Dame Time?

Is it the right time for New York to swing for the fences? We turn to recent NBA history for our answer.

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🗣 News & Notes ✍️

🏀 Action Network writer Matt Moore spoke to several NBA sources that all agreed the Knicks were the most likely team to make a play for a higher spot in the draft, with a few even suggesting that there’s a player “in the low teens that they have targeted, but no one’s sure who it is.” I’ll have more on this later in the week.

🏀 Following a Friday TrueHoop report from Henry Abbott stating that Damian Lillard would request a trade in the coming days, the floodgates opened on Twitter, with everyone and their mother (and their long lost cousin) speculating that Dame will have the Knicks on his “list” if and when he requests to be traded. At least one prominent Blazer laughed off the reports.

Lillard himself spoke later in the day, and while he did call the reports “not true,” he stopped short of saying anything that would lead you to believe he is on firm ground with the Blazers, only stating that he hasn’t made “any firm decisions” on his future and that “there’s a conversation to be had” with GM Neil Olshey & new coach Chauncey Billups before he leaves for the Olympics.

For my two cents, I wonder how easy it will be for Lillard to reenter Portland’s locker room as its undisputed leader after flatly saying the Blazers did not have a championship roster. If I was a betting man, I’d wager on a trade happening at some point, maybe not this summer, but before the 2022 trade deadline.

As for whether the Knicks should get into the fray…

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⌚️ Dame Time? ⌚️

A little over a decade ago, the Knicks went all in.

Well, maybe not all in, at least not by today’s standards. The trade for Melo didn’t include every good young player on New York’s roster (recall this was before Landry Fields signed in Toronto and entered witness protection) and didn’t include every possible draft asset they could give (hell, one first and one swap is light by today’s standards), but still…it was a lot.

The final return on the trade - three winning seasons out of seven, one playoff series victory, one MVP contending season, and just over 10,000 points in blue and orange - leaves it open for debate as to whether it was the right move at the right time. What can’t be debated is that the Knicks left themselves in a position where they couldn’t have any screw up’s following the deal. They did, and not just one or two either.

As a result, many fans in the NYC are more than a little frightened of history repeating itself. But will it, here and now, with the part of Melo being played by the man who has spent the last two seasons as his teammate in Portland?

Only time will tell for sure, but we can certainly get a sense of what’s likely to come if Leon Rose goes all in like he urged the Knicks to do with his then client 10 years ago.

To do that, I revisited the 10 biggest NBA trades since the Melo deal, examining every component of each one, and ultimately deciding whether or not those teams would repeat history if they had the chance.

Take a walk with me down memory lane, if you will…

2011: Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers

The Player: Paul was coming off a relatively down year in New Orleans in which the Hornets finished 46-36 and got eliminated in the first round. Paul averaged a career low 15.9 points, but was just three years removed from finishing 2nd in the MVP race and was only entering his age-26 season.

The Contract: Two years, $34 million remaining

The Cost: Eric Gordon (former 7th pick, coming off averaging 22 a night as a 22-year-old), Al-Farouq Aminu, Chris Kaman and a 2012 1st round draft pick that would become Austin Rivers.

Also Received: A 2015 2nd rounder

Previous Season: The Clippers went 32-50, their fifth consecutive season out of the playoffs and 13th in the last 14 years.

Other moves: Signed 35-year-old Chauncey Billups and 31-year-old Caron Butler in free agency

What else he was coming to: The reigning Rookie of the Year Blake Griffin, promising young center DeAndre Jordan, little used rookie Eric Bledsoe, and solid vets Moe Williams and Randy Foye

The Result: 40-26, 5th in the West, swept in round two

Lob City was born, and while the Clippers didn’t make much noise in the playoffs, Chris Paul’s arrival effectively put the organization on the map for the first time since their move to LA. Billups only played 20 games, but the future appeared bright with Griffin, Jordan and Bledsoe.

The Aftermath: Head Coach Vinny Del Negro would be replaced by Doc Rivers after a first round exit the following season, and while the Clippers would make the conference semis in the next two seasons, Lob City would ultimately be remembered a as a disappointment due to their postseason shortcomings.

