Briefing: June 18
It's time to talk about Julius
Good Morning,
The Knicks are unlikely to move out of the 3rd spot in Thursday’s draft, according to Steve Popper and Marc Berman. While Cleveland is looking to move up and Atlanta is stocked with picks as a potential partner to trade down, the Knicks seem content picking whomever falls to them at 3, either Barrett or Morant.
Berman notes, “While the Knicks were open to moving back after the lottery for a whopping offer, they are now comfortable staying put.”
Pels looking to nab Barrett? “[New Orleans] had internal talks about moving up [from the 4th spot] to the second pick to take Memphis’ selection and draft RJ Barrett to team with his Duke compadre Zion Williamson. Barrett and Williamson are best friends.” [Marc Berman]
Scott Perry saw RJ Barrett play in person FOUR times at Duke, according to Marc J. Spears. Perry also was in attendance when Barrett played at the Garden on December 20th, along with Steve Mills, Allan Houston, Kevin Knox, and Emmanuel Mudiay.
Jamal Murray would take Barrett over Zion, via Marc J. Spears:
“Zion has definitely overshadowed RJ because of the hype. But I think RJ is more of a complete player in terms of what you are looking for. Zion is going to sell tickets. But if it was up to me, I would still take RJ.”
MUST READ: RJ Barrett is ready to take center stage by Andrew Sharp
Assistant Coach Shake-up
Mike Miller is expected to join David Fizdale’s staff as an assistant next year, per Ian Begley. Miller would fill the open spot left by Howard Eisley who recently joined Juwan Howard’s staff at Michigan.
Royal Ivey in demand. According to Ian Begley, “several teams with assistant coaching vacancies have expressed interest in Ivey. It is unknown if Ivey interviewed with any teams.”
Other notes
WATCH: Frank Ntilikina continues to work on his perimeter shooting in Dallas. He recently changed agents and has been working with trainers associated with his new agency.
Kawhi possible? Former Chicago Bull BJ Armstrong, who now works as an NBA agent, says the Knicks are “in the fold” for Kawhi Leonard this summer. [Watch]
Anthony Davis offer that never happened. According to The Athletic, “The Knicks discussed several assets in a potential offer — featuring Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith and the No. 3 overall pick and other draft compensation, league sources said — but never fully offered young forward Kevin Knox and prized center Mitchell Robinson, both of whom the franchise is very high on while the Pelicans were not believed to be.”
Kevin Knox reflects on rookie season
MSG Networks launched #RookieWeek on Monday, a full week of rookie-themed programming airing across the network’s linear, digital and social platforms in the lead up to the NBA Draft on Thursday.
And you even get to see us!
Knicks Film School has partnered with MSG Networks to provide content during rookie week.
It's time to talk about Julius
by Jonathan Macri
(BTW, I'll never hear that name and not immediately think of Arnold Schwarzenegger's character in Twins, which...kudos to the drugs taken by whoever thought up that as an idea for a movie. Easily a top 10 Arnold movie, with an argument for the Top 5, along with Terminator, T2, Predator and Kindergarten Cop. Don't @ me.)
Anyway, Julius Randle...Marc Berman had a snippet in the Post over the weekend that the Knicks are interested in the Pelicans big man who just opted out of $9 million for next season.
On its face, it fits the Perry script: former high pedigree lottery talent from a big time program that's shown signs but still hasn't quite put it all together at the next level, and one you might be able to get at a discount depending on where you see his eventual ceiling.
It's that last part that's going to cause ample debate among Knick fans over the next several weeks.
On one hand, it's not hard to craft an argument for Randle. There were seven players in the league this year that averaged over 20 points per game with at least a 60 true shooting percentage and a 25 usage rate: Giannis, Steph, Durant, KAT, Harden, Kawhi...and Randle. He's not yet 25 years old and added a 3-pointer to his arsenal last season, shooting 34% on nearly 200 attempts. He's not a great passer - 3.7 dimes per 36 last year, a hair above Kawhi and a tic below Nic Batum - but he does possess that ability, getting five or more assists 15 times last season, including one game with 10. Just looking at him and the way he moves, you'd think a solid if not good defender exists somewhere in his personage.
With or without KD, if you're the Knicks and Kawhi Leonard turns you down, there's certainly an argument for making a bet on Randle for multiple guaranteed years. Think Tobias Harris, whose four-year, $64 million extension looked like an overpay at first and who is now almost certainly going to get a max contract from someone.
Hell, if you're New York, would you rather have a 26-year-old Harris for $30 million a year, or a 24-year-old Randle for around half that?
