Dumping Grounds
Jeremy Cohen finishes off the week with some thoughts on salary dumps.
To finish off the week, Jeremy Cohen finishes up his “Coming Up Roses” series with some thoughts on a particular category of moves the Knicks new president might be wise to take advantage of.
Coming Up Roses: Part 4
by Jeremy Cohen
Guess who’s back, back again?
As I wrote and discussed with Jon this past week, the Knicks would be trading four of their five or six best assets in any scenario for Donovan Mitchell, who I used as an example of what it would cost to trade for a star that is still on his rookie scale deal.
How would they ever recover from such a deal? Rhetorical question: They don’t need to recover. Even if you’re dealing one of RJ Barrett/Mitchell Robinson and three first round picks to acquire your star, because you previously acquired three first round picks over an almost 13-month span to boost up your arsenal, you are at worst at equilibrium, future-asset wise.
The Knicks have 10 first round picks over the next seven years and expect to have 13 top-40 picks in that span as well. They have RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson, and hopefully, head coach Tom Thibodeau can work with Frank Ntilikina and Kevin Knox to the point where they themselves possess positive value (or at the very least non-negative value). I feel extremely comfortable saying that New York is flush with assets.
I’ll start calling you Oliver Twist because please, sir Leon, you want some more. You have consistently seen picks and young players leave MSG, and that irks you. So here’s an idea: The Knicks should use the 2020 season to effectively be the NBA’s toilet. That’s right NBA: salary dump all over the Knicks. All you broke ass billionaire owners now have a chance to get out of financial commitments, because who outside of Steve Mills expected a pandemic to shake up the NBA?
The logic is simple. If you can take on contracts for assets, you have more future assets on hand. This works for any blockbuster trade because you are trading the assets of other teams. You can also trade your own assets and use the assets of other teams to cushion the blow of what you pay.
Let’s set two ground rules here.
I do not expect the Knicks to make a play for a young star until the 2021 deadline at the absolute earliest, and even that feels premature.
I highly doubt the Knicks fill out their entire roster with salary dumps. Maybe they try to sign a Fred VanVleet or a Danilo Gallinari, or maybe they sign lesser players. Regardless, I feel there will be more nuance in terms of roster construction than by taking on salary dumps and only salary dumps.
I have compiled a modest list of expiring salaries that teams may be willing to shed as a result of being too far over the salary cap. The requirements?
Not a cent of guaranteed money is on the books after the 2021 season ends
Teams must be in line to be above the 2020-21 salary cap that is currently in place (Sorry, Frank Kaminsky fans. Also, no crazy Nic Batum mega-trades), and…
Any contracts that can be non-guaranteed next year are assumed as such (For example, Trevor Ariza’s contract is unlikely to be picked up, so he does not make the list of players likely to be traded).
With that as the backdrop, here is the list:
If the salary cap stays the same as this past year, if the Knicks don’t move up in the draft, and if they decline or non-guarantee every contract except for Reggie Bullock’s, they will enter the offseason with around $42 million to spend in free agency.
If the Knicks want to spend the majority of their cap space on a wing, Otto Porter Jr. would fit the bill. OPJ costs a ton and Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf has a tendency to be cheap. OPJ was hampered by injuries last season, playing in only 14 games. He logged double digits in half of them. He can still shoot, and his calling card is still his defense, but he’s only played in 29 of a possible 93 games for the Bulls.
Is there enough interest in OPJ where he’s not treated like a salary dump? It’s possible but I’m pessimistic. The Bulls don’t need to get rid of OPJ, especially as they themselves may want to make the playoffs too, ya know. The Hawks and Hornets have plenty of cap space and could each use a 3&D wing. I wouldn’t rule out that the Bulls get something of value for OPJ instead of outright dumping him. The Knicks would be wise to look elsewhere.
From the outside looking in, Gorgui Dieng and Tom Thibodeau could mix like water and oil. From everything I’ve read, there isn’t so much hatred as there is frustration. POBO Thibs gave Dieng a huge contract and then started Taj Gibson over him, every... single... game. It’s easy to imagine that Gibson returns to the Knicks, which makes it hard to imagine Dieng is happy in New York.
