Bad Boys 2.0?

Are the 2004 Pistons a good comp for this year's Knicks? We dive deep into the differences between the NBA now vs 20 years ago to find the answer.

Good morning! Today’s newsletter features a deep dive into the NBA of yesteryear. 20 years may not seem like a long time, but the numbers say it was a different world back then. More on that in a bit. First up though, a few bits of news and some further schedule analysis.

News & Notes

🏀 According to Marc Stein, the Knicks “recently auditioned free agent center Omer Yurtseven, among others, but did not elect to sign him.” Yurtseven spent last season in Utah after two years in Miami.

This would seem to indicate that the team remains less than satisfied with its current big man situation. As a reminder, New York still has one open roster spot.

🏀 Makhtar Ndiaye, who has been a Knicks scout for the last nine years, is leaving to join the Dallas Mavericks as director of pro personnel and international scouting. Ndiaya confirmed the news himself with a nice goodbye to the organization and the fans:

🏀 According to Michael Scotto of Hoops Hype, Jericho Sims will have his $2.09 million salary fully guaranteed for the upcoming season. This shouldn’t come as a surprise given New York’s need for big man depth, and the fact that Sims makes the minimum.

🏀 Fellow Substacker Jared Dubin performed an interesting schedule analysis in his most recent newsletter, which I strongly recommend for all fans of the league. In it, he grouped all teams by their most difficult stretches, looking at each team’s toughest 5-game span all the way up to its hardest 10-game span.

His results were very favorable to the Knicks, whose toughest 10-game stretch is the easiest of any team’s hardest stretch of 10 games (I hope that made sense). The average over/under of the teams they play during that most difficult stretch (which takes place from February 8 to March 4 and features games vs Boston, Indy, Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Boston again, Philly, Memphis, Miami and Golden State) is 46.3. By comparison, the Suns have the hardest 10-game stretch in the league, with an average opponent over/under of 51.5.

Looking at the other “hardest” stretches for the Knicks, they fare well across the board. Their toughest 9-game stretch is the 4th easiest league-wide, their toughest 8-game stretch is 3rd easiest, their toughest 6 & 7-game stretches are 6th easiest, and their toughest 5-game stretch is 10th easiest. In essence, as much as anyone in the league, the Knicks get pockets of smooth sailing amidst the bumpiest parts of their schedule. We’ll see if it makes a difference.

Dubin’s analysis inspired me to do a little digging of my own in light of the recent Ian Begley report that Julius Randle and especially Mitchell Robinson may not be fully healthy by the time camp starts. Even though New York’s opening stretch isn’t their most difficult 10-game span of the season (it’s the second toughest, by my math), it’s a pretty brutal way to come out of the gate if multiple key pieces are still recovering from injury. But will those games - at Boston, vs Indy, vs Cleveland, at Miami, at Detroit, at Houston, at Atlanta, vs Milwaukee, at Indy and at Philly - go a long way in determining whether they can finish at the top of the East?

Not necessarily. I took a look at the last five seasons and went back to see how each of the top four playoff seeds in each conference fared over their first 10 games. Here’s what I found:

As you can see, getting off to a hot start isn’t a prerequisite to finish with a strong seed, especially in the East. Among the 20 eventual top-four East seeds over the last five years, half started off 6-4 or worse, including three eventual two-seeds. The West has had it a bit tougher, with fewer tankers and more quality depth, but even there, seven top-four seeds started 6-4 or worse, including last year’s top-seeded Thunder.

Assuming New York can get wins against the two likely lottery teams (Detroit and Atlanta), they should be able to go at least .500 in the other eight games.

History says that should be good enough.

Bad Boys 2.0?

Today’s topic comes from the always curious Oakster, who has an interesting comparison in mind for this year’s Knicks:

This might be an interesting article for the slow summer days: comparing our squad to the 2003-2008 Pistons teams that made the Eastern Conference Finals six years in a row. I know it was a different era but would be an interesting comp.

Any analysis of those Detroit teams has to start with their dominant defense, especially during their championship year, but really for the entire run.