If that was the only question, there's a very real case for Randle. But that isn't the only question. As everyone has been asking for months, if the Knicks' big game hunting goes awry, is there anyone in this class worth committing multiple years and many, many multiples of dollars to?
I've always been a fan of the philosophy that unless you're a contender and you want to bring in a "final piece of the puzzle," Andre Iguodala-type, it's never wise to sign a player to a contract that you can't trade in a pinch. Does Randle at, say...three years, $50 million qualify as "easily movable?" That's where digging a little deeper gives you some pause.
The issues begin with defense, so let's start there. According to Cleaning the Glass, in the 1754 possessions last season when Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Julius Randle shared the court, the Pelicans outscored opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions, scoring 116.2 and giving up 109.1. That's good!
There's only one problem...in the 1315 possessions AD and Jrue played without Randle, they outscored opponents by a whopping 11.6 points per 100 possessions. Not only did their defensive rating markedly improve to 105.2, a number that would have tied the Jazz for second best in the league, but their offense even got a little better as well. The eye test backs this up, and Randle - who was never considered even a good defender in LA, but at least showed signs of having that potential - took a step back on that front last year. In 2509 possessions without Davis backing him up last year, New Orleans gave up 115.3 points per 100 possessions - worse than the Knicks, if you need a comp.
Back to those non-Randle lineups...most of them featured AD at center and either Nikola Mirotic or Darius Miller at the four, two off-ball threats who don't need the ball to help an offense and can hold their own on the other end. It's a redux of the Enes Kanter argument that had my ears bleeding my mid-December: just because someone might be the "better" player in a vacuum doesn't always mean they're the best fit.
That's the thing with Randle: he's not an easy fit on most teams. Theoretically, New Orleans should have been the perfect situation for him, what with a five that can shoot it from deep who, along with Jrue Holiday, formed maybe the best high low combo in the entire league on the opposite end of the floor. If Holiday and Anthony Freaking Davis couldn't clean up for Randle's messes on defense, do we really think a still-learning Mitchell Robinson and Insert Starting Point Guard Here are going to do much better?
This gets us to the overarching question that will lord over every move the Knicks make that doesn't include signing Kawhi Leonard or, to a lesser extent, Kevin Durant: what will the purpose of their signings be?
It's easy to say, as I have many times, that if they can't get a true superstar, they should load up on toxic assets in exchange for draft picks...but as Shwin and I discussed on the pod this weekend, you need to balance out those moves with transactions that will also make for a better product on the floor. At some point, the kids need to learn how to win and play in a functional system on both ends. Better players help make that easier. The question is "which type of players?"
In a perfect world, they have their cake and eat it to by getting someone like old friend Danilo Galinari, an expiring contract who will raise the level of play at both ends. It's unclear whether he'll be an option though, and there will be other suitors if he is.
In that case, should they go for Randle, who represents arguably the top talent they can get at a reasonable cost, or overpay for a guy like Malcolm Brogdon, someone who will undoubtedly make those around him better but is likely to be untradeable the moment the ink is dry on his new deal (because you ain't getting that dude on the cheap)?
Should they open it up to older vets as well, and bring in a guy like Pat Beverly, who has a lower ceiling than both of the above names but will definitely help the - say it with me now - cul-ture, and at the right price, could probably be flipped to a contender for a small asset at the deadline?
This would definitely be the safest route, and Perry has played it safe more often than not since he came aboard. Ultimately though, they may see Randle (or a guy like D'Angelo Russell - a different conversation for a different day) as too good of an opportunity to pass up, and a talent worthy of investing years of development into to try and make the pieces around him fit. Theoretically, this is what good organizations do: get talented players for less than they're worth, and figure out the best way to build up their value, either to keep as a long term piece or move when the time is right. Are the Knicks ready to be that kind of an organization though? What you think of signing Randle likely depends on your answer to that question.
Either way, it's high risk, high reward. At some point, every franchise needs to step into that spotlight, and in a way that has real consequences (read: not Emmanuel Mudiay for peanuts). The only question is whether the Knicks are ready for their close up.
Remember when…
June 18, 1985: With the first pick in the 1985 NBA Draft, Knicks select center Patrick Ewing from Georgetown University. [Vivek Dadhania with more]
June 18, 1999: Knicks set a franchise record for fewest points scored in a playoff game (post shot clock), as they fall in San Antonio 80-67 in Game 2 of the NBA Finals.
Thanks for reading, talk to you tomorrow!