(According to The Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski, Dieng was “openly seething” after one game in particular under Thibs during which he felt he didn’t get enough playing time, and afterwards “had to be calmed down by Derrick Rose.” So maybe not a match made in heaven. - Ed.)
Could the Knicks cut Dieng? Yes, although having an additional $17,287,640 in dead salary is unnecessary. Dieng’s money could be used as salary filler in a potential trade. Dead salary does little for you unless that player is a problem, which Dieng likely isn’t. And admittedly, I’ve wondered if Randle for Dieng and a future second would work for both the Knicks and the Grizzlies, especially depending on Jaren Jackson Jr.’s recovery from MCL surgery. Have to think that Dieng would get playing time in that scenario, Gibson be damned. With zero insight into their situation, I don’t think Memphis is desperate to get rid of Dieng. As a result, I have a hard time seeing them dumping his salary outright.
The Timberwolves could conceivably dip below the salary cap but I really doubt they rescind the rights to Juancho Hernangomez and Malik Beasley. They could do three things with James Johnson: Keep him, trade him for a better player, or dump his salary.
Though it was a small sample size, Johnson was not great in Minnesota this past season. He went from adding an expected zero wins in Miami to subtracting 24 wins from Minnesota. The good news is that Johnson had a great net rating with Karl-Anthony Towns (22.2), although that was only in 38 minutes of action. The less great news is Johnson’s net rating with D’Angelo Russell was -4.4 in 175 minutes. The even less great news is Johnson’s net rating with Beasley, who he shared the floor with more than any other Wolves player, was -15.1 (219 minutes). So yeah, Johnson isn’t a starter.
The Wolves could use defense, especially in the backcourt with Russell and in the frontcourt with Towns. Johnson, a big man, helps with neither. Minnesota could target Tyrese Haliburton in the draft, but that might be a reach and they would still need frontcourt help that fits their core’s timeline. They may have to settle for a stopgap player on the non-tax MLE like Paul Millsap if no trade materializes.
Would Minnesota be interested in dumping Johnson’s salary? Their owner, Glen Taylor, is looking to sell the team. If a deal isn’t made by the offseason, would he order any unnecessary salary be cut from the payroll? I would treat Johnson the same way as we would treat Dieng: Don’t cut him because that salary could potentially be used for something. And if it’s ultimately used for nothing, at least you had the option to use it for something. Interestingly enough, Johnson took a ton of corner threes in Miami, as he ranked in the 77th percentile and above in attempts each year. Taking and making are two different stories though, as he consistently ranked in the bottom half on makes.
Johnson and Minnesota’s own 2022 second round pick for the rights to Ognjen Jaramaz could get the job done. Truthfully though, I would rather take a Marcus Morris-like approach than acquire Johnson’s salary. And that’s the perfect segue into our next part of the discussion.
Now let’s say that the Knicks want to acquire free agent talent, and signing a starting wing and a veteran ball-handler (preferably in a backup role) to short term contracts costs under $30 million. This gives the Knicks at least $13 million to play with for salary dumps.
One combination that would work is acquiring Felicio and Leaf, which would equal $11,855,845. Felicio has been a Bull for what feels like 69 years. The Bulls have not had a successful second round pick since Toni Kukoč in 1990.
No, really, I’m not exaggerating. Go back and check. Reinsdorf doesn’t care about second round picks. It’s why he traded the pick that became Jordan Bell for cash. The Bulls traded Gibson and Doug McDermott, and threw in the second round pick that became Mitchell Robinson, to Oklahoma City for Joffrey Lauvergne and Cameron Payne. They have kept only four of their second round picks since 2009.
Chicago has swapping rights with the Pelicans for the 2021 second round pick. Felicio and that pick for cash considerations seems pretty on-brand for Reinsdorf, especially if the Bulls don’t dump Porter Jr. If I don’t cut Felicio right away, I staple him to the bench. There is no reason to play him, whatsoever. This is not a Dieng or Johnson situation.
As for Leaf, he has never averaged more than nine minutes in a season. Knicks head coach, Tom Thibodeau, talked about wanting to use the G League as a resource. What better way to do that than by seeing if you can make TJ Leaf an NBA player?
