-of-13 from distance.

Despite all of this, New York was a Jayson Tatum triple away from coming away with a W. Why? Because Boston couldn’t stop KAT. In scoring 34 points on 21 shots, Towns proved that he could sufficiently punish the strategy of Boston guarding him with a wing.

Now take that notion and extrapolate it out over the course of an entire series. As Benjy Ritholtz pointed out in his Gradebook after the game, if Towns can maintain something close to this level of play against Boston every night, it would either tire out Jayson Tatum or force the Celtics to guard him with another defender - maybe even their own center, which would completely change how Towns is able to operate.

On that point, if Boston continues to guard KAT with wings, how aggressively will Thibs draw up plays to hunt threes for Towns, as Fred Katz suggested in our conversation this weekend? Karl made 64 percent of his deep balls against the Celtics this season, but on just 11 attempts across four games. That was by design on Boston’s part. It’s not an accident that Towns put up 15 total attempts behind the arc in his two best scoring games of the Pistons series. This is just one of several areas where New York’s head coach should be feeling the pressure to create advantages for his best players as opposed to letting the game come to them.

Defensively, Towns wasn’t great in that last matchup, but he has shown signs of being better, both against Boston earlier this season and in these playoffs. The version of KAT we got at the beginning of the Pistons series, when he was aggressive at the level of the screen with high hands and active feet, was something of a revelation. No, Detroit doesn’t have a pop threat like KP, but the activity level Towns played with can still translate to the Celtics.

Of course, this matchup will require the Knicks to push many different buttons on defense. When they’re in drop (and yes, they will have to play some drop), will we get an engaged Towns or an I’m-just-here-so-I-don’t-get-fined Towns? How confident will Thibs be in KAT’s ability to hold up on switches - something he did quite well back in February but has struggled with at other times, including when he fouled Tatum on a key 3-pointer late in their final matchup?

Towns doesn’t need to play at an A+ level every game for the Knicks to have a chance. It’s why this question is titled what it is as opposed to “Can Towns have the series of his life?” The bigger question is whether he can avoid those C- or D+ games where he bottoms out, like he did a few times against Detroit.

If Towns can finally actualize all of his powers over one two-week stretch, New York’s upset chances go up exponentially.

2. What will the Knicks get from their bench?

Thank goodness for the Los Angeles Lakers, whose reserves were so woefully horrific in their first round series against the Wolves that it saved the Knicks from having the lowest scoring bench unit in the playoffs.

Still, there was a chasm between New York and the next lowest team, the offensively inept Orlando Magic:

Their paltry stats, obviously, are partially due to a lack of opportunity, but therein lies the chicken or egg conversation that has plagued this roster all season. In the first round though, it’s hard to blame Thibs too much for his lack of trust.

Deuce McBride was a shell of himself, as I discussed on Friday. Following his Game 1 heroics, Cam Payne made just 4-of-12 field goals with zero threes and was an abysmal minus-25 in 39 minutes. Mitchell Robinson quite literally could not catch a basketball, evinced by the team’s 17 percent turnover rate when he played (as opposed to 10 percent when he sat) and 97.1 offensive rating in his 99 minutes. Landry Shamet didn’t even make it to Game 5.

The Celtics demand so much of their opponent for 48 minutes, both physically and mentally. There is no universe where the Knicks can be competitive in this series if they don’t get at least adequate play from the non-starters.

Some specific keys:

• Deuce needs to make threes. He’s never been the sort of player who needs to shoot well to play well, but in this series, he’ll have to.

• Another for McBride: the possessions of aimless dribbling need to end.

• Mitch has to hold up in pick & pop situations, which have always been an area of struggle.

• Robinson also has to dominate the glass. He did great in round one, nabbing 8.5 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes against Detroit, but Boston is a sneakily good defensive rebounding team. If Mitch isn’t grabbing offensive boards, his value in this series craters. The C’s also hurt New York with their own offensive rebounding this year, especially Luke Kornet in the last game. Robinson has to make sure that doesn’t happen.

• Cam Payne needs to have a Campaign.

