Briefing: June 26
Should the Knicks go after D’Angelo Russell?
Good Morning,
I left the house today without my laptop so I am doing this update from my phone, which means…we will jump right into Jonathan Macri’s piece on D’Angelo Russell.
Yesterday, Zach Lowe dropped a typical Zach Lowe piece, perfectly detailing the good and the bad that comes with signing 23-year-old, maybe-soon-to-be-unrestricted free agent D’Angelo Russell.
Russell has been on Knicks’ fans minds ever since the KD-to-BK buzz started gaining legitimate momentum. In theory, he’s a guy Scott Perry should shatter the “Only Break In Case of Emergency” max contract glass for, even though his game dictates he’s only a max-ish guy at best. After all, how many under-25 All-Stars does a team usually have the opportunity to sign at a premium position? On the surface, it’s a no brainer.
Below the surface, however, you’ll find some very legitimate questions – the ones that Lowe stated have executives around the league saying that despite all of Irving’s baggage (and knees), most would still take him over the Nets' young guard.
As Lowe writes, the concern over Russell begins with the fact that he doesn’t get to the line or the rim all that much. Even worse, when such opportunities present themselves, he sometimes hesitates. For whatever blow-by speed he possesses, he doesn’t use it often enough, and his 3-point shot is still a sizable notch below elite off-the-bounce threats like Steph, Dame and Kyrie – players who bend defenses at their will. Russell also relied an unhealthy amount on his floater game, which seems unsustainable.
These might seem like minor nitpicks, but they are the differences between All-Star and All-NBA, and between rings and also rans.
If you’re signing Russell to the max, you have to be banking on improvement in all of these areas so he can become a fully functioning offensive fulcrum. The defense, well…it leaves a bit to be desired, but if the offense came around, you’d deal with it.
The question is whether that’s a bet the Knicks want to make. In the piece, Lowe echoes the sentiments expressed by Ian Begley recently, stating that New York would likely opt against a move for the former Laker, instead seeking short-term deals with lesser players. On the Locked On Knicks podcast earlier this week, Marc Berman used Russell's name as an example of someone New York wouldn't give a max to.
(Interestingly enough, yesterday also saw a Marc J. Spears article drop that ran contrary to what Lowe, Begley and Berman reported, stating that several lower-tier free agents are on the Knicks radar. Interestingly enough, Russell was not among the players named.)
If New York is just trying to throw everyone's scent off, betting on Russell is going to be an expensive wager. While Lowe details all the teams that figure to be in the running for Russell’s services and why there’s reasons each one may not be sitting there with a four-year max offer, remember: all it takes is one idiot.
At the very least, even if the dollar figure is something less than the max, one has to think D-Lo is going to get four years somewhere, even if it’s at an amount slightly less than his max (4/100, perhaps?)
(BTW, I’m always uncomfortable using the "D-Lo" nickname for Russell. My wife’s name is Dolores and I may or may not have the same shorthand I use for D’Angelo tattooed somewhere on my personage under the words “Property of.” Vegas 2014 forever, baby!)
Committing four years to almost any player is a move that comes with uncertainty. Even a slight dip in Russell’s midrange production combined with a drop off in either his 3-point percentage or defense would make him the worst kind of NBA asset: an inefficient player who needs the ball to be successful. Remember all those nights wondering why Tim Hardaway Jr. couldn’t just be, like, 12% better and 18% more consistent? Russell’s passing alone makes that comp a bit of a stretch, but if he takes a small step back, it’s not as far off as you might think.
Of course, the biggest risk in signing Russell may not even be Russell himself, but the opportunity cost associated with the transaction.
Assuming the Knicks made this investment, it would likely spell the end for Dennis Smith Jr. in New York and certainly mean that the team would vanquish one of the max cap slots it recently opened up.
Depending on whether Kawhi Leonard signs a 1 + 1 to stay in Toronto and how Anthony Davis finds life as a LeBronaire in LA, next summer is likely to be a dud. The following year takes us to the Summer of Giannis, which the Knicks would be wise to enter with all options open. Committing four years to Russell doesn’t take that off the table as long as they keep all other contracts signed this summer on the shorter term. Theoretically, a core of Russell, RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson might be appealing to Antetokounmpo two years from now, especially if all other major markets cash in their chips this July and the Knicks are the best option left.
(Count me as one person praying the Bucks max out Khris Middleton, BTW. He’s a wonderful player but we just saw the limitations of a team where he and Eric Bledsoe were the second and third bananas. Committing almost $200 million to him could wind up winning them the battle but losing the war)
So yes, if Russell continues on the upward trend, ifthe Knicks are wise with the rest of their cap and ifthe next two years go as we figure, maybe getting Brooklyn’s sloppy seconds wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
But if the Knicks have learned nothing from their crosstown rivals (not to mention the recently crowned NBA champions), it should be this: buy low and sell high, not the other way around.
Given the noise surrounding New York’s summer plans and his uneven (albeit brief) performance as a Knick, Dennis Smith Jr. has become something of a forgotten man. It’s almost like he's become a throw-in from the KP deal, and his reputation around the league is…well, it’s right around where D’Angelo Russell’s was about two years ago.
The Nets were wise to have patience with Russell, and figured out a way to blend his unique talents with what they were building. Yes, they needed a little bit of quirky luck (as Lowe points out, this was Caris LaVert’s team until the former Wolverine went down with what at first looked like a season-ending injury) but despite some bumps early on, they stuck with D-Lo and bet on his talent eventually shining through.
In his short career, Smith Jr. has already shown more defensive aptitude than Russell ever has, and gets to the rim more than almost any guard in the league. He also saw a significant uptick in free throws after coming to New York, averaging 4.4 attempts per 36 minutes as a Knick to Russell’s 3.0 last season. His 31 % conversion rate from deep is obviously a massive concern, but he’s far from a lost cause. Russell shot 32% from long range the season before last, and Kemba Walker was at 31% over the first four years of his career.
Those players obviously worked their butts off to make the necessary improvements that took their respective games to the next level. Ultimately, New York’s decision on Russell – who at the very least has proven himself to be someone willing to put in the long hours to improve his game – should depend on whether they think Smith is cut from the same cloth.
Seeing Smith and Russell in the same backcourt, especially with RJ Barrett seemingly slotted to start at the two, is unlikely. Were the Knicks to sign Russell, one has to imagine DSJ wouldn’t take kindly to the likely demotion and rock the boat enough to get dealt. As we saw with KP, this front office clearly only wants guys in the locker room who are fully bought into the program.
So ask yourself, what’s the wiser play here: commit six figures to a young but lower-tier All-Star and trade Smith for peanuts – maybe a heavily protected future pick, a high second or an extremely distressed asset – or take the chance that he follows in Russell’s path and turns his career around, all while making comparative pennies on the dollar for the next two seasons?
One final thing to keep in mind: if the money you’d otherwise be spending on Russell is distributed elsewhere on better surrounding talent (think one and two year overpays on talented but definitively non-max supporting pieces – your Marcus Morrises, Patrick Beverlies and such), it might help open up the offense for Smith to finally be able to operate with some spacing – something he most certainly didn’t have in his short time with the Knicks last season.
We’ve been saying all year: this front office will show its meddle not by things going right, but how they respond if things go wrong. If their big bets don’t pay off, they’ll still be holding a pile of chips. Betting on Russell wouldn’t be going all in, but it would be close. Here’s hoping they hold off, at least until the next hand.
Thanks for reading, talk to you tomorrow!