Huk Out, Robinson Back?
The Knicks hope to welcome back their longest tenured player this weekend.
Good morning! The Knicks are back in action tonight, and they might have an old friend joining them. Mitchell Robinson is listed as QUESTIONABLE, along with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart. Reports state he will be back at some point this weekend. KAT was a game-time decision before the Sixers game, which should bode well. Unfortunately, New York’s center depth took a hit yesterday. More on that in a bit. For this weekend (8pm tip tonight; 6pm Sunday), I’ll be back on halftime on Sunday. Come say hi.
News & Notes
🏀 The Knicks’ center injuries just keep on coming.
Shams reported yesterday that rookie Ariel Hukporti will miss 4-6 weeks with a torn meniscus in his left knee. It’s the third major injury to a Knick big man this season, following Precious Achiuwa missing the first six weeks of the season and Mitchell Robinson having yet to play his first game.
When you factor in Karl-Anthony Towns’ six missed games (resulting in three close wins over bad teams and three losses by an average of 12 points), the Knicks are probably fortunate to have the record they do through 58 games.
On the bright side, reinforcements appear to be on the horizon. Mitch (and KAT) are questionable tonight, which is the first time he’s been anything other than “out” since early May.
With Mitch nearing his return, even though it’s unlikely he moves into the starting lineup anytime soon, it’s worth digging deeper into some of the Timberwolves’ numbers from last season.
On the whole, the pairing of KAT and Rudy Gobert was a resounding success. In over 2,500 non-garbage time possessions together, the Wolves outscored opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions behind an 82nd percentile offense and an 89th percentile defense that notably included 36-year-old Mike Conley.
With the ball, Minny’s shot profile was damn near identical to this year’s Knicks:
Despite lagging in above-the-break threes, both teams achieved strong efficiency behind a high number of rim attempts and corner threes, while both teams also hit a large portion of the threes they attempts. The biggest difference is that the Wolves were much more accurate at the rim whereas the Knicks are far deadlier from the short midrange, but this makes sense considering the differences in personnel.
The question now becomes how the introduction of Robinson will impact New York’s offense. With Mitch in the dunker’s spot, all of those cuts to the basket become harder to come by, to say nothing of KAT’s drives from the top of the arc. Robinson also doesn’t have Gobert’s skill as a short roller, nor is he a threat with the ball from anywhere outside of the restricted area. Smart teams will always use this to their advantage, and it’s a big reason why the offense opened up when I-Hart took Mitch’s place last season.
On the flip side, introducing Mitch as a screener for Towns could produce advantageous switches. Lobs from KAT to Gobert were also a staple of Minnesota’s offense, and should be introduced here as well. Perhaps the biggest offensive advantage Robinson could provide regardless of whether he plays with Towns or not is offensive rebounds that lead to kick out threes. Assuming Josh Hart won’t be on the court for most of these alignments, every perimeter player should pose a threat.
On defense, the hope has to be that Mitch’s impact is immediate and significant. Again though, while Robinson is a clear improvement on Towns (and, frankly, anyone the Knicks have played at center this season), he’s not a four-time Defensive Player of the Year award winner. Against traditional offenses that run a traditional pick & roll without a stretch big, we’ll see an immediate improvement. Boston, unfortunately, is a different animal.
Either way, it’ll be good to have the big guy back. Hopefully we see him in uniform against the Grizzlies tonight.
Clearing the Mental Hurdle
Happy Friday everyone. I wanted to start off today’s edition with a newsletter comment from earlier in the week that I think is worth everyone’s time. It comes from Brian Tremml, a mental health therapist who provides mental health and sports psychology services to athletes at a D1 university:
As our resident sport psych, wanted to lend some insight into one factor that *might* be going on with our guys. Jon, I agree that at times the moment seems to be too big for them against these better teams, and psychology may be playing a role. Because, as discussed, I do not think it’s lack of effort.
There are multiple responses to stress, two of the most common being “threat” or “challenge.” Multiple factors dictate which response occurs in the presence of stress, but two of the main components are perceived competency and expectations. In other words, how capable do you feel of executing what is being asked relative to how difficult you expect the task to be.
It is no secret the Knicks are learning to play together on the fly, and a lot is being asked of them defensively in ways they may not be accustomed to (e.g., KAT). The Knicks may go in to a game at, say, 80% confidence in their ability to execute the game plan against lesser teams because they know they will have room to ease into the game, make some shots, etc. Against these more dominant teams, the expectation is likely that they need to be perfect defensively, thus their pre-game confidence level may drop in percentage. If that is the case, you are likely to be in “threat” mode rather than “challenge” mode.
When you are in “challenge” zone, your objective is to simply to solve the task in front of you. You are free to play with little worry and take chances. If you are in a “threat” zone, the objective is self preservation. You play timid and more so not to make a mistake rather than to be successful. This reflects how they appeared in the first half against Boston, especially after going down big. In the second half, they were more free to be in “challenge” mode due to being down so big.
Another component is that this team was dubbed a “contender” with no evidence other than what it showed on paper. Subconsciously, those expectations are harder to play with as opposed to scrappy underdog.
I’m confident this team has enough mental strength to work through these growing pains. Hopefully they are viewing each game as a step forward.
I couldn’t help but think of this comment when I watched Mikal Bridges come out on fire to start Wednesday’a game against the Sixers.
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