Would they make the trade again? Despite never appearing in a conference finals, Paul’s arrival single-handedly changed the perception of the NBA’s biggest laughingstock. Eric Gordon turned into a nice player but never an All-Star. They’d do this again, even with the shortcomings.

2012: Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers

The Player: Howard was coming off his fifth consecutive All-NBA 1st Team appearance and was a year removed from winning his third consecutive Defensive Player of the Year award and finishing second in the MVP race. He was entering his age-27 season.

The Contract: One year, $19.5 remaining

The Cost: Andrew Bynum (coming off an All-NBA 2nd Team selection), Christian Eyenga, Josh McRoberts and a protected future 1st round draft pick 

Also Received: Earl Clark and Chris Duhon

Previous Season: LA went 41-25, 3rd in West, lost in 2nd round to OKC

Other moves: Acquired 38-year-old Steve Nash via trade and 36-year-old Antawn Jamison via free agency

What else he was coming to: A 34-year-old Kobe Bryant, coming off an All-NBA 1st Team selection; 32-year-old Pau Gasol; 33-year-old Metta World Peace

The Result: 45-37, swept in round one

Los Angeles’ season was a disaster almost from the start. They began the year 1-4 and replaced head coach with Mike Brown with Bernie Bickerstaff as they tried to lure Phil Jackson out of retirement. Failing, they got Mike D’Antoni instead, who proceeded to try and turn Pau Gasol into a stretch four. Nash only played 50 games, Howard and Bryant clashed, and they had to win eight of their last nine games just to make the 8th seed.

The Aftermath: The beginning of the end for the Kobe Lakers, and the beginning of the franchise’s longest down period in their history. Howard left for Houston in free agency a year after he arrived.

Would they make the trade again? They missed the playoffs for six consecutive seasons after this, but the players acquired in those drafts became the bedrock of the trade for the next star center they’d acquire who would help lead them to a title, so who knows. Even so, this was an utter disaster, so probably not.

2017: Kyrie Irving to Boston Celtics

The Player: A year removed from hitting one of the biggest shots in NBA history, Irving averaged a career high 25 a game as a 24-year-old for an NBA Finalist. The Cavs lost 4-1 to the Warriors but Irving averaged 29 a game in the series.

The Contract: Two years, $39 million remaining

The Cost: Isaiah Thomas (coming off an All-NBA 2nd Team selection), Jae Crowder, Ante Žižić, a 2018 1st round draft pick that became Collin Sexton, and a 2020 2nd round draft pick (became Skylar Mays) that was added as compensation after the severity of Isaiah Thomas' hip injury was later revealed.

Previous Season: 53-29, lost 4-1 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Other moves: Traded Avery Bradley for Marcus Morris; drafted Jayson Tatum 3rd overall.

What else he was coming to: 2nd year forward Jaylen Brown, 3rd year guard Terry Rozier, 4th year guard Marcus Smart, and 31-year-old Al Horford

The Result: 55-27, 2nd in East, lost 4-3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Irving had arguably his best statistical campaign but was injured for the final month of the regular season and all of the playoffs. Jayson Tatum emerged as a possible future star, and Jaylen Brown as a high level supporting piece. The future looked bright.

The Aftermath: Irving did a 180 and ditched Boston after initially saying he wanted to return. The Celtics made the East Finals in the bubble the year after Irving departed, but are now seen as a team with a thin roster outside its top two pieces and no clear path to contention.

Would they make the trade again? How could they? Even with the gift that was Cleveland wasting a prime opportunity to extract more value from Danny Ainge after the Isaiah Thomas injury was fully revealed, it’s hard to argue that they wouldn’t have just been better off keeping the Nets pick that became Collin Sexton. Irving’s exit and the seeds of discord he left behind were that messy.

2017: Paul George to Oklahoma City Thunder

The Player: George was entering his age-27 season as a four-time All Star and three-time All-NBA honoree (all 3rd team selections), but after leading the Pacers to consecutive conference finals, Indy had won just three first round games in three seasons and were swept by the Cavs in 2017.

The Contract: One year, $19.5 million remaining; was widely expected to jet to LA the first chance he got.

