A Good Bad Loss
And the Rise of Frank
Blink and you might have missed it, but this is what the 2019-20 New York Knicks were supposed to be.
Remember way, way, way back on the last day of September, at Media Day, when there was talk of Dawgs, defense and a dependable if unspectacular vets blending with the kids who would guide this franchise long term?
Well, for about two weeks now, that’s more or less what we’ve gotten.
Over the Knicks last seven games - they’ve played 15 total - they’re 3-4 against a schedule that hasn’t been hard but hasn’t been easy either. They have a minus 2.9 net rating, good for 20th in the league over that span, with (are you sitting down for this?) an offense ranked one spot higher (19th) than the defense (20th). Extrapolate the win percentage from this super-small sample size over a full season and it’s a 35-win pace, or right about where the most optimistic reasonable thinkers pegged them.
Of course all of this rings a bit hollow because (in no particular order) New York started 1-8, was the laughing stock of the league for a solid 36-hour period, and is coming off a loss where they were up 17 with 4:15 left to go in the 3rd quarter and gave up 49 points over the final 15:20.
So where does that leave us? Let’s get into the categories:
One Big Thing
These are your 2019-20 New York Knicks
Here’s what not-quite-decent teams do: go on the road, take a nice lead against a good team not quite fully locked it, fall back when the good team actually commits on both ends, probably takes a few bad shots, and ultimately relents when the best player on the floor remembers he plays for the other team.
(that’s what makes last night a bit more frustrating. Yes, Joel Embiid had 12 points in the fourth quarter, including the game-sealing three. Fine. It’s the three Mike Scott deep balls in the last seven minutes that kills you)
The Knicks were supposed to be a not-quite-decent team this year, and last night, that’s exactly what they looked like. Of course not-quite-decent teams leave you frustrated, with things like the “wrong” guys taking shots (Hi Mook!), inconsistent play-calling (more pick and roll, anyone?) and a minutes distribution that leaves someone out in the cold.
(on that note, feel free to yell into the void about Kevin Knox not playing in the second half. I’m not having it here. This is what accountability looks like, and against a team like Philly, who will exploit any weak spot, Knox’s inconsistent defense wouldn’t have helped the cause in the second half. Don’t worry…the coach and organization are still fully invested. He’s fine, and his time is coming)
Considering where this team was just a week and a half ago though, you’ll take performances like this any day. The important thing is consistency, and continued, if not linear, signs of improvement.
The only question now will be whether it’s too little, too late, and their (predictably) bad start means that another rough patch of close losses against good teams will have them starting to let go of the rope and/or have James Dolan getting an itchy harmonica once again.
Here’s hoping it doesn’t happen, nor should it. The Knicks have now played a little more than a sixth of the season with a very new, very young roster. With the improvements we’ve already seen, everyone owes it to them to let this thing ride out for a while.
Made Me Smile
Quick…see if you can spot the difference:
Did you get it? No? I know…it’s a tough one.
Let me give you another try:
Apologies for racking your senses like that, but here at Knicks Film School, if we’re not challenging our readers, we’re simply not doing our job.
Ah, that was fun.
You can forgive me for tapping into my silly side today, but it’s just really nice when someone you’ve believed in for years is finally coming into his own. A few weeks ago, my daughter made it halfway down the block on her tricycle all by herself. That’s the closest thing I can compare to watching the emergence of our collective son, Frank Ntilikina, this season
Since he “earned” the starting job (read: none of the ushers at MSG passed their physical and Fiz found out he couldn’t trade for Mudiay until December 15), Ntilikina has .446/.400/.714 shooting splits and is averaging 7.8 points, 3.7 dimes (against only 1.2 turnovers), 2.7 boards, 1.9 steals and 1.0 blocks in 30 minutes of action a night.
Of course, anyone who’s watched a game knows that those numbers don’t even begin to tell the whole story. According to Cleaning the Glass, not only has Frank’s presence on the floor been worth the equivalent of 26 wins over a full 82-game season, but the Knicks are better at literally everything they do when he plays, both on offense…
…and on defense:
Is it too far to say he’s been the Knicks’ best player this season? Probably, and I’m honestly not objective enough about him to make that call. When RJ has been on, he’s been head and shoulders above everyone else, and even when he’s been off, he still alters the game in positive ways that don’t show up in the box score, much like…well, much like Frank.
Marcus Morris, if you can get past the three to six shots per game that he either shouldn’t take at all or should be taking behind the line, has also been a massive positive. Mitch has had his moments. Even Julius Randle, for as much frustration as he causes, has drawn more attention on defense than the rest of the roster combined.
But what Ntilikina has brought on a consistent basis in the form of unselfishness, tenacity, detail, and just a bit of flare for the dramatic has been perhaps the most necessary ingredient to this team’s success when it has indeed found some.
