Break Up the Knicks
BREAK THEM UP NOW!
In this newsletter:
Well this is nice.
If I had to start off this decade stricken with the flu, I’m happy I can at least be rooting for a competent basketball team at the same time.
That’s all this season was supposed to feature, after all. Not a playoff team. Not even a good team. Just one that could get out of its own way, and occasionally make life difficult enough for opponents such that they couldn’t get out of theirs.
On that note, we’re wasting no time this morning and getting right to the categories, which will be a little out of order (but with good reason)…
Stat of the Night
3
That’s how many consecutive games the Knicks have held their opponent to under 40 percent shooting from the floor, following Portland hitting just 39.4 percent of their looks last night. According to BasketballReference.com, it’s the first time New York has held its opponents to such a mark of futility since very late in the 2013-14 season, and only the second time since February of 2004.
Since Mike Miller took over and simplified the defensive scheme, the Knicks are giving up 108.6 points per 100 possessions, good for 14th in the league over that span and a sliver behind the Warriors, who are ranked 11th at 108.5. Considering they gave up approximately (checks notes) 9,000 points combined to the Bucks and Nuggets in the two games before David Fizdale got fired, this seems notable.
They’ve made this turnaround by taking a page out of the books of all the “smart” teams in the league over the last few years - the Milwaukee’s, Utah’s, Orlando’s and Brooklyn’s of the world - and selling out to wall off the paint. You’ve seen this stat here a few times now, but it can’t be hammered home enough: under Miller, only three teams give up fewer looks at the rim than the Knicks. Under Fiz, they were 21st in the NBA.
It’s far from perfect. The Knicks give up a bazillion threes, and sometimes (like in back to back losses against Miami and Milwaukee) this bites them in the ass. Under Miller, only the Bucks and Spurs give up a greater frequency of above the break 3-pointers. Many of these looks are, if not open, not exactly closely contested, mostly because New York doesn’t yet have the personnel (outside of Frank Ntilikina) to give a good contest without risking a blow by. More moving parts equals more breakdowns.
But it’s a plan that at least gives them a chance more often than not. And that by itself is a good thing.
Made Me Smile
The below play, for two reasons.
1) as Tom Piccolo explains, this is a really nifty play call which nets the team a great shot attempt after some very cohesive movement and passing:
That’s not why it was my favorite play of the night though. No, that’s because of…
2) Kevin Knox, doing the little things. Knox has (correctly) been accused of occasionally playing without the requisite awareness and attention to detail you need to be a successful NBA player. Here, even though the play isn’t designed for him, he stays engaged and times his re-entry into the possession perfectly, resulting in a basket that gives New York back the lead.
We’re seeing more and more of these little signs from Knox every game. Last night represented the third time the Knicks outscored their opponent by double figures during Knox’s minutes under Mike Miller. It happened four times in 96 games under Fiz.
Once he can get his shot on track again (I have little doubt this will happen) and Marcus Morris and Bobby Portis get moved to free up some more time in the frontcourt (ditto), Knox should be in for a nice second half of the year.
Porn
New category, just to appreciate what we’ve started to see from Frank Ntilikina and Mitchell Robinson on a nightly basis:
It’s an absurdly small sample size of 25 minutes, to the point of probably not worth mentioning, but since Ntilikina was moved to the bench, the Knicks have a positive 34.7 net rating with both he and Robinson on the court.
This is just to say that I want to see more of it (hence the name of the category). Fizdale tried to force the DSJ/Mitch pairing on us, and while there was some logic behind that, Frank and Mitch makes a lot more sense. Ntilikina gets into the lane just fine and with more than enough initial burst. His Go Go Gadget arms allow him to toss the ball above any defenders hanging with him on the play, and having Robinson there as the best lob outlet in the league helps nullify the weakest part of Frank’s game (finishing at the rim).
Well, it was weak, until…
More Porn
I mean, yes, please:
Get Mitchell Robinson to All-Star Weekend
Following a night where he took 11 shots and didn’t miss - only the third time a Knick has ever pulled off such a feat - Mitchell Robinson has now hit over 70 percent of his field goal attempts for the season.
Among players who have made at least 100 baskets this year, Robinson’s 70.7 percent conversion rate now ranks first in the league. He is also second behind only planet-eating Steven Adams in offensive rebounding rate (12.8 percent; Adams is at 13.0) among players who have played at least 15 games and are seeing over 20 minutes a night.
