Into the Unknown

Just as the Knicks were reaching new heights with incredible possibilities, their feel-good season came grinding to a halt.

Just when you think the good times will never stop…

So, full disclosure: this newsletter was fully written yesterday morning, but I was holding off on hitting send. I, like every Knicks fan on the planet, was waiting for the results of Julius Randle’s Saturday night MRI, which would reveal the extent of the damage from what we learned shortly after the game was a dislocated shoulder.

So I waited…and waited…and waited.

As of about 11:30 last night, those results hadn’t come, and thus, we still hadn’t learned whether the injury was season ending, or the possibility existed that Julius could try and rehab without surgery and return sometime in the coming months.

So for the time being at least, we’ll move forward into the unknown. When the news finally breaks, you’ll get an emergency newsletter in your inbox ASAP.

Game 46: Knicks 125, Heat 109

In a New York minute…

The Knicks got out of the gate slowly, more due to some cold (tight?) shooting than anything else, but behind a Josh Hart jolt and several big threes, they were down just three after the first quarter. The bench unit maintained momentum to start the second until New York’s big guns broke a tie and closed the half on a 10-0 run. The third was a quarter of runs, the last of which was a 17-4 Miami spurt almost exclusively on Jimmy Butler’s shoulders, but the Knicks saved the best run for last, quickly turning the fourth quarter into a Garden party with as dominant a stretch as we’ve seen from the new look roster.

The celebration was on, and the vibes were as good as they’ve been in years.

Right up until they weren’t.

One Thing

The look on Spo’s face said it all.

With all due respect to what was a fantastic afternoon of basketball for 43 minutes and 33 seconds, there is only one thing that mattered after the final buzzer sounded.

Let’s momentarily put aside the discussion about the on-court impact this injury will have, for however long it impacts him, and focus instead on Julius Randle the person. His story was already one of overcoming adversity, and apparently there is another chapter yet to be written.

Recall that nearly a decade ago, Randle had as incredulous a start to an NBA career as you’ll ever see. Less than 14 minutes into his first game as a pro, Randle broke his leg. His professional life would be put on hold for an entire year.

After so much excitement coming out of Kentucky, that one moment would have derailed lesser individuals, but not Julius. He made it back onto the court and immediately started to show why the Lakers spent the seventh overall pick on his talents, improving every year he was with them. His reward? Being thrown to the scrap heap after his fourth season to make room for LeBron James.

Forced to settle for a middling offer from the Pelicans because all the big free agency dollars had already dried up, Randle again made lemonade out of lemons and had the best season of his young career. That resulted in him coming to New York as Steve Mills’ consolation prize. The vibes here were in the gutter from day one, and Julius suffered the consequences.

Under the present regime, Randle has finally generated the sort of production that many (including himself, surely) expected coming out of college, making two All-NBA teams and on his way to a third All-Star game. Again though, for so many observers, the focus has remained on what he didn’t do rather than what he did.

New York sports history is littered with under-appreciated athletes, but Julius Randle’s name has to be right up near the top of that list. Now, in the midst of the best stretch the organization has experienced since the 90’s, we will learn exactly how much he means to their success.

What will the Knicks miss most from Julius Randle? As much as anything, they will feel the loss of his consistent production - production that is nearly unmatched throughout the entire league.

Since Tom Thibodeau took over as head coach, Randle is 9th in the NBA in total points, 8th in total rebounds and 22nd in total assists. Julius joins Giannis and Jokic as the only players over that time who have accumulated at least 6000 points, 2500 rebounds and 1200 assists. Only Mikal Bridges has played more regular season minutes over the last three and a half years.

For as much as Randle has gone through ups, downs, fits and starts that have occasionally drawn the ire of Knick fans everywhere, there is an invaluable comfort that comes with penciling in 36 minutes of 25, 10 & 5, pretty much every single night.

Even with those numbers, Julius isn’t the most important Knick - that designation goes to Brunson, especially with Immanuel Quickley gone - but Randle is the one who most personifies their identity. Win or lose, you will feel these Knicks, likely for some time after the final buzzer sounds. Their physicality defines them, and Julius Randle embodies their physicality.

