Handing Out Awards

Today I give my picks for MVP, Rookie of the Year, and the rest of the NBA's honors. Plus, a special column from Ray Marcano.

Good morning! Tonight, we’ll find out who the Knicks are going to play on Saturday, with Sixers vs Heat tipping off at 7 pm. For now, let’s start with some fresh reporting on an impending contract situation…

News & Notes

🏀 We have a start time for Saturday: 6 pm, EST, on ESPN.

🏀 I was planning on saving this for the offseason (and I will still save my deeper dive for that time) but we now have three Knick beat reporters - Steve Popper a few weeks ago, and Ian Begley and Stefan Bondy on Monday - saying they’ve heard that Jalen Brunson would be willing to consider extending off of his current contract, as opposed to waiting until the summer of 2025 to decline his player option and enter unrestricted free agency.

This isn’t about the prospect of Brunson leaving. Baring some cataclysmic organizational upheaval in which the entire infrastructure is upended, I full expect Jalen to retire a Knick, or come damn close to doing so. He is as steeped in his team’s culture as any New York athlete since Derek Jeter.

This is about the money, and a whole lot of it.

For Brunson to sign an extension this summer, he could do so by declining his 2025-26 player option and tacking four years and $156.5 million onto next year’s salary.

To put that into context, Jrue Holiday just extended for four years and $135 million. Holiday is six years older than Brunson and generally regarded as the 5th most important player on his own team (which, granted, is a powerhouse that could not afford to let Holiday go. But still). Put another way, over the next five seasons (so including next season, when he’ll earn just under $25 million), Brunson would be making about $24 million less per season, on average, than Jaylen Brown, while only making twice as much as Grayson Allen, who just extended for four years and $70 million.

Obviously timing and situation matter immensely when it comes to all of this stuff, which is why we see numbers that occasionally baffle the mind. That’s all well and good. It doesn’t change the fact that if he waits until 2025 and opts out to enter unrestricted free agency, Brunson could sign for up to five years and $273 million.

Comparing $273 million to $156.5 million is disingenuous because of the extra year. Jalen would (after the lesser extension ends) be eligible to sign for up to 35 percent of a cap that will almost certainly be over $200 million ($70 mil, at least), so it’s really closer to a difference of $46 million than $116 million.

Is there risk in assuming that a max offer would be waiting for him once he’s north of 30 years old? Yes. How does that compare to the risk of waiting an extra year from right now for a bigger payday? That’s up to him to decide.

Whatever he chooses, the decision will have significant ramifications on New York’s cap outlook. At the lesser number, Leon Rose will have that much more maneuverability when it comes to avoiding the various aprons.

We’ll see if he gets that lucky…and if Jalen Brunson really does value security over potentially making top dollar.

Final NBA Awards

I haven’t revisited the awards races since making my preseason picks back in late October, but I revisited those so I could include them in today’s column. I don’t have an official ballot, but I tried to give each of these the same consideration I would if I did. We start with All-NBA…

All-NBA

First Team: Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Second Team: Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Edwards, LeBron James, Anthony Davis

Third Team: Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Steph Curry, Paul George, Domantas Sabonis

My two toughest decisions: leaving one of Kawhi, Edwards, LeBron, AD and ultimately KD off my second team, and picking between George, Sabonis and Tyrese Haliburton for my final two spots, with Jaylen Brown and Victor Wembanyama right there behind Hali.

Also, I’m aware of the recent debates over whether someone’s 5-man MVP ballot should be identical to their All-NBA 1st team (especially with All-NBA now positionless), or whether there’s something materially different about those two honors. In short, I don’t think there’s a wrong answer. On one hand, I could see a scenario where Player A is more valuable to his team but Player B has the “better” season in a vacuum. I also understand if someone doesn’t want to divorce one’s play from its context.

Regardless, I don’t see a world where Brunson shouldn’t (or doesn’t) make 1st team. He’s been one of the five best players in the NBA this season. Enough said.

All-Defense