Keeping it Real
The games that don't count are over. As we get ready for the regular season, a lot of questions have been answered, but some key ones still remain. Let's dive in.
Good morning! This edition of the Knicks Film School Newsletter is free for everyone, but if you’re not a full subscriber and would like to become one, all this week I’m offering a full year’s subscription of the newsletter for 20% off. That’s $40 a year or $4 per month! Just click here:
Now on to a jam-packed weekend recap…
News & Notes - On Court
The Knicks blew out the Cavs in their final preseason effort on Friday night, 119-83. They led by as many as 49 points, and the entire second half was essentially extended gar-bhaj time. There were also a number of players out with injuries, although Tom Thibodeau admitted that the holdouts were both precautionary and an effort to get some different looks.
So with no Elfrid Payton, Nerlens Noel, Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr, Austin Rivers, Omari Spellman, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Alec Burks (who missed the game due to the birth of his child, per Stefan Bondy), the starting lineup featured Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Reggie Bullock, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson, with Jared Harper, Theo Pinson, Iggy Brazdeikis, Kevin Knox and Obi Toppin serving as the primary backups. Myles Powell and Bryce Brown got time at the end of the fourth.
🤔 Analysis: Quickley was the big story, as I wrote about over the weekend, but Kevin Knox hitting 6-of-7 from deep - making him 9 for his last 10 from long range - can’t be understated. Mitchell Robinson was also outstanding, committing zero fouls in 27 minutes. He was a team-high +46.
Julius Randle was also the absolute best version of himself - not the highest of bars, granted- dishing eight dimes to just two turnovers. He ended the preseason averaging 5.5 assists per game, tops on the team. While it’s easy to poke holes in this number, the fact is that Randle is looking to distribute more than he has in the past, and is cutting back on a lot of the nonsense. More progress is needed, but it’s been a good start.
3️⃣ 2️⃣ 1️⃣ By the numbers: It should be noted that the Cavs were without both Andre Drummond and Kevin Love, not to mention Dante Exum and Larry Nance Jr. That said, the Knicks played the most cohesive basketball we have seen from them in some time. They continued to pass it with a purpose, finishing the pre-season 7th in the NBA in assist percentage. Their defense has also looked good - they finished with a 91.1 defensive rating, second overall - but the competition factors largely into this stingy number.
On the downside, outside of when Quickley has been in the game, the Knicks have continued to play at a snail’s pace, and finished tied for last in the preseason as one of only three teams with a pace under 100. They’re also turning it over 18.8 percent of the time, 6th worst in the NBA, and are still having trouble keeping opponents off the glass, with a 22nd ranked defensive rebounding rate of 72.8.
💦 💦 Making a splash: The Knicks are one of five teams this preseason to average at least 10 steals and five blocks per game, and are the only team to average both 10 blocks and five steals per 100 possessions.
➡️➡️➡️ Next Up: The regular season opens on Wednesday at Indiana. Tip off is at 7 pm.
According to Marc Berman, the Knicks now see RJ Barrett as more of a small forward than a shooting guard.
Analysis: Does it matter? He’s a wing that needs to play alongside someone who is a deadeye shoot, moves around the court a lot, and can chase around smaller players on defense. Call him whatever you want.
News & Notes - Off Court
The Knicks made their final roster decisions about an hour and a half before the 11pm deadline on Saturday night, past which all non-guaranteed contracts would have become guaranteed. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Myles Powell and Bryce Brown are all gone, although some or all will probably remain with the organization in the G-League. Iggy Brazdeikis and Omari Spellman, meanwhile, live to see another day.
Analysis: Nothing about this decision should come as a shock, but because it’s the Knicks, and nothing around here ever happens normally, it kinda did.
I wrote extensively on Friday about how the Exhibit 10 process works, so check that out if you want a full explanation, but in short, expect the Knicks to designate Myles Powell as an “affiliate” player, meaning the only way another team can steal him is if they offer him an NBA contract or one of their two-way spots. I would not expect that to happen.
Brown will go into the same bucket as all the other previously waived guys (Skal, Young, etc). As I explained last week, it’s still unclear as to whether teams will get more than the usually allotted four affiliate spots. If not, the Knicks will have to choose who they want to “protect,” and who will be eligible to be drafted by other G-League squads, assuming a G-League draft still occurs.
Lastly, just a gut feeling, but I don’t think MKG will ever spend a minute in Westchester. My guess would be that he waits it out until the Knicks open up a roster spot and then re-signs at that time.
College Corner
Switching us up to a more abbreviated format now that the NBA season is here…hope you like!
Tier Me Up
⓵ - Cade Cunningham (PG)
⓶ - Evan Mobley (C), Jalen Suggs (PG)
Suggs had maybe his best game of the season over the weekend, which included going 7-of-10 from deep, several of which were off the dribble and/or of the step back variety. He has people believing he will be a franchise-changing level point guard at the next level.