That has become even more true since the trade. Alongside OG Anunoby and a traditional center, Randle is the centerpiece of the most imposing front line in the NBA, with nearly as much collective skill as any team out there. Without him, they lose the biggest component of that size & skill combo platter.

And boy, oh boy…has that combo been paying dividends lately.

Since January 1, the Brunson / Randle / Anunoby trio has outscored opponents by 24.5 points per 100 possessions in 285 minutes. After Saturday’s game, that stood as the second highest figure among 112 three-man combos that had played at least 200 minutes in the new year, trailing only Brunson, OG and Isaiah Hartenstein at plus-27.2. New York’s new big three is doing a lot of things well, but one of their biggest strengths is on the boards, where they’re rebounding an absurd 55.6 percent of all missed shots. Randle’s absence will hurt that figure.

But the most significant number they will have to make up for, by far, is this: 28.7.

That’s Julius Randle’s usage rate, which is 21st in the league amongst qualified players. That means nearly three out of every 10 Knick possessions ends with a Julius shot, free throw attempt or turnover. When you factor in that Randle is responsible for 21.7 percent of all Knick assists, and then consider the possessions where a Randle double team will start a longer chain of dominoes that leads to a basket, it’s staggering to approximate his overall impact.

Replacing it will be hard, but not impossible.

Since the trade, lineups featuring Brunson and Anunoby without Randle have run roughshod over opponents, scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions while giving up just 85.3, according to Cleaning the Glass.

But that robust figure has come in only 133 possessions, or about five total quarters of basketball, and has been exclusively against opposing backups. It is fine to ask Brunson to initiate and/or conclude nearly every possession over a few-minute stint. It is quite another to ask him for that level of production over an entire game, let alone for weeks on end.

Which brings us to the $64,000 question: What now?

For one, the Knicks will need a new starting five. My guess: OG moves down to the four and Hart slides into the starting three, although that would also remove New York’s only remaining bench spark plug, and we saw on Saturday how important he can be. There are other options, like Precious at the starting four or Grimes at the starting three, each of which would slot in Sims as the new backup power forward, although Evan Fournier could also get a look. An eight-man rotation is also a possibility.

As for possible outside help, once we know the extent of the injury, I’ll spend a newsletter later this week going through acquisitions the front office can make and whether or not any of them make any sense, but in the interim, everyone will need to step up - not only individually, but collectively. That means the team with the second lowest assist percentage in the NBA will need to move the ball far more than they’re accustomed to in order to generate good shots.

We know they’re capable:

This ends with a tough Brunson floater, but it’s not the sort of possession that puts overdue strain on New York’s lone remaining star. These will need to become a bigger part of their repertoire, as will OG Anunoby finally getting his alleged wish, which is more opportunities to create with the ball in his hands.

Again, we know the capability is there.

As usual, they will take it one day at a time. That is how this team approaches everything, no matter how daunting. It is how they have survived injuries in the past, and it is how they will survive this, which is certainly their greatest challenge to date.

Play of the Day

Following a patented Kevin Love rebound & hit-ahead pass to a streaking Jimmy Butler for a would-be and-one (Butler thankfully missed the free throw), Miami had completed a 17-4 run to tie the game at 86 just before the end of the third quarter. All the momentum gained after the Knicks outscored Miami 73-50 over the preceding 24 minutes was gone.

They needed a jolt heading into the final frame, and wouldn’t you know who was there to answer the call:

This Julius three started a 16-3 run that gave the Knicks all the separation they’d need before eventually running up the score. It was a big shot in a big moment from a big star who we all take for granted (present company included. I’ve been as hard on him as anyone over the years).

They needed Randle yesterday, and like he does so often - far more often than he gets credit for - he delivered.

💫 Stars of the Game 💫

⭐️ OG Anunoby

⭐️ ⭐️ Josh Hart

Grouping them together because they are responsible for my new favorite stat to track on a near daily basis.

In the 215 minutes Anunoby and Hart have shared the court, New York is giving up 84.8 points per 100 possessions. How good is that number? It’s 24.1 points better than the best defense in the league - nearly twice as large as the difference between Minnesota’s top ranked defense (108.9) and the worst (Charlotte, at 121.3). As of Sunday morning, the next lowest defensive rating for a duo that played at least 200 minutes was 93.3, or 8.5 points higher than the OG/Hart number.

