Avoiding the Crocodiles
How to fix the Knicks offense
I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books as a kid.
They combined a great sense of excitement with the safety of knowing that if you fell into a chasm or were attacked by a tiger or contracted the Bubonic plague (did yours not have that as a possible outcome?), you could just flip back a few pages and all would be well.
If only David Fizdale had that as an option.
We are eight games into the season, and thus far, he has tried out five different starting lineups, with a sixth different one highly likely to debut tonight thanks to Mitchell Robinson being out with a concussion. If that does indeed transpire and we include the preseason, tonight would make eight different lineups in 13 games. The Knicks have two wins to show for their trouble.
The problem is that David Fizdale continues to go into the same spooky cave without a flashlight, all the while thinking the result will change simply because he is wearing a different hat.
Sadly, it hasn’t worked out that way. As a result, he and the Knicks continue to walk headfirst into the same pit of doom: a starting lineup that doesn’t have enough shooting.
I spoke about this extensively on today’s KFS podcast (are you subscribed? Subscribe!) with Posting & Toasting’s Dallas Amico, who astutely pointed out that the Knicks’ current starting lineup includes not a single legitimate deep threat.
Sure, RJ Barrett, with his early-season Splash Brother impersonation, is sort of a threat, as is Marcus Morris, who is hitting 46.7 percent from deep on the year. But even with both of those guys shooting at a higher-than-expected clip, any defensive possession that ends with a current Knick starter taking even a lightly contested three is a huge win for the opponent. Defenses are thrilled to give up such looks because it allows them to crowd the paint and make life difficult for the man who has been the sputtering engine of the Knicks offense thus far, Julius Randle.
Julius Randle, to be clear, can be a brilliant offensive basketball player (we won’t talk about his defense from the last few games, because it’s Friday, I’m in a good mood, and I’d like to keep it that way). Last season, he played 650 possessions without Anthony Davis but with Jrue Holiday and Darius Miller, the Pels best deep threat from a year ago. According to Cleaning the Glass, those lineups scored 119.7 points per 100 possessions, which would have led the league by a mile.
The reason they worked (aside from the fact that Jrue Holiday is really, really freaking good) is because Randle was surrounded by shooting and didn’t have to do too much. This year, he’s been surrounded by no shooting and he’s being asked to do everything.
So let’s get some more shooting into the starting lineup, right?
And with that, our adventure begins…
To insert Kevin Knox for Marcus Marris, turn to page 3.
To insert Wayne Ellington for Marcus Morris, turn to page 5.
Ahhhh…both times we get stuck in the mud! Or is it elephant poop? Does it make a difference? This analogy has gone off the rails.
Why didn’t this work? On it’s face, putting even one of these guys in the starting five should accomplish the intended purpose. Let’s start with Knox, who is the closest thing this team has to a legit deep threat (Think about it: every time the ball leaves his hands this year, you think it’s going in, right? Can you say that about any other Knick?)
As for Ellington, I know people are already ready to pull the plug, but this is a man who has fired over 2500 3-pointers in his career and made them at a 38 percent clip. Many of these also have a higher-than-normal degree of difficulty, as his specialty is coming off screens and shooting almost while he’s still in motion.
The problem here is that in either scenario, you’re only inserting one plus shooter, and doing it at the expense of probably the best deep threat in your starting lineup already: Morris. It’s borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. At the end of the day, you’re still in tattered rags.
This solution also means you’re taking arguably your most consistently sound defender off the court. No Bueno.
To insert Knox or Ellington in for Frank Ntilikina, turn to page 8.
Wow, I didn’t know a firing squad could appear in a children’s book.
We saw this play out already, when Ellington started at Orlando. 83 points later and we knew that Point RJ was best left in small doses, if used at all.
So whether it’s Frank or Payton or DSJ or Kadeem Allen or Walt Frazier, a real point guard needs to be in the mix somewhere, and sadly none of them can be considered a plus shooter (sorry Clyde).
To Insert Bobby Portis in for Mitchell Robinson, turn to page 10
Aaaaaaand the book just lit on fire. Luckily I purchased two copies.
To Insert Taj Gibson in for Mitchell Robinson, turn to page 13
Oh no…attacked by a swarm of angry gnats! They’re in my orifices!
There’s a delicate balance this team needs to achieve between development and winning. At this point, it seems like those two things aren’t really at odds, as their youngest, most high-pedigree guys have largely been their best.
This would tilt the scales too much in the wrong direction.
It’s not that there aren’t benefits. Taj sets one of the meanest screens in the league - something that would also help juice the offense, albeit not nearly as much as more spacing - and he can hit a corner three.
Still, defenders would shade off him nearly as much as they would Robinson if he were off the to the side. The benefits of this wouldn’t nearly outweigh the drawbacks.