The Cost: Former No. 2 overall pick Victor Oladipo, already signed to a four-year, $84 million extension and coming off his most efficient season as a supporting piece in OKC, plus former 11th overall pick Domantas Sabonis after a disappointing rookie season.

Previous Season: 47-35, 6th in the West, lost in five game to the Rockets in round one.

Other moves: Traded for 33-year-old Carmelo Anthony

What else he was coming to: Russell Westbrook, coming off an MVP season

The Result: 48-34, 4th in the West, lost in six game to the Jazz in the first round.

Paul George was everything the Thunder signed up for in the regular season, being named to the All-NBA 3rd Team. OKC took a while to figure out the Russ/PG13/Melo dynamic, but they did eventually, to a certain extent. In the playoffs, both George and Westbrook dipped from an efficiency standpoint and Donovan Mitchell switched Anthony off the court and temporarily out of the league.

The Aftermath: After another sub-50-win season and unceremonious first round exit, George asked out to join Kawhi in LA, and the Thunder were all too happy to accomodate, getting rising star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a treasure trove of picks in the deal.

Would they make the trade again? I don’t see why they wouldn’t.

The Thunder have arguably a top-15 NBA asset in SGA, even as he’s about to get a max rookie extension. The George gamble didn’t work out but the alternative (sticking with Oladipo and Sabonis) probably leaves them in NBA no man’s land and wouldn’t have forced their hand in dealing Westbrook, which turned out almost as good for them as the PG13 trade.

2017: Jimmy Butler to Minnesota Timberwolves

The Player: Two years removed from winning the NBA’s Most Improved Player award, the 28-year-old Butler had just been named to his first All-NBA Team (3rd) and third straight All-Star team after averaging 24, 6 & 5 for a Bulls team eliminated in the first round.

The Contract: Two years, $40 million remaining

The Cost: Zach LaVine (coming off averaging 19 points as a 21-year-old), 7th overall pick Lauri Markkanen and the previous year’s 5th overall pick Kris Dunn.

Also Received: Justin Patton

Previous Season: 31-51, 13th consecutive seasons out of the playoffs

Other moves: Signed 32-year-old Taj Gibson, 29-year-old Jeff Teague and the ageless Jamal Crawford

What else he was coming to: 2015 No. 1 overall pick Karl Anthony-Towns, who had been named the player NBA GM’s would most want to start a team around for the second consecutive season, and 2014 No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins, coming off a career high 23.6 points in his third season.

The Result: 47-35, lost in the first round.

The Wolves were a top-four seed for much of the year until an injury to Butler cost him most of the last two months, dropping them to 8th. Even so, Butler played well and the Wolves offense was a top unit, although their defense was inconsistent at best.

The Aftermath: Disaster.

Jimmy Butler raised a stink about wanting to be traded almost immediately after this season ended, and after single-handedly torpedoing any chance of the Wolves having a functional team the following season, finally got his wish after 13 games. The Wolves settled for two high level role players in return, and haven’t been back to the playoffs since, although 2020 1st overall pick Anthony Edwards looks promising.

Would they make the trade again? Given how short a time Butler was there, the acrimony involved in his exit, and the borderline All-NBA player Zach LaVine has become, almost certainly not. That said, Butler’s exit precipitated their bottoming out, which got them Edwards, so there’s an argument to be made.

2018: Jimmy Butler to Philadelphia 76ers

The Player: See above.

The Contract: one year, $20.4 million remaining

The Cost: Robert Covington, Dario Šarić, Jerryd Bayless and a 2022 2nd round draft pick.

Also Received: Justin Patton (again)

Previous Season: The Sixers finally graduated from the Process and made the playoffs, losing in the second round to Boston after finishing 52-30

Other moves: Traded for Tobias Harris midseason.

What else he was coming to: 24-year-old Joel Embiid and 22-year-old Ben Simmons.

The Result: 51-31, lost in the second round to the eventual champion Raptors in seven games.

Were the Sixers a bounce or two away from an NBA championship? It’s impossible to know. What has become clear is that Butler was a perfect compliment to Embiid and Simmons: a wing who could initiate the offense and get a decent shot when the game slowed down. Alas, his tenure there lasted just 55 games.