The good news: all of these guys have a track record of changing playoff games for the better (and in Robinson’s case, an entire series). They can do it. They just need to show it.

3. Josh Hart has to take - and make - threes

Hart got half of this down pat against Detroit, making nearly half of the threes he attempted, but it came on only 13 attempts.

I don’t think there’s a magic number he needs to reach to tilt the scales enough against Boston, but it might take something similar to what we got in round one a year ago, when Hart attempted 7.0 threes a night against the Sixers, making 43 percent of those looks.

We know the Celtics are going to guard him with KP, and we know KP is going to treat him with the same level of respect as he does the Boson Leprechaun. Hart’s smoke and mirrors act can only counter this strategy so much, and at some point, he’s going to need to make the Celtics think twice about leaving him on an island.

4. What will New York get from its wings?

In Boston’s first round gentleman’s sweep of Orlando, the Magic did what they set out to accomplish on defense, limiting the Celtics to just 31.2 shots per game from behind the arc. Even so, Boston put up a 117.4 offensive rating, which is a testament to how many ways they can beat you. Orlando switched as much as any team reasonably could against the Celtics, but they don’t have the sort of switch everything defense (like Boston) that made it a foolproof strategy against a team with so many ways to beat you (like Boston. Sigh).

New York, on the flip side, was perhaps the most switch-averse team in the league this year when it came to its two weakest defenders. That will have to change in this series, and probably have to change a lot.

How Brunson and KAT hold up on those possessions will go a long way to determining the outcome, but even if they approach “adequate” for the series, it won’t be enough. To win four games, the Wingstop theory behind the construction of this roster will have to fully come to fruition.

That obviously starts on defense. OG is OG, but Bridges and Hart need to hold their own as well. If Tatum or Brown plays for that switch, welcome it, and make them regret their decision. Tatum hit some impossibly difficult shots over Mikal in the last game, but that shouldn’t deter New York from using him to guard Boston’s MVP for stretches of this series. A tough Tatum two is a far better outcome than much of what the Celtics are capable of.

We already talked about the challenges of turning Hart into a positive on offense, but the other two wings shouldn’t have nearly as difficult of a time. Neither has performed anywhere close to expectations against the Celtics this season, and for as much negative attention as Bridges has gotten, Anunoby was far worse:

Boston is never going to send two to the ball when either of these guys has it. That’s fine. Anunoby has enough of a size advantage on several Celtics that bully ball should be a part of his repertoire. As for Bridges, he needs to do his best Klay Thompson impersonation and move without the ball like he’s never moved before.

(Both of these asks, by the by, will be much easier if Boston starts to become scared of Towns beasting. Again: it all comes back to KAT.)

5. Can Jalen Brunson be the best player in the series?

And I’m not just talking about on offense, although that is where we have to start.

The Celtics don’t have an individual answer for Jalen like the Pistons did with Ausar Thompson, so we know he can get his shot off basically whenever he wants. I’m sure that will be the temptation. Boston’s defense is a house of horrors, and often times the simplest path from A to B is the best one. A shot off Brunson’s fingertips will rarely be a bad outcome.

Except that Jalen Brunson can’t beat the Celtics by himself. No player can. They’re too complete, too well-coached, and too confident in their ability to execute more often than you over the course of a seven-game series.

That’s what makes this Jalen Brunson’s greatest test yet. The very best in the history of the sport can vacillate seamlessly between creating for themselves and getting good looks for others. If Brunson can do that here, New York will have a chance.

Defensively, no one is looking for the second coming of Gary Payton. Brunson merely needs to hold his own. If a Tatum or Brown switch isn’t viewed as an automatic bucket, that’s a win. Make them work. Make them sweat. Do that, and you’ve done your job.

And that’s about it. There’s a bunch more we can say about this series before it starts, but at this point, I just want to get to the opening tip.

We’re going back to Boston, right where everything started. If the Knicks don’t want the season to end where it began, they know the formula to make it happen.

Maybe Joe Galloway was right all along.

We’ll start to find out the answer tonight.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”