⓷ - Jalen Green (SG), Jonathan Kuminga (SF)
These are the G-League guys, and they’re in a tier by themselves only because no one has seen them yet (well, that’s not quite true. The tape of their most recent scrimmage, in which Kuminga had 26 on 11-of-15 shooting and Green ended up with 22, is floating around. I heard from someone who’s seen it that Kuminga didn’t quite pop like the stat line suggests, and that Green’s first step is indeed as advertised). In any case, there’s enough mystery here that maybe one or both emerges in the “franchise changer” category like the three above, but we just don’t know it. What we do know is that no one below them has yet earned that designation.
⓸ - Scottie Barnes (PG/PF)
In a tier by himself for me right now, just because Barnes is directing the FSU offense and he can do some things that can’t be taught, but he’s also not going to single-handedly cure your franchise. He’s also coming off his worst game, FSU’s first loss in which he had just eight points and three dimes.
⓹ - BJ Boston (SG), Zaire Williams (SF/PF), Jalen Johnson (PF, out indefinitely - foot), Keon Johnson (SG), Moses Moody (SG)
The first three have had up and down seasons so far. In the case of Keon Johnson (a star on defense more than offense) and Moody (3&D), they don’t profile as the types of guy who will be able to rise too much higher, but have played well.
Keep An Eye On…
James Bouknight, U'Conn’s sophomore shooting guard who just put up 40 against Creighton and looks like an advanced shot creator. He’s averaging 24 a game and is worth tabbing as this year’s draft riser.
Stat of the Weekend
Immanuel Quickley scored over 20 points, went to the line seven times and dished five assists, all in under 30 minutes of action. No Knick rookie guard has ever done that in a regular season game. The closest, RJ Barrett, did so while playing 30 minutes against Houston in March.
Tweet of the Weekend
I can’t tell who’s going to be more vocal after Immanuel Quickley’s emergence: Frank haters saying “I told you so” or Frankophiles saying “I was just looking!”
Here’s the thing that all of us can and should embrace: Ntilikina has played 178 games in the NBA. He’s never scored over 20 points and only once has he attempted at least seven free throws.
There is still a world where Frank is an incredibly helpful player, maybe even for this team, because we’ve already seen it. But he’s not the point guard the Knicks need right now.
Quickley will surely taper off, and Ntilikina may yet emerge as the more valuable of the two in the long run, but for right now, the Knicks need a guy who can do things that Frank simply doesn’t.
As many have long said, his ceiling exists alongside a jumbo initiator, where he can stay in his comfort zone and not be asked to force the issue. For now though, maybe he can still have a role here as a jack of all trades who can knock down shots, keep the ball moving, and defend his ass off.
I’m not sure I’d bet on it though, which brings us to…
Rotation River
Why am I keeping with our rotation/gambling theme from a few weeks back? Two reasons:
It’s just as applicable now as it was then.
It gives me an excuse to plop this gem in the newsletter:
One change: I’m switching from roulette to poker. The reason? For as much as we think we know about what Thibs is going to do, there’s still a lot of options on the table and much could change.
That’s why I’m only giving you the two hole cards. A lot can still happen on the flop (Game 3-ish), to say nothing of the turn (Game 8-10) and the river (Game 20-25 or so, which is when I think we’ll finally be settled in to something permanent). Thibs said weeks ago that he’d continue to tinker with the starting lineup and rotation after the season got started, and his history as a head coach backs this up.
Let’s see who’s getting lucky to start though:
🂡🂱
Pocket Aces (Bullets) - RJ Barrett and Julius Randle
Obi’s been green enough behind the ears to secure Randle’s spot in the starting five. If there was any question as to how much Thibs sees this team revolving around his top two guys, here were the NBA’s preseason minutes leaders after Friday night:
🂮🃎
Pocket Kings (Cowboys) - Obi Toppin, Mitchell Robinson
Third and fourth on the New York’s preseason minutes leaderboard were Obi Toppin and Mitchell Robinson, with 102 and 100 minutes played, respectively. The next highest total was 76, showing that there was a sizable gap between the top four and everyone else. My guess is that this quartet will be atop that list for the Knicks for as long as Randle is still here. Whether they start or not is up for debate, but playing time for Obi and Mitch are as secure as anyone’s.
🃚🃊
Pocket Tens (Dimes) - Immanuel Quickley, Nerlens Noel, Alec Burks
Burks and Noel were just signed and have played well (although I think Thibs will continue to commit around five minutes a game to Toppin and Randle together, so I could see Noel’s minutes average staying around the 18.5 it was last season).