The Aftermath: For reasons that still aren’t fully clear, Butler bounced for Miami in the summer, leaving Philly with gobs of cap space to spend on Al Horford, which went…poorly. Now, a team that was seemingly better set up for the future than any in the NBA is left wondering how they can make the most of what remains of Joel Embiid’s prime.

Would they make the trade again? This is tough. The bloom has since come off the rose for both Covington and Šarić, but they were seen as solid trade chips at the time, to say nothing of the picks later traded for Harris. Knowing what they know now, they would have gone in a different direction, but it’s hard to argue with the logic and the immediate results. Butler was exactly what they needed, and it’s hard to say the trade was a failure when they were so close to defeating the eventual NBA champs. Speaking of which…

2018: Kawhi Leonard to Toronto Raptors

The Player: Former Finals MVP who had consecutive top-three MVP finishes before effectively losing a season to a mysterious injury, the handling of which clouded his exit from San Antonio.

The Contract: One year, $23 million

The Cost: DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Pöltl and a 2019 1st round draft pick that became Keldon Johnson

Also Received: Danny Green

Previous Season: 59-23, 1st in the East, swept in the second round by Cleveland.

Other moves: Replaced Dwayne Casey with Nick Nurse as coach, traded Jonas Valančiūnas and filler for Marc Gasol midseason.

What else he was coming to: Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka, Norm Powell and OG Anunoby. Not bad.

The Result: 58-42, 2nd in the East, won NBA Championship. Not much more to say.

The Aftermath: Kawhi left for LA while Toronto overachieved the following season, getting bounced in the second round. They stealth tanked this season after being forced to play in Tampa, and now have the fourth pick in a great draft.

Would they make the trade again? A million times over. The organization was done with DeRozan and either needed to blow the whole thing up or give it one more shot with a significant upgrade. The chose…wisely.

2019: Paul George to Los Angeles Clippers

The Player: George was coming off a 3rd place MVP finish in OKC.

The Contract: Two fully guaranteed years and $68.5 million, with a player option for the 3rd season.

The Cost: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, four firsts and two swaps.

Previous Season: 48-34, lost in the first round to Golden State

Other moves: Traded for Marcus Morris midseason.

What else he was coming to: Kawhi Leonard and a bevy of role players.

The Result: 49-23, lost in the second round to Denver in seven games. A meltdown of epic proportions.

The Aftermath: Still being written, but it’s not looking great. Kawhi is going to be out for most if not all of next season, if he even stays in LA, although George exacted some manner of revenge this postseason after what happened in the bubble.

Would they make the trade again? As of now, they’d have to, if only because they’ll remain a threat to win it all as long as Leonard and George are around. Leonard’s health and impending free agency make this much more tenuous though, especially with four years and more than $175 million still owed to PG13 after he signed an extension.

2019: Anthony Davis to Los Angeles Lakers

The Player: After two consecutive All-NBA First Team finishes, AD essentially punted on the 2018-19 campaign in New Orleans as he tried to force his way out before his age-26 season. Still, he averaged 26 & 12 in 56 games after consecutive seasons of 28 & 11.

The Contract: One year, $27 million

The Cost: Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, De'Andre Hunter, and full control of the LA’s draft rights until Armageddon.

Previous Season: 37-45, missed playoffs. LeBron’s first season in LA was derailed by the King getting sidelined, and possibly by AD’s own trade request going public.

Other moves: Signed Avery Bradley and Dwight Howard, picked up Markieff Morris,

What else he was coming to: The greatest player alive.

The Result: 52-19, 1st in the West, won the NBA championship

The Aftermath: This season was marred by injuries to both stars, both during the regular season and the postseason. They were up 2-1 on the eventual Western Conference champs in the first round with a home game in their pocket. Do they win if they stay healthy?

Would they make the trade again? A championship means never having to say you’re sorry or second guess your decisions, so yes.

2020: James Harden to Brooklyn Nets

The Player: 31-year-old Harden entered this season as the three-time reigning scoring champ and top-three MVP finisher for four straight years.

The Contract: Two years, $84.5 million remaining, plus a player option for $46.8 million

The Cost: Caris Levert, Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince, Rodions Kurucs and Brooklyn’s entire draft future.

