Guarding Cade

Let's zoom in on where this series will be decided.

Good morning! Light news day yesterday, with the only news of note was Tom Thibodeau talking up Landry Shamet in his media availability. Count on Shamet being part of the rotation come Saturday.

Also, we’re having a watch party for Game 1!

Hope to see everyone there.

Guarding Cade

Towards the end of Zach Lowe’s Knicks / Pistons series preview that posted on Monday, Mo Dakhil gave his ultimate rationale for why he was picking New York to come out on top: when he ran down his list off the five best players in the series, four of them played for the Knicks.

In a sport that comes down to talent perhaps more than any other, especially where a seven-game series is concerned, this should be the sort of ringing endorsement that quashes a lot of the fears sprouting up lately in the metropolitan area.

That’s especially true when you consider the stats that the four players in question have put up when New York and Detroit have faced off this season:

At first glance, it looks fine. The scoring is there. The efficiency, on the whole, is there, with Mikal and JB a little higher than normal to make up for KAT and OG. There are some warts - KAT’s turnovers being higher against Detroit than any team besides Cleveland, most notably - but nothing that would make you think the Pistons’ defense has New York’s number.

Indeed, offense hasn’t been an issue for the Knicks in this matchup, at least when they get a shot up. New York a 58.1 effective field goal percentage against Detroit, which is higher than against any other opponent who finished with a top-10 defense this season. They’ve scored at least 110 points in three of the four matchups, which has been something of a magic number for the Knicks. When they get to at least that threshold, they’re 45-10. Unfortunately, two of those 10 losses have come at the hand of this opponent.

How did those losses happen? On January 13, when New York lost 124-119, the Pistons dominated two key categories, generating 18 turnovers to 13 for the Knicks and getting 18 second chance points to New York’s nine. The 18 giveaways tied for the fifth highest mark of the season for the Knicks, which is one more than the 17 turnovers they committed last week in a 115-106 defeat - the only Pistons game in which New York didn’t put up 110 (and, not coincidentally, the only game in which Precious Achiuwa, PJ Tucker and Delon Wright combined for 80 minutes. None will see time in the healthy playoff rotation). In December, New York was had by one of their worst rebounding performances of the season, getting out-boarded 43-31.

You’d expect one of the league’s most careful teams to clean up the turnover issues they’ve had in this matchup, not to mention pay closer attention to the glass. Both areas have generally been a strength, but were clearly a weakness at times against Detroit.

All this is to say that when you’re looking for reasons why the East’s third seed might get sent home sooner rather than later, the arrow points in one direction and one direction only: half-court defense, which is where we’ll focus today.