The owner of the Pacers, Herbert Simon, has seen his company lose $25 billion this year. That number is only going to increase because there’s a pandemic and we don’t know how to contain COVID as a nation. The Pacers have zero second round picks the Knicks would want and it’s unlikely the Pacers would trade a first round pick to get rid of Leaf. Instead, I would ask Indiana about swapping rights. If the Mavericks finish with a better record than the Pacers, the Knicks would have done something smart. Should the transfer not convey, it carries over to the next year. Then the next year. Then the next year, until it finally conveys or turns into a future second round pick or two.
Should neither of those work, there is the combination of Jabari Parker and Mike Scott. To say Parker has had a disappointing career would be putting it mildly. The 25-year old was picked second overall in 2014. He has torn his left ACL twice and has been on five teams in six seasons. He has surpassed 65 games in a season just once in his career. He’s an incredibly high usage, inefficient player and was a flat out terrible rebounder this past year. He has a player option, and if he doesn’t turn it down, the Kings could use some financial help.
The Kings have enough help at the 4 with Marvin Bagley and Harrison Barnes. Even without Bagley, Parker has logged just 51 minutes since being acquired by Sacramento at the trade deadline, 26 of which were in the last two games. They have to pay Bogdan Bogdanovic and they bid against themselves last year for Buddy Hield.
Sacramento also owns three juicy second round picks (their own and Memphis’ in 2021, as well as their own in 2022) and one of those should be attainable. What’s more, Scott Perry is the former vice president of basketball operations for Sacramento. The Knicks and Kings made a trade for Ignas Brazdeikis, and given the rapport with the Kings’ front office, another trade should be feasible. I would either cut Parker so he can find a role better suited towards him (I’d rather see Kevin Knox get his minutes) or keep him on the bench to use as salary filler in a trade.
Speaking of salary filler (and lots of it), the Sixers could enter the offseason with almost $150 million in financial commitments. Of the players on their roster, Mike Scott is the one person who is guaranteed to hit free agency in 2021. With Ben Simmons seeing more minutes at the 4 and Al Horford existing, Scott may not see much time in Philadelphia next season.
The Knicks don’t need Scott but the Sixers have an asset that the Knicks would like: their own 2021 pick. Yes, the draft pick used to get Willy Hernangomez would be coming home in this case. Similar to Parker, I would either cut Scott so he could sign elsewhere for the minimum or keep him around as trade filler. Scott isn’t awful - he’s a meh shooter who had a down year - but he’s an undersized big who gets annihilated by stronger, younger opponents.
Those trades are no bueno for you? Bring on the legal team of Davis, Wilson, and Marjanović.
Ed Davis has been a horrendous decision for the Jazz. He lost his backup role to Tony Bradley, who is a much cheaper option next year. Davis has also never been one to need the ball in his hands but peep the difference pre-Utah and now this season.
Ed Davis is 6’10” and a 10-year veteran whose eFG% is in the second percentile. He can’t finish at the rim, he has attempted one three in his NBA career (a miss), and that 100% from long mid this year? You probably guessed it: One shot made on one shot attempted.
So yeah, Davis could use a change of scenery. Is that New York? Maybe, maybe not. The Jazz don’t have any valuable future assets. One way to use Davis would be by taking him on as a salary dump alongside Donovan Mitchell on the off-chance a trade occurs this offseason. Perhaps by acquiring Davis, the Knicks give up one fewer asset for Spida. If the Jazz wish to trade Davis this offseason but not Mitchell, a 2024 second round pick would suffice. The Jazz will get the greater pick between themselves and the Cavaliers that year. That’s the only asset that makes sense for the two teams.
D.J. Wilson? More like D.J. Will Somebody Get This Dude out of Milwaukee. Am I right???
The Bucks should have at least around $128 million in salary next year. If something goes awry in the playoffs (perhaps anything short of a Finals appearance?), Milwaukee could look to shake things up and acquire a better win-now player. I’m not saying Chris Paul for Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, Ersan Ilyasova, Wilson, and a protected first round pick is a good deal but it is one that would work financially and could lead to Antetokounmpo sticking around for at least another year thanks to Paul’s player option.
