Briefing: June 12
Processing the post-KD injury landscape
Good Morning,
Frank Ntilikina has been named to France’s initial 15-man squad for the FIBA World Cup, per Equpe France Basket.
Coach Vincent Collet: "Frank Ntilikina is a defensive specialist and he does not have a guaranteed place, but that's where he starts the preparation.”
RJ Barrett’s visit with the Knicks this week went “very well” and Barrett “connected” with the Knicks at dinner, per Jordan Schultz.
Rich Paul on the allure of the Knicks to Anthony Davis: “They don’t have as many championships as the Lakers. They got a tradition. It’s a big market—not that it’s only big markets. They have cap space, flexibility, they’re able to absorb more than one star. What’s wrong with that?” [read more]
Paul says the Celtics would only be a one-year rental. Davis prefers the Lakers or Knicks long-term.
Teams still interested in Durant. While teams wait on official news on Durant’s injury, Bobby Marks says he spoke to three teams who would still offer him a max contract this summer, even without injury protections.
David Aldridge: “the likelihood remains that all of the New York/L.A. teams will stay in the hunt for Durant on July 1.” [read more]
Ian Begley confirms that “some members of the [Knicks] organization would consider offering Durant a contract this summer.”
Meanwhile, Adrian Wojnarowski says of Durant’s decision this summer, “I think opting in is the last resort.”
Knicks interested in Kemba Walker. Adrian Wojnarowski says Charlotte still needs to decide on an offer for Walker, and whether they guarantee a 5th year. If Walker makes it to free agency, he lists the Knicks as one of the teams interested in signing him.
Fizdale recruiting Thor? Just watch…
New look for Mitchell Robinson…
John Calipari likes Kevin Knox’s upside
John Calipari was a guest on MSG 150 last night. Obviously, he knows Knox from coaching him at Kentukcy.
"He just turned 19," Calipari said. "And I said all you people got to be patient up there – the coach has got to be patient. [Knicks general manager] Scottie [Perry's] got to be patient. They’ve got to be patient because he’s [19]. His upside is off-the-chain, but it’s going to take him some time. ...And you know what? He showed signs."
Calipari also believes the Knicks should go hard for Kentucky product Anthony Davis.
"I mean, he is one of the nicest, neatest persons and he could deal with New York because he played at Kentucky and won a national title," Calipari said in the interview. "It’s not just that he played here and he played in tough games and all that. He won the national title, which is why he was picked where he was."
Processing the post-KD injury landscape
MUST LISTEN: Tommy Beer joins the Knicks Film School Podcast [iTunes | SoundCloud]
On the pod I recorded yesterday with the always insightful Tommy Beer, I started to make my case as to why I thought the Knicks should still make every attempt to sign Kevin Durant this summer.
Part of that case included something I'd thought of involving another one of New York's franchises I root for, the New York Mets. The guy that came to mind was Pedro Martinez, and how when the Mets signed him as a 33-year-old in 2005, it was as much about what he bought them off the field as for what he did on it.
Sure enough, he had an up and down tenure that featured two All-Star game appearances, more than a few injuries and an unsightly 5.61 ERA during his last year in a Mets uniform. It was about what you'd expect.
He also helped bring legitimacy back to an organization that had bottomed out since the Subway Series, helping them reach the National League Championship Series, where they were one Carlos Beltran-caught-looking-strikeout away from making the World Series.
Does any of that happen without Pedro? Maybe, maybe not. But I remember clearly the day they signed him and the discernible whiff of "the Mets are back" that was in the air. He was the first domino to fall, and the rest followed.
It goes without saying that baseball and basketball are incredibly different sports, and the rules and structures of MLB and the NBA are just as disparate. Pedro is remembered somewhat fondly here, yet it's doubtful that would be the case if he was taking up a third of the salary cap while starting just five games during his third season here.
Baseball, of course, has no salary cap, and even if you do have a contract albatross on your roster, there's cheap talent everywhere you look.
The NBA is a different animal. One misplaced bet on a max player (or at least a player getting paid the max) can submarine a franchise for years. Knicks fans know this as well as anyone, having endured the later years of the Amare Stoudemire and Allan Houston contracts. Ask the Wiz how they're feeling about John Wall's extension that hasn't even kicked in yet, or the Rockets with Chris Paul.
Signing Kevin Durant, who will almost certainly not play next season and likely won't be himself another year after that, is fraught with all kinds of peril. He may already be 33 by the time he gets fully back to form, an age when even stars start to decline.
And that's if he ever even returns to form. There is a distinct possibility he doesn't.
So yeah, the arguments against pursuing the one path the Knicks have been certain about for over a year are real, and I don't begrudge anyone for making them. The safer route - assuming Durant doesn't opt in, making this conversation moot - is to take your swing at Kawhi Leonard, and if you strike out, make smart use of your cap by acquiring other teams bad expiring money and continue to build up what is quickly becoming a nice haul of picks.
I wouldn't begrudge the Knicks brass for doing exactly that.
Here's the thing though: assuming they don't land Kawhi (which even the most optimistic fan would admit is a stretch), what really is the opportunity cost of signing Durant to a four year deal?
Take it year by year. This summer, you may bypass the chance to take on one or two of those contracts I referenced, and lose a pick or two in the process. That is a real cost, but with the new lottery odds, no team is going to send out unprotected picks anymore, so the reward on those lottery tickets are capped. Signing KD also still leaves them with over $30 million to use in creative ways, so all is not lost.
That brings us to next summer, which is famously bereft of star free agent talent sans Anthony Davis. If AD gets traded to the Lakers, he's never going to hit free agency anyway. If he doesn't, the Knicks would still theoretically have enough space to sign him to a max contract outright. What would be more appealing at that point: joining a 35-year-old LeBron James in LA or a 32-year-old Kevin Durant raring to get back on the court?
If they strike out, wash, rinse and repeat what you did this summer again, using your cap space to the best of your abilities.
That takes us to the summer of 2021, when the Knicks young core won't be so young anymore and will (hopefully) be ready to start winning in a big way. That's also (assuming he doesn't sign the Supermax next July) the summer of Giannis, a derby the Knicks will most certainly be in. Just like 2020 with AD in this scenario, the Knicks will still have enough space to sign him, as Kevin Knox and (I'm assuming) RJ Barrett will still be on rookie deals, and Mitchell Robinson (assuming they decline the team option on the last year of his contract to make him a restricted free agent) will have a super low cap hold.
Remember when…
June 12, 1994: Knicks fall to the Houston Rockets 93-89 in the first NBA Finals game at Madison Square Garden since 1973. Knicks are led by Derek Harper’s 21 points, John Starks, 20, and Patrick Ewing’s 18.
Thanks for reading, talk to you tomorrow!