Previous Season: 36-37, 7th in the East, swept in first round by Toronto

What else he was coming to: KD & Kyrie (mostly) returning to health

The Result: 48-24, 2nd the the East, lost in seven games to eventual East champs in the second round. While the Nets were able to survive a combined 91 missed games from their big three, they couldn’t survive injuries to Irving and Harden in the postseason.

The Aftermath: Remains to be seen.

Would they make the trade again? Too soon to say, but if they don’t win it all next season, it’ll be very hard to say yes.

Final Tally

Definitely would make the trade again: 2018 Raptors, 2019 Lakers

Almost certainly would make the trade again: 2011 Clippers, 2017 Thunder

Too soon to tell: 2019 Clippers, 2020 Nets

Almost certainly wouldn’t make the trade again: 2012 Lakers, 2017 Celtics, 2017 Wolves, 2018 Sixers

Analysis

The most obvious takeaway here is that the only teams who would unquestionably do it the same way again both won an NBA championship as a direct result of the trade. Duh.

Perhaps just as important is the fact that none of the other eight teams even reached the Finals, and six of the eight didn’t reach the conference Finals.

What do the ‘18 Raptors &’19 Lakers have in common? The obvious answer is “they were built to win it all immediately.” This is true, albeit for different reasons. After the additions of Green and Gasol, the Raptors had perhaps the best two-through-nine supporting cast in the NBA, and Kawhi is as good as anyone in May and June. The Lakers, meanwhile, had the best player in the sport, Davis was his perfect compliment, and the supporting cast was just good enough to get the job done. You could also point to the fact that both teams benefited from some luck, what with Golden State’s injuries in 2018 and a meh Miami team emerging from the East in the bizarro bubble of 2019.

But neither of those commonalities tops this one: Neither team had a realistic superior alternative option. The Raptors were done with the DeRozan era. They were always going to move on; the only question was how. When the cost for Leonard was as dirt cheap as it was, the answer was easy. For the Lakers, they had a 35-year-old LeBron James and little time to waste. There was no tomorrow; tomorrow might as well not have existed.

The other two teams that would almost certainly have made the trade again, the ‘11 Clips and ‘17 Thunder, were in similar boats. LA was maybe the most derided organization in all of sports, and bringing aboard Paul not only gave them instant credibility on the court, but off it as well. In Griffin and Jordan, they also had a ready-made infrastructure of two players on rookie deals who would go on to make a combined eight All-NBA teams. Most importantly, neither player needed to go out in the trade.

For the ‘17 Thunder, the George trade was similar to Toronto’s acquisition of Kawhi. They were otherwise ready to move on from that era in the franchise’s history, and George (plus Melo) gave them one final, low risk swing at the fences. It didn’t work out, but no harm, no foul.

For New York, they would have a few additional perks that several of the above teams didn’t have, most notably that the player they’d be acquiring would be under contract for at least three more seasons. He’s also arguably the game’s second best player at its most valuable position.

But he’s also a small guard who just turned 31 year old. The Knicks don’t seem to have an obvious path towards pairing him with both Randle and another top-20 player. Given that Randle is (generously) barely in the top 20 himself, it’s hard to see how the math works out on building a title-contending core (peep the “What else he was coming to” sections above and compare that to what the Knicks would reasonably be left with or able to sign).

Maybe the price is lower than we expect, and maybe there’s a way to add Dame and someone else of that caliber, but absent that, getting Lillard probably won’t result in the franchise’s first title in nearly half a century.

Most importantly, unlike both the ‘18 Raps and ‘19 Lakers (and arguably the ‘11 Clips and ‘17 Thunder), there’s little need to do this move at this time. “Just get the top seven player and figure out the rest later” is easy enough to say, and certainly tempting enough to believe, but “later” has a funny way of coming around sooner rather than, well…later.

So for as much as Friday’s ramping up of the Lillard rumor mill gave us all chills, it’s probably best to remain calm, remain patient, and wait until the organization can make their big swing on their terms. If they do, maybe they can add their name to the couple of teams that came away from these trades without the one thing you don’t want to be left with: Regret.

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