It is what it is...or is it?
A look at whether this is all there is to the Knicks season
The Knicks lost two games this weekend, and their record sits at 4-13. They have the second most losses in the NBA after the Warriors, who are fielding a glorified G-League team.
They are probably a little bit better than that record, with a net rating of minus 6.7, 25th in the league, and ahead of two teams who they’ve lost to this season, Cleveland and Charlotte. That means they have not won the games they’re “supposed” to win, to the extent that a 4-13 tam is “supposed” to win any games.
Now, with Thanksgiving mere days away and an upcoming five-game stretch in which they will be close to double-digit underdogs in every one, it’s time to face a harsh reality:
The Knicks might not be very good.
(I know, I know…I can’t believe it either: this level of insight comes free of charge.)
At some point you are what you are. Smart basketball people told us all summer that New York’s whole would not coalesce into something greater than the sum of its parts, and in fact, would result in something lesser. Thus far, that has born out in spades.
There’s only one thing left to ask…
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One Big Question
Can this get better?
Is 17 games into a season in which you’re integrating nine new pieces that don’t seamlessly fit, as well as depending on half a rotation that’s in their first, second or third years, too early to make the call that a team stinks?
After last night’s game, David Fizdale didn’t think so, referencing the Miami team from a few years ago that started 11-30 and finished 30-11. More recently, Utah started 19-28 two years ago and ended up with 48 wins.
Those are two of the most stable organizations in the sport, of course, with rosters that made sense, even when they were struggling. They also had engines behind their rise (Goran Dragic for Miami and Donovan Mitchell for Utah) that gave those offenses an identity. Even last year’s Hawks, a more realistic goal for these Knicks to aspire to, had Trae Young’s second-half surge to help them rebound from a 12-29 start to finish 17-24 the rest of the way.
At the very least, the players in the locker room still believe. Wayne Ellington (up 22%, $3.73 a share) also referenced that Heat team from his locker last night, which was unsurprising, since he was on it. Mitchell Robinson (down 14%, $2.90 a share) also hasn’t given up:
Despite Mitch’s faith, it would appear that the Knicks have none of what spurred Miami’s, Utah’s or Atlanta’s turnarounds at their disposal. Perhaps they remove the governor on RJ Barrett (no change, $1.24 a share) and hand the rookie the keys to the offense over the second half of the year, but that might yield more pain than gain.
There’s also a chance that a bunch of the young guys on this roster continue to improve. As it stands, the Knicks have been a lot better after a bumpy start to the year. After posting a net rating of negative 10.5 over their first eight games, they’re only negative 3.3 over their last seven. During that stretch, they beat Dallas, who is looking like (takes shot, cringes) a top six or seven team. Their year-long defense is ranked 19th, and (San Antonio’s pre-Thanksgiving carving party aside) appears to be getting better.
Perhaps most hopeful of all, they go through large stretches of games where they look downright competent on offense. For the second and third quarters this season, the Knicks have the 12th and 11th ranked offense in the league, respectively. Unfortunately, they’re also the slowest starter in the NBA by a country mile, with a 90.8 first quarter offensive rating after last night. The next worst team, the Cavs, is at 97.8. Read those two sentences again.
Even after the first Dallas game, when things started to turn around and the starting lineup stabalized, that first quarter number is only at 95.3. It’s unfair to blame one guy, but it’s also tough to miss the elephant in the room - someone who has left more than a bit to be desired on both ends of the court…
Dog House (not Dawg House)
Take a gander at the first two defensive possessions from Saturday night’s fake comeback against the San Antonio Spurs:
Here in play one, Taj Gibson (up 6%, $1.72 a share) has LaMarcus Aldridge - a player who has an unguardable jumper if he decides to take it, and you just have to hope he misses - as contained as anyone is ever going to have him.
Just as Aldridge is about to rise up for a shot, Julius Randle (down 8%, $2.91 a share) inexplicably comes over to double, opening up a pass to Jakob Poltl, who took a half second to realize just how Looney Tunes it was that his man left him alone. Marcus Morris, his closest defender at that point, was stuck between a rock and a hard place, and made the choice to cover DeMar DeRozan.
This is low basketball IQ at it’s finest. Randle thinks “we’re running a trapping scheme. I should trap now,” when in reality that’s the last thing he should do here.
Here’s the very next San Antonio possession:
You’ll notice that as the Knicks are coming down the court, Taj Gibson is at first on Poltl, which makes sense since he’s the opposing center. Midway through the possession, however, you can almost see Taj realizing “oh, shit…Julius thinks this is his man. Or maybe he’s just not thinking. Either way, maybe I should go guard the future Hall of Famer standing my himself,” and he switches onto Randle’s man, Aldridge.
Making matters worse, Randle (perhaps smarting from the mistake he made on the previous possession) doesn’t come over to help RJ Barrett, the 19-year-old defending perhaps the craftiest close-range shot artist in the game today.
This is exactly when you’re supposed to offer help, especially since anyone who’s watched basketball over the last ten years knows that DeRozan is many things, but a gifted and aware passer isn’t one of them.
You can even see Frank Ntilikina (no change, $0.28 a share) asking himself as this is happening “why the hell isn’t he helping?” and contemplating whether to go over and help himself. By then, of course, it’s too late. After the play, he seems to be a bit perturbed.
When the 21-year-old kid who the organization couldn’t give away is baffled by the very basic, very poor decision-making of the team’s big summer free agent prize, we have a problem.
