Friday Mailbag (and a Prediction)

You asked, I answered.

Good morning! Are you ready for some playoff basketball? I hope so.

Before we get to today’s newsletter, a few announcements…

Reminder that there will be a watch party at T2 Social tomorrow for the game, so check that out if you’re in the city. If you’re watching from home, I’ll be live on Playback with DJ, which you can also watch along with on our YouTube channel. And then of course, you can catch me on halftime and on the postgame show.

Friday Mailbag (and a Prediction)

We’re so, so close.

The anticipation for this first round is both very different and very similar to the last two years - different in that a Knicks loss would now be viewed as a colossal failure on a multitude of levels within the organization, and the same in that every Knick fan I know could not care less about expectations and would be devastated by a series loss regardless of who was favored.

On that note, let’s get into the questions - 15 in total! - starting with this one from Nick Hill:

How many minutes will Shamet get? Has he played his way into the rotation?

For anyone who missed it, I put forth maybe my hottest take of the season when I podded with Fred Katz earlier this week, predicting not only that Landry Shamet would stick in the playoff rotation, but that there would be multiple games where he’d see more court time than Deuce McBride.

There are a few things driving my thinking, starting with something Shamet brings that no one on the roster does: movement shooting.

When the Knicks were forced to include Donte DiVincenzo in the KAT trade, they lost the only player on the roster who was capable of bringing this particular skill. It’s not a coincidence that without DiVincenzo and his franchise-record 283 threes, New York has plummeted to the bottom of the league in 3-point attempt rate.

Shamet isn’t DiVincenzo as a player, but in this particular area, he’s a damn good replica:

Over the last 10 games of the season, Shamet hit 49.3 percent of his shots from behind the arc on 10.7 attempts per 36 minutes. That volume was tops on the team, right ahead of Deuce at 9.4 attempts per 36. The difference is that McBride has been in a bit of a slump, hitting just 34.4 percent of his long balls since his return from injury.

McBride’s playing time shouldn’t be dictated by a five-game cold spell, but I wonder if there aren’t other factors that could go in Shamet’s favor. At times this season, McBride has been at the forefront of some stagnant offensive possessions. Those have mostly come when he’s been forced to run point, but even so, he doesn’t have Shamet’s trigger.

And then there’s this, which I’m frankly not sure what to make of:

Over the last 10 games of the season, the Knicks have allowed just 98.9 points per 100 possessions in 226 minutes with Landry Shamet on the floor. In 259 minutes without him, they have a defensive rating of 119.1, which is by far the highest off-court number on the roster in that time. We know that Malik Beasley gave Landry the “too small” when these guys played last week, but I don’t think that will deter Thibs from giving him a real opportunity in this series. I bet he averages double digit minutes when all is said and done.

Next up, here’s one from Jonas P:

One area that I think will have an impact on the series is foul trouble for the centers, so my questions are simple: which center tandem is more likely to get into foul trouble over the course of the series, and how many games do you think will be swung and/or won because of a center getting into foul trouble?

Let me start with the easiest answer, which is that if any game is swung in favor of a team because of center foul trouble, it’ll be in favor of the Pistons.