As for Quickley, I’d be lying if I said I had a clue as to how to read this situation. On its face, putting aside the hyperbole of my Saturday reaction, the kid kicked the offense into a higher gear. As I wrote Friday, Elfrid Payton has hit under 20 percent of his last 100 professional 3-point attempts. Quickley is advanced defensively for a rookie and seems to be setting the example where work ethic and effort are concerned.
And yet…there is something gnawing at me when I go to pencil him in for 25 minutes in every game he’s healthy and available for. It’s not the Thibs/rookie thing either, because Thibodeau has never faced a situation like this, where a first-year player so clearly represented the best “Get Out of Jail Free” card he had available. It might be that I can’t get past the consequences of the move. Do they stick the presumptive starter at the end of the bench? Or do they put the final nail in Dennis Smith Jr’s coffin?
One of these two things is bound to happen if Quickley remains in the rotation. Even if they move him to an off-ball role, that would cut into the minutes of Austin Rivers, who would seem to have a better claim to playing time than either Payton or Smith.
Honestly, it’s probably just 20 years’ worth of this franchise never doing the smart, obvious thing, and the fact that this is arguably the smartest and most obvious of all the things.
Either way, two tens is what Quickley gets dealt.
🂱🂪
Ace / Ten - Austin Rivers, Kevin Knox
At halftime of Wednesday night’s game - at which point Kevin Knox was 4-for-15 and looking mostly lost on offense - I received the following DM:
The sender wasn’t wrong.
Since then, Knox has gone 11-of-15 and has been New York’s leading scorer. So the question becomes: if someone looked like they barely deserved consideration for a rotation spot after 10 quarters, can they now be considered a near lock because of the last six?
I don’t know the answer, but I feel fairly confident that the entire organization (Thibs included) was looking for any excuse to give Knox a real chance to prove himself, and he’s given them at least that. That he was fifth in preseason minutes also shouldn’t be discounted.
As for Rivers, I’d have had him a category higher if it wasn’t for the injury, but it’s not like several other backcourt players have established themselves in his absence.
Which brings us to…
🂲🃒
Pocket Twos - Elfrid Payton
The best worst hand you can be dealt. Or the worst best hand. Does it even matter? Either way, no one is ever thrilled when they see ducks staring up at them, although you could always do worse.
That’s Elf in a nutshell, and I think in the end, he wins a spot over the other available choices. Entrusting the point guard reigns to DSJ and Quickley is too volatile. Similarly, riding with IQ and a combination of quasi/fake point guards like Rivers, Frank and RJ just doesn’t seem like Thibodeau’s style. He said recently that he considers spots two through four in the lineup fairly interchangeable, which - along with his history - suggests that he wants a true floor general on the court at all times.
Does Payton have a 50 percent chance of starting on opening night? An 85 percent chance? A 15 percent chance? Your guess is as good as mine.
🂨🃆
Eight / Six (Pooch) - Reggie Bullock, Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr
It feels like months ago, but Thibs pretty clearly showed his hand in the first couple preseason games in terms of how he viewed his prospective shooting guard rotation:
Game 1: Burks got the start, Frank came in for Burks to play with the subs, and then Bullock entered for Frank to play with the starters. The same thing happened in the second half, except Bullock subbed in for DSJ in the fourth, giving Ntilikina a few minutes of run as the point guard.
Game 2: Same deal, except Bullock and Frank swapped roles, with Reggie seeing minutes with the subs and Ntilikina finishing off the first half and playing a good portion of the fourth quarter.
Frank and Burks both missed games three and four, so it’s hard to read anything into either one, other than the fact that Ntilikina’s absence may have essentially been an admission by Thibs that he’d seen enough.
Was it good enough, bad enough, or just enough enough? Ntilikina was solid but unspectacular, which ought to be his nickname by now. Bullock, on the other hand, had a brutal game three, going 1-for-6 from deep including several open looks, but was 5-for-13 on the other nights.
Who had the better showing? Ultimately I’m not sure it matters if Rivers, as I suspect, winds up with the backup shooting guard minutes when he’s back. One thing I am quite certain of is that if Thibs has to turn to someone else, he’s going to play the guy he think gives him the best chance to win. The days of “investing'“ in Frank’s development, to the extent that ever occurred in New York, are done.
Oh, and Dennis. Yeah…about him.
For as much as I’ve waxed poetic about his defensive effort - it has been stellar - the team has been outscored by 10.8 points per 100 possessions in the preseason when he has played. Reggie Bullock (-8.4) is the only other Knick regular in the red.
Tom Thibodeau holds practice - both in its importance to the team and in its pathways to glory for individual players - as sacred as Allen Iverson decried it. If he is truly calling the shots, he will challenge Smith Jr. to earn a rotation spot there. There’s little doubt that opportunities will come up, and maybe even a permanent chance if Payton falters or is moved.