And to think, they may or may not have tried to dump him for a second round pick this summer. Maybe that was in the back of David Fizdale’s mind after the game when he talked about how meaningful this blossoming has been, both to Frank and to him as Frank’s coach, after all they’ve been through together. Who knows…maybe for all the jokes about his treatment of Ntilikina last season, it was that tough love that helped fortify the player we’re now seeing.
There’s still farther to go, of course. Ntilikina took just one shot in the fourth quarter - a missed three - and was again a bit too willing to defer. That’s his nature, and always will be. But in a league and especially on a team that has too many guys who take bad shots, there’s still something about that willingness I find refreshing.
Why has it all finally started to come together? I’ll let someone far wiser than me answer that question:
Unpopular Opinion
I’m OK with Marcus Morris taking 22 shots, several of them bad
It was a Fiz move you could see coming a mile away: letting a respected vet and team leader more or less have carte blanche in his return to his hometown.
At the end of the day, I’m OK with it for two reasons: first, Mook has an effective field goal percentage of .495, which is worldbeater-level stuff on this team. Second, and more importantly, whether or not Fizdale gets continued buy-in from this entire roster is perhaps the most important question about this season.
Remember: the end goal here is to function like a normal organization…that means playing hard, winning some game, letting the kids grow in a healthy, productive environment, and not letting go of the rope in a long season. Giving Morris free reign last night furthers that goal, because it shows his guys he will be in their corner if it’s at all humanly possible. He’ll also need Morris on his side if he’s going to hold this thing together if and when the going gets rough again (and it surely will).
That being said…
Broken Record
(me)
Here’s the shot chart from last night (Knicks are on the left), which is not all that dissimilar from most of New York’s shot charts this year.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks currently take the 4th highest frequency of long two’s in the league. The three teams ahead of them - San Antonio, Indiana and Golden State - are the 10th, sixth and fifth most accurate teams from that distance. The Knicks are 21st.
In other news, the Knicks are the 10th most accurate team from deep in the league, and first overall on corner threes…yet are 28th in frequency of long balls.
I’m not saying it’s easy, but they have to figure out how to turn some of these long twos into threes. As my old podcast colleague Zach DiLuzio said last night…
C’mon. We can do this.
Stat of the Night
10 / 8
That’s how many turnovers and steals the Knicks had last night, respectively.
Since New York had their early-season woes giving away the ball, they’ve averaged only 13.5 turnovers over their last 11 games. On the flip side, they’re 10th in steals per game (and 7th in steals per 100 possessions) on the year.
They’re suddenly taking care of the ball, and on the other end, their often imperfect defense does result in a lot of swipes, as they’re in passing lanes trying to generate easy points on the break (Frank and RJ have been particularly good at this).
More, please.
Final Thought
Losing sucks. But sometimes, you have to appreciate the good that comes with it.
Last night is one to be happy about, especially after what we’ve been through this year.
Knicks Stock Watch
These are the biggest PredictionStrike risers and fallers on the Knicks after last night’s game. Looking at prices, even though $3.35 is a little steep, now might be as good a time as any to get in on Mitch, especially if you’re planning on keeping him for a while.
Here are his per 36 minute numbers last year compared to this season:
He’s going to get even better once he gets his footing, which, with the exception of a few games, he really hasn’t had yet. He’ll also unquestionably be starting games by the second half of the year, if not sooner. No better time to get in than now.
(By the way, for anyone who hasn’t yet tried out PredictionStrike, don’t forget to use code KFS when you sign up to get $10 of free money to play with. If you’re hesitant, I get it, but take my word for it: an investment of $30 - what I started out with - is more than worth the little buzz you get every morning when you check your portfolio. Click here to give it a whirl.)
Help Us Help Others!!!
Our Thanksgiving Drive is going strong!
Look at Frank Ntilikina putting me in the poor house. Before Monday’s game, I committed to donate $2 for every point Frank scored over the Knicks next four games.
Well, halfway through, I’m already on the hook for $46 - enough for more than one full Thanksgiving dinner for a needy New York City family!
There’s still time to make a stat-related commitment with the Knicks’ two games coming up this weekend, or to just make a donation! And thanks to everyone who has already gotten on board!
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Posting & Toasting had their always excellent wrap up from a fun game.
James Dolan loves him some David Fizdale. Sure.
RJ Barrett is growing, every damn day.
On This Date: Knicks trade Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
On the road to the summer of LeBron, Knicks GM Donnie Walsh traded Jamal Crawford to the Golden State Warriors for Al Harrington. He subsequently traded Zach Randolph for Cuttino Mobley & Tim Thomas. The contracts acquired all expired before the start of 2010 Free Agency.
That’s it for today…see everyone tomorrow!