Oh, and the defense. Like I mentioned earlier in the week, according to Cleaning the Glass, teams are shooting 12.5 percent worse at the rim with Robinson in the game, which is the best in the sport. Robinson is also preventing opponents’ transition opportunities (1.9 percent less when he’s in the game, in the 88th percentile league-wide) and putback chances (22 fewer points per 100 chances; 91st percentile).
With all of the above, it makes stuff like this icing on the cake:
This year, the Rookie/Sophomore Game and the Dunk Contest. Next year, the real thing.
Final Thought
A 6-6 record in 12 games feels so neat and tidy, especially in comparison to the 4-18 abomination that preceded it. Mike Miller is a better coach for this team, at this time, than David Fizdale was. Of this, I don’t think there can be any more doubt.
Now comes the tough part. We still haven’t seen enough to draw any bigger picture conclusions about whether the direction of the franchise under this front office is any less fraught than it was a month ago.
But we’re getting closer to having that conversation. If the Knicks can somehow survive their impending West Coast trip - including games against both LA behemoths - and the shine is still on their rose, then we can ask some of those questions.
For right now though, let’s just enjoy the good times while they’re here, and appreciate the fact that this team has one or two truly special young players, some other kids who are taking slow and steady steps in the right direction, and vets that are helping rather than hindering the cause.
In comparison to where they were four weeks ago, we should all be happy with that.
Player Spotlight
Hopefully you took my final advice of 2019 and invested in Mitch before last night’s game; he was at $2.99, and is now trading at $3.23. Get in while you still can if you haven’t already (and use code KFS to get $10 added to your initial $10 PredictionStrike investment if you haven’t already).
I’m going to go for two - yes, TWO - pieces of solid investing advice in a row by spotlighting one of my favorite players in the league ahead of tomorrow night’s road tilt in Phoenix: Ricky Rubio.
I still remember the trading deadline nearly three years ago when it looked like the Knicks might land Rubio for a middling price. Alas, it never happened, he went on to have nice success in Utah, and has now sporting career highs in points and assists for the Suns.
But Rubio is coming off one of his worst games of the season (six points in 26 minutes against the Lakers), and as a result, his projections for the game vs New York will be lower than usual. His stock price is at $4.10, right around where he’s been all year, but down 8 percent.
I say it’s a close game but Rubio shines.
Keeping Pace With The New-Look Knicks
by Tom Piccolo (@Tom_Piccolo)
After the Knicks’ 107-100 win against a severely depleted Washington Wizards team on Saturday, Julius Randle was asked about why his play has improved in recent games. He told the Associated Press: “A little bit into the season, we’re learning how to play off each other a little bit better. Playing a little faster…”
I was struck by that last comment about playing faster. Throughout his tenure, David Fizdale frequently talked about playing with more pace, but like a lot of things he said, it never came to fruition.
In Fizdale’s 22 games this season, the Knicks ranked 27th in the league in pace, per PBP stats, averaging 97.45 possessions per game. Since Miller took over, it’s been a different story. Their renewed urgency reminds me of how I start hustling when I’m late to meet a friend and they call to ask me where I am. The Knicks are playing like they just lied about being five minutes away.
In their past 11 games under Miller, New York is averaging 99.42 possessions per game, good for 14th in the league during that span. They are playing faster despite turning the ball over less frequently AND forcing fewer turnovers with their more conservative defensive scheme (more on that later). That means they are pushing more frequently off of defensive stops and getting into their offense faster.
Mailbag Podcast!
I answered your questions on the latest pod, getting into topics like the practice facility, trading for KAT, other possible deals, and much more:
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Nothing better than a P&T recap from Alex Wolfe after a game like last night.
Tommy Beer has some thoughts on trading DSJ.
Finally the Knicks maybe thought about trading for Boogie a while ago.
On This Date: Knicks win 3OT Thriller against the Phoenix Suns
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
In one of the lone highlights of Larry Brown’s Knick tenure, the Knicks outlasted the Suns 140-133 in triple overtime. Stephon Marbury led the Knicks with 32 points and 10 assists in 54 minutes. Jamal Crawford scored 29 off the bench and had 7 rebounds and 7 assists each in 48 minutes of action.
That’s it for today…see everyone tomorrow!