Dangerous Ground
Why trading on thin ice is unsafe, a modest request for Julius Randle, and a word on aggregation
In today’s newsletter:
Before we get to today’s feature by the always phenomenal Tom Piccolo, I’m opening with a quick comment about a NY Post article that was lost to the weekend but which I thought deserved a bit more attention.
The piece, by OG beat sage Marc Berman, noted that the Knicks were weary of taking on salary at the deadline that extended past this year because, as he put it, “[w]hile the 2020 free agents do not make up a boon class, the club wants to maintain cap flexibility for a potential blockbuster trade.”
I nearly spit out my morning coffee.
There are a few reasons for this, but let’s start here: from all indications, the men who make the basketball decisions for the New York Knicks are on thin ice. This seems relevant.
(Whether their imperiled status is deserved is now almost beside the point, but is a topic I find increasingly compelling nonetheless. Fizdale’s shortcomings were legit, but the front office is also responsible for hiring him.
Regardless, they put together a roster that has failed in large part because the two best free agents – one signed quite intentionally, the other via happy accident – detract from rather than amplify the abilities of the two best and most important young players: RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson. A play-making, shooting primary initiator would potentially be the skeleton key that unlocks this quagmire, but alas…)
What we have is two men tasked with showing improvement in order to save their jobs. That they may be allowed to make a decision that is at once in their own self-interest and in opposition to the long term health of the organization is more than a little unsettling.
For starters, every opposing front office in the league knows that there exists a ticking clock above the heads of Steve Mills and Scott Perry. You don’t need to be a shark to smell the blood in the water from miles away; it is a sea of red quite visible from the distant shore.
Of course you can suggest that a deal which doesn’t involve trading a core piece or a first round pick – something which we’ve been lead to believe James Dolan now realizes is a very bad thing – is a valid course of action. Without getting into the whole tanking debate (never again, as long as we all shall live), there is, at least on its face, an argument to be made.
But to make this argument is to wholly miss the point. Any NBA trade, blockbuster or otherwise, should be made with the purest intentions possible. I don’t know many human beings who, when placed in a situation where their own self-preservation is at stake, could be trusted to differentiate between the thing they know is right and the thing they know is right for them.
I have no doubt that every move made by Steve Mills and Scott Perry has been executed with ample internal justification, such that each genuinely believed it was the very best thing to do for the organization in both the short and the long term.
But those moves have yielded results that are murky at best and damning at worst. With that as the baseline, and with the pressure to win turned up to 9.5, are we supposed to have more confidence that a measured approach will be taken with the next move, with the proper amount of forethought, even if the only person being helped is the one they’re keeping the seat warm for? And what if trading a first isn’t off the table? Or more than a first? What about a first and a young player, or two firsts, all under the guise that this move could be the move that finally turns things around?
All of the sudden, the coffers (which should maybe or maybe not be deployed to Toronto to bring back Masai Ujiri) might be emptied, and down the slippery slope into the abyss we go.
So yeah, you can see why this random snippet in an early Sunday morning article caught my eye. I don’t know what the solution is - employed men, after all, will continue to do their jobs - but at the very least, the situation bears watching.
Speaking of big ticket acquisitions…
One Thing I Need to See: Julius Randle at Center
by Tom Piccolo (@Tom_Piccolo)
Prior to David Fizdale’s dismissal, my biggest criticism of him as a coach was his inability (or refusal) to consistently put his players in positions for success. I’m not even referring to something as complex as installing an offensive “system;” I’m talking about simply evaluating his players’ strengths and weaknesses and rolling out lineups with complementary skill sets. That, to me, seemed like the bare minimum a coach could do, and yet it was a standard that felt out of reach night after night.
Mike Miller now walks into a situation where all he has to do is not play Kevin Knox at shooting guard and Knicks fans will rejoice (note: Knox played ~4 minutes at SG on Sunday night in Denver, during which the Knicks were +5….but the point stands). Beyond fixing the most egregious positional debacles, the Knicks still have several rotational adjustments they can make to potentially get more out of their players. One of those is playing Julius Randle at the five on offense.