Should that not happen, or if it does happen but Wilson isn’t included in any big deal, he could be an option for the Knicks. He would essentially be TJ Leaf in this scenario. I’ll be honest: I have very little interest in Wilson because the Bucks’ treasure chest of assets is pretty bare. The only pick of perceived value would be the 2026 second round pick. And look, a pick is a pick, but I would rather use that space to sign a player and possibly flip him than take on Wilson for a future player who has likely just graduated middle school.
I don’t need to tell you about Boban. He’s Boban. His appearance in John Wick was Oscar-worthy and coming to New York would help his aspiring acting career. Jokes aside, Marjanović goes off for double-digit scoring once every five games or so. He can get played off the floor pretty easily, and logging less than 10 minutes a game in more than half of his games this season is a strong indication of that.
The Knicks kind of own all of the Mavericks’ best assets for the near future. The Knicks don’t own any of Dallas’ second round picks outright and are unlikely to receive the 2025 second round pick as the 2023 pick will likely convey. All of the Mavericks’ second round picks in 2022 and beyond are likely to be middle or late second round, all of which are bland. They do hold the 31st pick in this year’s draft but the Mavericks will likely want to keep that pick. If the 2022 draft is, in fact, the double draft, give me Boban and their second round pick that year for the rights to Louis Labeyrie and we’re in business.
What about acquiring players with partially-guaranteed contracts like Thad Young or Cory Joseph in 2021? Are the Knicks prepared to sacrifice a small portion of their cap space for players who won’t suit up for them during the 2021-22 season? Could the Knicks take on contracts that are expected to end in 2022? I’m skeptical but it’s something to consider. For example, if the Nuggets dumped Gary Harris and a protected 2021 first round pick on to the Knicks after the draft so that the Stepien rule is relevant here, would Harris be able to build up enough value to be traded a year later? Or are his play and contract viewed as liabilities in the grand scheme of things for New York?
The answers to the above depend on how expedited (or not) this rebuild is and if the Knicks can take on bad assets for sweeteners and potentially turn those bad assets into good assets as well. After all, the Knicks have been bad for years. What’s one more, especially when you have an excuse to be bad (thanks to the regime’s first year) and a loaded draft class awaits you? And if the Knicks’ core is good next year, think about how that reflects upon the coaching staff and the team’s future outlook.
As you can tell, these assets aren’t anything like what the Knicks received for Marcus Morris, let alone for Porzingis. A combination of high second round picks and/or a pick swap is nothing to write home about if we’re being frank. A decent asset is a decent asset though, and with New York’s two second round picks in hand for 2021, the possibility for big trades and trade ups exist. And if not, those picks are still valuable to teams that want first round-caliber talent for the price, contract structure, and lack of a cap hit in the second round.
The sweet spot, in my humble opinion, is probably the Knicks taking on a negative asset that expires in 2021 and signing one or two players who can space the floor to one-year contracts. Give yourself more asset ammo by flipping those players for assets if the playoffs are out of reach, as well as putting Julius Randle in a position where he builds his value back up and can be dealt at the deadline.
If there’s any season to accomplish such goals, it’s this upcoming one.
That’s it for this week! See you Monday with a fresh one. #BlackLivesMatter
What do you think the Knicks’ appetite for young players, rather than future picks would be? Would Okogie, for example, be an attractive Dotson replacement in a deal to unload Johnson?
Also curious about the Magic — I haven’t seen them discussed in these types of articles, but they seem like a case of maxed out success on a bloated payroll. Would someone like Terrence Ross (front-loaded $37.5mm / 3 yrs) or Al-Farouq Aminu (~$20mm / 2 yrs) be able to bring a first? That type of opportunity seems similar to TJ Warren or (more conservatively) Tony Snell last year, who both could’ve been sent out again the deadline.
Filling out a roster around these players also seems interesting, as former teammates like Meyers Leonard (with Johnson or Aminu), notable Giannis buddy, Pat Connaughton (with Aminu), or Goran Dragic (with Johnson) could offer a degree of chemistry / familiarity and “winning culture” on cheaper contracts than some of the more commonly discussed options.