D Up?
Has the Knicks defense progressed this season? Depends on how you look at it.
At the moment, the Knicks have the 23rd ranked defense in basketball. That could be encouraging or discouraging, depending on your point of view.
This time last year, New York was 26th, which is exactly where they finished the season. It’s an improvement, but given the additions of Marcus Morris, Taj Gibson and Wayne Ellington - serviceable if unspectacular presences who know how to execute a scheme - and the theoretical progression of guys like Frank and Mitch, a four-spot jump probably isn’t what anyone was hoping for.
Here’s another interesting tidbit: the Knicks have the 16th-ranked first quarter defense in basketball, during which they’re only giving up only 105.3 points per 100 possessions. It’s the reason I’ve sent out a few #OldTakesExposed gems, like this one from Monday night:
(At least it was prescient)
Anywho, in fourth quarters, that 105.3 number pops up to 115.1, which ranks 25th. When it’s winning time, they’re doing anything but. If you’re a glass-half-full type (are there any of us left? I broke my glass and now require a sippy cup), this is the type of thing that improves with time and experience. If they can do it early, theoretically, they can do it late.
(Late game execution is something Taj Gibson might be the only guy in the locker room to know anything about. As he put it on Sunday night, the last five minutes of a game comes down to the little things, and those things take time to become habitual. He gets it.)
But stability only comes with repeatability, and if the best teams cut through you like a hot knife to butter, all the encouraging stats in the world won’t make a bit of difference.
That’s exactly what we saw over the last two weeks against the Spurs, Raptors, and most recently the Bucks. They possessed the skill, experience and togetherness to know that an open shot is only a few passes away.
That’s the thing about playing a helping scheme that features the occasional aggressive trap: it can look great against bad or even mediocre offenses through three quarters, and is wonderful for picking up turnovers when passes aren’t crisp. The Knicks finished the weekend 8th in the league in steals per 100 possessions, and more than two thirds of their steals led to transition opportunities, which is 7th in the NBA according to Cleaning the Glass.
But when teams start to focus, things fall apart quickly, as New York’s fourth quarter defensive rating shows. Against the best offenses, it’s not a matter of if, but when (remember, Toronto was down 10 early on Thanksgiving Eve, thanks to nothing more than several open shots not going in. That didn’t last then, and it rarely will.)
Even really athletic teams have trouble running the type of hyperactive scheme New York is employing, as Jason Kidd found out when he was fired from Milwaukee, in part because he refused to divert from his love affair with trapping. The Bucks had the 25th ranked defense in the league the day Kidd got axed, were 14th the rest of the way, finished first last season and are first once again.
They famously made this turnaround giving up more threes than any team in the league while simultaneously giving up fewer shots at the rim than anyone. They were also spectacular at preventing those lucky few able to get deep into the paint, finishing first in opponents’ conversion rate on shots at the rim as well. Even though opponents made a healthy percentage of all those threes (36.8 percent, ranked 24th according to Cleaning the Glass), the sum total was damn effective.
This year, the Bucks are third from the bottom in frequency of opponent threes, with two similarly smart organizations, Miami and Toronto, pulling up the rear. Giving up a ton of threes is now officially in vogue.
The Heat and Raptors, however, are allowing the 2nd and 4th lowest percentage of makes from long range. Teams take those shots out of desperation, not opportunity. Milwaukee, meanwhile, sticks to their guns, once again giving up fewer shots at the rim than any defense, but slipping to second in opponents’ rim conversion rate, behind only…the Toronto Raptors. The Raps also give up the third fewest looks from close range. Miami is a respectable 12th.
Are you sensing a trend here? Good teams that give up a ton of threes do so with a purpose that helps fortify other strengths of their defense. The Knicks, well…not so much. New York is giving up the fourth highest rate of attempted threes after those three behemoths. Unfortunately, they don’t have the surrounding stats to make this an effective plan.
David Fizdale has made a point to note how few baskets the Knicks give up in the paint, and he’s somewhat justified in bragging. New York entered Monday fourth in the league in opponent points in the paint according to teamrankings.com, behind only the aforementioned Bucks and Raptors and the impressive Celtics.
However, unlike the Bucks (1st), Raps (3rd) and Celts (8th), the Knicks are in the bottom third of the NBA in frequency of opponent shots at the rim (21st heading into Monday’s action). They’re also 23rd in percentage of opponent makes from deep and 14th at the rim. If any one of these last three numbers were significantly higher, New York’s defense might have some legs. As it stands though, they wind up on nubby stumps by the end of the night.