They do it in ways both eye-popping and subtle. Anunoby has had multiple steals or multiple blocks in 10 of his 14 games as a Knick, including his last six. As of Sunday morning, he was tied with Kawhi Leonard for the league lead in steals since January 1 at 25. Simple swing passes above the arc have become tightrope walks for opposing offenses:

As for Hart, he no longer has to worry about guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player. Much has been said about the positive impact this has had on Donte DiVincenzo in the starting five, but with Hart, it’s been even more pronounced. That impact was on full display yesterday, when Hart entered the game with his team down 17-9 and proceeded to play the rest of the half, which ended with a 10-point Knick lead.

When you factor in the switchability that is now built into every defensive possession these two share the floor, it really adds a different dimension to their attack.

Throw in Quentin Grimes and Precious Achiuwa, who has looked like a different player after a few weeks getting comfortable in his new surroundings, and you have the makings of a fearsome foursome that opposing teams don’t know what to do with:

Without Randle, the Knicks are going to have to lean into their defense even more - a daunting task considering they’re already tops in the league with OG.

Doubt them at your own risk.

Speaking of doubters looking silly…

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Jalen Brunson: With 32 points, eight assists and zero turnovers, Brunson joined Kemba Walker and Stephon Marbury as the only players in franchise history to hit all those marks in the same game. With four makes in eight tries from downtown, five rebounds, and a steal and a block to boot, it was as close to a flawless performance as you’re ever going to see.

Brunson is currently fifth in the league in drives per game and seventh in total pull-up threes, with a 40.7 percent hit rate that is second only to James Harden in the top 10. As of Sunday morning, Luka Doncic was the only other player in the top 10 in both categories.

(Does Luka qualify as a star? Asking for a friend.)

Defenders continue to give Brunson room because they are so fearful of the damage he can inflict inside the arc, so he just keeps making them pay from behind it.

To quote the great philosopher Carrie Bradshaw, the conversation about whether the Knicks need a “real” star is so over that we need a new word for over.

Saturday was Brunson’s 17th 30-point game in 44 tries this season. That’s the same total as he had in 68 games last season. As Fred Katz has reported, people within the Knicks thought their starting point guard had another leap in him following his stellar Big Apple debut. They were right, but it’s fair to wonder if even they knew how good this could get.

That majestic rise to prominence is why, even after Julius Randle’s injury, no one is ready to concede the season quite yet.

Tip-Ins…

🏀 Isaiah Hartenstein made his return after two games in street clothes, but he played just 16 minutes, possibly on a minute limit (even though Thibs denied this after the game). He didn’t quite look like himself, but that was to be expected.

🏀 Going into the fourth quarter, the only reason the Heat were in it was a 25-2 advantage in fast break points despite very few turnovers by the Knicks.

In the fourth, New York had a 9-0 advantage in fast break points, and that was the game.

🏀 Percentage-wise, this was the Knicks’ third best game of the season from behind the arc. They hit 17-of-33 for a 51.5 percent conversion rate. Every player who attempted a three made at least 40 percent of their looks, with Jalen (4-for-8) and Julius (3-for-4; 47 percent over his last six games on 5.6 attempts) leading the charge.

The Knicks are now 27-6 when they hit at least 34 percent of their deep balls, and 2-11 when they don’t.

🏀 I mentioned them above but they deserve a second shout out: Precious Achiuwa and Quentin Grimes were fantastic. Much maligned at times over the weeks immediately following the trade, each player has rebounded to become an incredibly positive contributor more recently. After another 10 boards, Precious now has 40 over his last four games while also notching two blocks and a steal. Grimes, meanwhile, has rediscovered his defensive grit. Perhaps not coincidentally, his playing time has increased in each of the last six games.

Up Next…

The Knicks head to Charlotte to face the Hornets on Monday night at 7pm. Charlotte is 10-34 with just three wins in their last 24 games. LaMelo Ball is questionable, while Mark Williams and Gordon Hayward are out. Here’s the link for tonight’s zoom.

Final Thought

This sucks. It just absolutely sucks.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”