Figuring Out New York's Playoff Rotations

Let's take a stab at the impossible with the postseason two weeks away.

Good morning! The Knicks have two games this weekend, with a 3pm tipoff in Atlanta tomorrow and a 7pm start at MSG on Sunday. Reports indicate that Brunson will be listed as questionable tomorrow and will give it a go in one of these games, while Deuce and Cam Payne are also expected back. For the Hawks, Clint Capela is the only recent injury addition, while the Suns will be without KD.

(Yes, I will be writing on the recent reports of mutual interest between Durant and the Knicks at some point, but let’s keep our eye on the prize for now.)

If you’re in the city, come out to T2 Social for a special Saturday afternoon watch party tomorrow, and then join me at halftime on Sunday by clicking here.

Figuring Out The Playoff Rotations

Did you ever have that annoying friend (or maybe you were that annoying friend) who was good at any sport they tried the second they picked it up?

When I was in high school, my dad got me into golf. For years I worked my ass off, practicing and playing multiple times a week, all to make sure I didn’t completely suck. Eventually I got to the point where I could break 90 on a good day, but it was always a struggle. Golf remains a four-letter word for me to this day.

On the flip side, I had a buddy in high school who might as well have been Neo from The Matrix. He’d never golfed before, but one day he decided to play a round with us, and sure enough, shot a lower score than I did.

I couldn’t even be mad. For some people, things just come easier. I was not one of those people.

Neither, it seems, are our beloved Knicks.

As we count down the days until the playoffs begin, we’re left contemplating the same set of compromises that seemed so apparent when they assembled the roster this summer. Other teams - say, a certain defending champion in New England - are more like my friend, with a roster full of players who can switch one through five and shoot from anywhere on the court.

For that reason, I doubt there are many Celtics content creators writing articles similar to this one, pondering how they can put together 48 minutes’ worth of lineups that check the most boxes while conceding the fewest drawbacks. Joe Mazzulla can approach making his rotation like he’s playing pin the tail on the donkey and it would probably work out just fine.

Hopefully, new ownership and a stringent CBA will result in Boston eventually having to break up the most complete basketball roster known to man, but that’s no current solace to 29 other teams, including the Knicks. With that in mind, I did my best to come up with a workable playoff substitution pattern for the first round and - hopefully - beyond.

Before we get there though, one name I did not consider for any of the below rotations is Precious Achiuwa. This isn’t exactly news, what with Mitchell Robinson back and Thibs comfortable using Mitch and KAT together in double big alignments, but I felt compelled to include this section regardless, merely to highlight how undeniable the data is that suggests Achiuwa should not see a single playoff minute.

According to NBA.com, the Knicks are getting outscored by 1.3 point per 100 possessions with Achiuwa on the floor, which is far worse than the next lowest player who has seen at least 500 minutes. When he’s off the court, they’re outscoring teams by 6.1 points per 100. It doesn’t matter what position he plays either. At the five, the defense is solid but the offense suffers. At the four, the defense is bad while the offense is decent. The latter fact might seem surprising until you remember that almost all of Achiuwa’s minutes at the four have come alongside KAT, and it’s not like both are amplifying each other equally. When Towns has Achiuwa next to him, the Knicks generate 117.9 points per 100 possessions. When he’s alongside any other power forward, that number shoots up to 122.6.

With that unpleasantness out of the way, lets turn to the lineups:

Starters: Brunson, Bridges, Hart, Anunoby & Towns

Cleaning the Glass says… 1798 non-garbage time possessions, +3.7 net rating (51st percentile), 119.4 offensive rating (61st percentile), 115.6 defensive rating (39th percentile)

Even with Brunson missing the last 14 games and the offense sinking to borderline bottom-10 levels in his absence, the starters’ offensive rating is still lower than the team’s overall offensive rating for the season. That’s as damning an indictment on their effectiveness as anything.

There is something about this group that has been off for most of the year, and it’s telling that their net rating is worse than nine of the other 10 lineups that have been on the court for at least 60 possessions and don’t contain anyone who will be out of the presumed playoff rotation:

(Implied in this chart is the fact that the Knicks have basically always been good to really good when they haven’t played the likes of Precious, Jericho Sims, and any of the other detritus that has occupied the outer fringes of the roster.)

So…why am I keeping the starting five as is? A few reasons…