Now for the real questions: can it get better, and does it matter?
Taking the latter first, we’ve heard for years that the process behind “savvy” rebuilds (Brooklyn and Atlanta were popular recent examples) were more important than results. For the first time in seemingly forever, the Knicks do have a style. If it gets better as their young players grow and their roster gets more comfortable with what’s being asked of them, the early struggles won’t matter.
That’s a massive “if” though, at which point we have to turn to the first question.
The Bucks’ post-Kidd turnaround nonwithstanding, there is evidence that this can work, if only because we’ve seen it many times this season already. Here’s a simple example from the Philly game over the weekend:
This seems like a simple bad pass by a young player, but there’s a lot the Knicks are doing to make it happen. The play starts with a quick dig by Frank, which forces Tobias Harris to give up the ball, but that’s followed by perfectly timed rotations by Randle and RJ which lead to the steal, and ultimately an easy basket.
Good things can also happen on high traps, even against good players. Here’s a nice moment from the loss to the Celtics on Sunday, all due to the precise timing and positioning of Mitchell Robinson:
The whole key here is getting to Kemba when he’s not expecting it, and to do it in a way where he doesn’t see it coming. That’s really hard. When you try this stuff against good passers but follow a predictable script, it loses all effectiveness.
Take a look below at a gaff by our favorite golden boy, Frankie Smokes. First of all, there’s no need for him to dig here. For all of Randle’s defensive flaws, he’s stout in the post, and Gasol looks to pass 11 times out of every 10 possessions. Taj is also there to help in case Big Spain decides to get frisky.
To make matters worse, he’s leaving Fred VanVleet open, who’s less than seven months away from getting a nine-figure deal from Masai Ujiri as his first official move as POBO of the Knicks.
As the final nail in the coffin, Ntilikina gets turned around on his recovery attempt, vanquishing any possibility of a real content. This is what happens when you trap - even good players make mistakes because there are a lot of moving parts, and it takes the utmost of precision to make it work.
But what happens when you put bad defenders into such a scheme? Let’s go back to Toronto:
OG Anunoby is technically the responsibility of Julius Randle, who comes all the way across the lane to get in the way of a driving Mark Gasol. That’s technically the right rotation here, but the whole key to this working is Randle not allowing Gaosl to make the pass to his man in the corner. Raising one’s hands above one’s hips often helps on plays like this. RJ Barrett is also way too far towards the middle, when he should be in between Powell and OG.
Aside from having solid technique, players also need to be running at full throttle for every minute they’re on the court. On the play below, Randle gets beat by a quicker Norm Powell. That’s fine…it happens. Because of the scheme, Mook is there to pick up the slack:
Unfortunately, after getting beat, Julius stands around, doing/guarding nothing/nobody in particular. The domino effect requires him to look for his new responsibility. At the very least, he should have jetted out to the perimeter in anticipation of a forthcoming open shot as a result of his initial malfeasance.
Here’s another example of a similar play type as the Gasol pass to OG from above. To hit credit, Bobby Portis knows exactly what’s coming, pointing (and likely shouting) to the corner before making a solid contest on the drive. For this to work, DSJ needs to be aware as this play is developing that he’s responsible for two men at once, and position himself accordingly. He, umm…does not:
Instead, Smith Jr. meanders into the middle of the court for no discernible reason, going even further away from Marvin Williams in the corner. Had he been in position to make that rotation and made it, it would have then been up to RJ Barrett to recover to an open Devonte Graham, who DSJ would have left open.
That’s how this has to work: everyone is on a string. Instead, instincts take over, and Smith, knowing that Graham has been eviscerating them all night long, didn’t want to leave him. That’s why when David Fizdale keeps talking about “trust,'“ it’s not completely coach speak. He’s right.
How much longer he’ll get a chance to ingrain these habits into his guys is anyone’s guess, as is whether this scheme will ever be sustainable. Better players will help, but by the same token, better players would allow you to play something more straight up scheme. Often times, a system like this is only as strong as its weakest link, and the Knicks have their fair share of those.
At the very least, by the end of this year, the Knicks need to pick a direction. The current path has shown some progress, so they might as well stick with it for a while to see how much better it can get. In a lost season, even figuring out which path is the correct one represents a step forward.
It’s better than nothing.