During Randle’s now near-mythical 2018-19 season, the one in which he averaged 21+ PPG on 60% True Shooting, the one that convinced Knicks fans he was a worthwhile gamble as a possible foundational piece, Randle played 70% of his minutes at the center position, per Cleaning The Glass. This season, only 8% of his minutes have come playing at the five. The other 92% have all been logged as the power forward.
The result has been ugly: Randle’s finishing at the rim ranks in the 29th percentile among bigs as he barrels his way into packed defenses with all the subtlety of SantaCon. And, like one of those drunk elves trying to get into a bar on that god-forsaken day, he is foul-prone, often loses control and has been rejected a ton — 26 times so far this season to be exact, fifth-most among bigs per NBA.com. But, it feels like he leads the league in plays like this:
To view video and continue reading, click here…
Player Spotlight
With the Knicks hosting the Hawks tonight, we’re doing something a little nontraditional with our PredictionStrike player spotlight: I’m giving advice on someone not to buy…yet.
Trae Young has been a man on an island for most of this season. His trusty volleyball friend Wilson is still serving a 25-game suspension thanks to ingesting a banned substance, and both of his rookie running mates De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish have struggled.
You might think this will open up an opportunity for him to have a huge game against the Knicks tonight, who have notably struggled against shifty, sweet-shooting guards. You might be right.
However, New York has had something in the form of Young Kryptonite in Frank Ntilikina, and Mike Miller seems smart enough to deploy his entire stash of the glowing green stuff when it matters most. Young averaged only 15 points per game last season vs New York.
Due to New York’s desultory record and still low-ranked defense, Young is projected to get 42.63 fantasy points tonight, which is quite a jump from his 34.0 average. He’s currently trading at $2.06 a share. I say that after Frank puts on the clamps tonight, that price dips below two bucks, making it the perfect time to buy low.
Don’t forget, if you haven’t signed up yet, click here and use code KFS when doing so for $10 in free investment funds.
Knicks Kicks
by Tiffany Salmon (@tiffstarr815)
The rejuvenated Knicks are on the way back home after a hard fought 4-game west coast trip. On Friday, The Knicks and Marcus Morris went into Sac Town and pulled out a comeback win rallying from 16 points down to beat the Kings. On Sunday evening, The Knicks also played a tough game in the Mile High city, even coming back from 21 points down to take the lead vs. The Denver Nuggets.
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Before we get to today’s articles, a word on aggregation…
A few people tagged me in the following tweet:
This account has almost a quarter of a million followers, but they aren’t verified for a reason. Here is the actual snippet from Steve Popper’s article in Newsday, which dropped yesterday afternoon:
“an NBA source said it is believed that the Knicks would be open to moving Randle, though he has the contract locked in for next season.”
Steve Popper is an excellent reporter, and because he is, he couched this so delicately, in very precise language, in a way that isn’t at all conveyed by the above aggregation site.
Be careful out there, friends. Now, for other news…
Benny Buckets of Posting & Toasting did a thorough examination of whether the Knicks should trade Marcus Morris and it’s definitely worth your time.
Dennis Smith Jr. is seemingly out of the Knicks rotation. I would not be surprised if he’s played his last game for the franchise.
On This Date: Bob McAdoo scores then-Knick record 41 points off the bench
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
Bob McAdoo returned from injury to score a then-Knicks record 41 points off the bench in 42 minutes. McAdoo’s performance led the Knicks to a 111-105 victory against the Atlanta Hawks. McAdoo missed the previous 12 games with an injured toe. The scoring record off the bench lasted until the 2009-10 season when Al Harrington scored 42 points off the bench in a Halloween matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers.
That’s it for today! See you tomorrow with a Hawks Postgame.