Humble Suggestion
At the very least, we’ve seen enough that it shouldn’t be taboo any longer:
Julius Randle coming off the bench has to be considered.
I’ll admit that I feel bad picking on Randle for these two plays, especially after I spent Friday’s newsletter highlighting his first six shots from Wednesday’s loss in Philly, three of which were absolutely baffling.
To be fair, there was some progress last night. Randle only took 10 shots and made the correct pass almost every time he was doubled, including this pretty look to Taj Gibson:
That’s a great play! It’s also one that not many bigs in the league can make. But we also got this from earlier in the same game:
There was also the first quarter 3-pointer that Mike Breen flatly called out as a terrible shot. Then in the fourth, there was a missed hook shot with under four minutes to go and the Knicks down seven. That came with seven left on the clock, and should have never been taken.
At some point, its fair to ask the question of whether Randle would just be better served feasting against second units, where he can have the ball in his hands and potentially yield better results.
Is this all on Julius? There’s no way to know for sure. On one hand, as Kevin O’Connor wrote for the Ringer at the end of last week, Randle isn’t being used like he was last year, which was as a finisher – something he’s damn good at – and the numbers bear that out. On the other hand, we have no idea how much he’s demanding to have the ball in his hands, or whether his signing here in the first place was contingent on him getting the lion’s share of the offense run through him.
My guess is that it’s somewhere in between. The Knicks’ front office didn’t (or couldn’t) put enough spacing or playmaking on this roster to allow Randle to be at his best as a finisher, the coaching staff hasn’t been creative enough to try to unlock that part of his game, and Randle hasn’t consistently been unselfish enough to try and make the “right” play, like early in the season, when he was turning the ball over more trying to thread tough passes but also was dishing more assists.
Would moving him to the bench help? For that, we turn to:
Stat of the Night
114.7 / 98.1
One thought I had while writing this was for Randle to get more time with Dennis Smith Jr. (no change, $0.18 a share), who is more of a penetrating guard that might be able to set Julius up for the types of full-steam-ahead looks he feasted on last season.
And then I found the above numbers. The first (114.7) is the Knicks offensive rating during the 177 minutes Randle has played with Frank Ntilikina over the last seven games, and the second (98.1) is the same for the 51 minutes he’s played with Dennis Smith Jr.
Is this the be all, end all? Of course not, and a seven-game sample size inherently comes with a ton of noise.
But it’s interesting nonetheless, and speaks to the fact that for as much as everyone enjoys getting on this head coach for apparent crimes against humanity, this roster doesn’t provide many easy answers at his disposal either.
On that note…
Final Thought
Kavin Knox (down 3%, $0.81 a share) got the start at shooting guard last night thanks to RJ Barrett coming down with an illness. It was an ill-fated move from the get go, and the Nets picked him apart on defense early (with Randle doing no favors either), scoring 17 points in the first six minutes of the game. There were more plays throughout the night where he was taken advantage of.
I said on the postgame periscope that the decision may have lost New York the game. Inserting Wayne Ellington instead of Knox provides more movement, better shooting, and stable if unspectacular defense. Damyean Dotson (no change, $13.63 a share) would have been another option, or Dennis Smith Jr. for that matter.
David Fizdale isn’t a stupid man, and he surely knew this was not a bet he was likely to win, at least if returns were judges on last night alone. Initially, I felt that giving a player a chance to prove himself in a situation in which he would almost certainly fail was foolish, and there’s still a part of me that questions the decision.
That said, after the game, Fiz praised Knox for his effort, and thought he gave them positive minutes (he was -5 in 18 minutes FWIW). He no doubt said the same thing to Kevin himself. At the very least, the next game he checks into, likely at his normal position in his normal bench role, he will have an easier go of things. Maybe the trickle down effect is that he begins, ever so slightly, to improve.
Whether that does or doesn’t happen, and regardless of whether this did in fact lose them the game, it does show us one thing: Fizdale is still thinking long term. Does that mean he’s any more or less the right coach for this team? That’s a different question, and not one I’m prepared to answer yet.
But for a guy who will likely get fired if there aren’t enough W’s in his column, we should at least give him credit for trying something, however ill-fated, with long-term benefits in mind.
Help Us Help Others!!!
Our Thanksgiving Drive is coming down the home stretch!
We’re very close to our goal of $3500, which will help feed 100 needy families on Thanksgiving. Frank Ntilikina (I committed to donate $2 for every point he scored from last Wednesday to this Tuesday) has me on the hook for $62 so far.
Keep it coming Frankie. To donate, click here, and once again, thank you to everyone who has already given!
Film School
Spencer Pearlman put together a video of Frankie’s awesome defensive effort from Saturday night:
Also, Dallas Amico highlighted some ways that Ntilikina needs to improve on offense for this team to consistently generate easy looks:
New Podcast
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Posting & Toasting has their usual excellent recap, this courtesy of Joe Flynn.
Marc Berman writes about David Fizdale’s job status.
528 had a piece detailing how Mitchell Robinson is actually Wilt Chamberlain, except he isn’t on the court enough to show us all.
Finally, Rick Pitino told the Knicks to draft Donovan Mitchell. Yipee.
On This Date: Melo scores 29 to lead Knicks past Pistons 121-100
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
The Knicks jumped out of the gate with a hot start to the 2012-13 season. In their matchup against the Pistons, they showcased the formula that would lead the team to their first Eastern Conference Semifinals since the 1999-2000 season.
That’s it! See everyone tomorrow.