To Insert Kevin Knox or Wayne Ellington for RJ Barrett, turn to the unemployment line.
Well that’s just not very nice.
So if you’ve been following along, we’ve realized that:
The Knicks need to start a real point guard, and none of those guys are going to stretch an offense in a away that makes the defense actually bite.
Mitchell Robinson is the only real center on the team, they need his defense, and they should be invested in his development.
RJ is not going anywhere.
Inserting a shooter in for Marcus Morris isn’t going to make enough of a difference, the drawbacks may actually outweigh the costs.
That means there’s only one solution left…
To Insert Kevin Knox or Wayne Ellington for Julius Randle, turn to page 15 and pray
The Knicks have spent the better part of a year talking about culture, accountability and “doing things the right way.” Now it might have to be put to the test.
David Fizdale sending Julius Randle to the bench could either result in him stumbling into a pack of lions or escaping the jungle to safety.
If such a move is the right one - and by all evidence we have, that certainly can’t be ruled out, at least given the pieces on this particular roster - then what happens if Fiz send the organization’s $63 million free agent prize to the bench? Would Randle be up for maintaining his role as team leader, but as a sixth man? Would he cause holy hell in the locker room? Or would he still be OK getting 30 minutes a night and being the fulcrum of the offense, just not in a starting role?
If all of the above questions can be answered in a positive way, the move makes sense on too many levels to not at least try out. It wouldn’t solve every problem, but inserting Knox for Randle and then surrounding Julius with Wayne Ellington (who should find getting open looks easier against bench units), Bobby Portis and his Pelicans pal Elfrid Payton ticks some different boxes. Then fill in the blanks from there.
What would it take for this to actually happen? Maybe a 3-20 start, maybe a different coach, maybe a trade, or maybe all of the above.
Either way, it’s time to start thinking outside the box for possible solutions. There can be good ending to this story, somewhere amidst all the dangers lurking in the darkness.
It’s just a matter of having the guts to pick the right path.
Come drink & watch the Knicks for a good cause!
Don’t forget: all of the Knicks content creators will be getting together to root hard against Slimey the Snake this Thursday at Penn 6 (31st Street, just off 7th Ave.), starting at 7 pm. We’ll be raffling off tickets to a game later this season, and part of all proceeds from the evening will go towards our KFS Thanksgiving Drive, in which we’re raising money to help feed needy families on Turkey Day with the help of Feeding NYC.
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
This might be burying the lead, but Madison Square Garden is planning to spin off its entertainment unit. I didn’t start the letter with this because I refuse to get excited about what we all know this might mean until it is actually closer to happening, especially since we’re not nearly there yet:
This is the biggest news about MSG spin-off: Activist investors were looking to capitalize on Dolan’s cash needs for MSG Sphere project by purchasing a 1/3 stake from MSG before spin-off. Now, Dolan will keep his controlling interest in teams and investors left to stock purchase https://t.co/qEQApxWoH8Previously the new entertainment company (MSG Sphere and MSG and Dolan's venues) were supposed to keep about a 1/3 stake in the sports side (Knicks, Rangers, G League team, gaming, Greenburgh training center). Now they would be two separate companies. https://t.co/XwYFDdaPJV
Mike Vorkunov @MikeVorkunovKristaps Porzingis reportedly was totally committed to the Knicks just weeks before demanding to be traded, which was a report that conveniently leaked just hours before he stood in front of a microphone and said all kinds of nice things about his time in New York. This totally checks out, wasn’t at all rehearsed, and we should all probably forget the fact that he Inta’d a photo of himself sprinting last November 8 in a fairly obvious attempt to make his head coach (who was trying to do his star a solid by tampering expectations about his possible return - a return we now know he never intended to make) look like an asshole. Moving along.
David Fizdale said finding the right lineup combos has been his biggest challenge. Gold star for pinning the tail on the donkey without a blindfold on.
Clearly, someone isn’t subscribing to this newsletter. C’mon Dave. I know you might have to be clipping coupons a few weeks from now, but it’s FREE for goodness sake…
Lastly, always read Shwin from P&T, especially when it’s really good, which is basically always.
Knicks Kicks
by Tiffany Salmon (@tiffstarr815)
On This Date: “Bomb Squad” roster wins their first regular season game against the Chicago Bulls
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
After losing the first two games of the regular season on the road, the Knicks got back into control in the friendly confines of Madison Square Garden. Johnny Newman scored a then-career high 35 points in a 126-117 home victory against the Chicago Bulls in Madison Square Garden. Newman scored 35 efficiently, shooting 12-15 from the field, 2-3 from three, and 9-10 from the free throw line.
That’s it! Knicks in Dallas tonight. If you’re going to go 2-80, can tonight be the other win? Please?