🂲🂧
Seven / Two (WHIP) - Iggy Brazdeikis, Omari Spellman, Jared Harper, Theo Pinson
Of these, Harper has the clearest path to playing time, even if it is by default. Spellman essentially has three players blocking his path, as Thibs has felt comfortable using one of the Randle/Toppin combo at center. Pinson and Iggy, meanwhile, are behind a logjam of wings.
Harper might be a Dennis Smith Jr trade away from the backup point guard job, assuming Payton eventually gets phased out (can we assume this please?)
Some Things I Liked…
The big story from the weekend was obviously Immanuel Quickley, and to a (slightly) lesser extent Kevin Knox, but there was plenty else to be happy about from Friday’s preseason finale. I’m going to run through a few of those moments here, and why I think they’re worth getting excited over.
Mitchell Robinson, Steady Eddy
While I think the whole “Mitchell Robinson is just a shot blocker who does’t yet know how to play NBA defense” thing was widely overblown heading into this season, if you had to summarize his defensive efforts over the last few years, “messy” would be an appropriate word. For every moment of brilliance, there would be a head-scratcher that made you wonder if he would ever really get it.
Well, he seems to be getting it.
Aside from the small adjustments - keeping his hands outstretched from the beginning of the possession, calling out the coverage, etc - Mitch resists the urge to bite on any of Collin Sexton’s tomfoolery here. Even better, he positions himself perfectly to take away the lob to McGee. His footwork still isn’t perfect, but he never gets crossed up - a positive little sign.
And then of course, at the end of the play, Robinson does what he does best: sends a shot attempt back from whence it came.
If this is a sign of things to come, holy hell are opponents going to have an issue trying to get anything at the rim when Mitch is in the game.
On the Move
Obi Toppin has been a bit of a disappointment thus far - he’s still finding his way around the basket, the shot hasn’t started falling, and his defense has been as advertised (although he’s clearly trying and seems to be learning) - but the one area that’s been outstanding is his passing.
It hasn’t shown up in the numbers - only six dimes in four games - but he has already displayed the quick decision-making, vision and accuracy to make plays for others, not to mention the ability to put the ball on the floor.
There aren’t many 4/5’s in the NBA that can pull off this pass to Knox, who himself deserves a lot of credit for this play being possible. Aside from making the shot, he does a great job of repositioning to the opposite corner at exactly the right time.
(In general, this is just some nice offense being run by a coach who seems to do more with his clipboard than write inspirational musings.)
Of course, Toppin drawing two defenders to the rim - including Knox’s man - obviously helped quite a bit. The shots will start falling, and his devastation at the rim should show up soon enough.
RJ Barrett, Attempting to Make Plays
Thibs has spoken about getting RJ more involved as a playmaker, and while the intentionality is there, it is also still clearly a work in progress. Barrett has eight dimes to 10 turnovers on the year, but the sorts of plays he’s looking to make are the right ones, and eventually, they’ll start becoming more successful.
Here’s one of the good ones, on a nifty BLOB play in the third quarter:
The pass itself is nice, but just as impressive is the screen from Mitch - another area that he’s subtly improved this season.
The RJ/Mitch combo was relatively effective last season, with the Knicks scoring 110.5 points per 100 possessions when that pairing was on the court together according to Cleaning the Glass. That number dropped to 104.9 when Barrett played without Robinson, which was right in line with the outsized effect New York’s young center had on most players.
Unfortunately, RJ played about 1000 more non-garbage time possessions without Mitch than with him. Hopefully they flip that script this year.
As I noted though, things haven’t been all good on the playmaking front:
This was a really difficult pass made only more difficult by RJ sharing the court with Julius at the four. Still, you’d like to see Barrett display a little more patience here - something he’s certainly done more of on other possessions throughout the preseason.
Overall though, you like the intent, and with less of a thicket of bodies to navigate, this is one RJ should be able to pull off in the coming weeks and months.
That’s it for today. If you’re a baseball fan, don’t forget to subscribe for free to JB’s Mets Briefing. See everyone tomorrow! #BlackLivesMatter
OK - Here is my preference for the final line up.
Quickley has forced the issue and needs to start. Payton was signed as an emergency option and isn't the future. He and DSJR shouldn't be in the rotation at all.
It never happens but there are a lot of reasons to build two equal units and play them both about 24 minutes a game. You usually want to put your best players on the first team while still building solid individual units but I think this group will do better if you build each unit based on who needs to play with Quickley. Because that will put the guys who need the most minutes on both units I'd just play them equal minutes and eliminate the griping about who starts and who doesn't. You probably get better units and happier players if you go with the best fits and just ignore the who deserves more time questions. They can add as much practice time as they need if they aren't getting enough minutes during the game.
I think the shift we see this year is positionless basketball replacing the traditional PG. 2 bigs with one being a shot blocker and 3 wings. 3 guys who prefer the ball in their hand or who are at least able to pass/create on each unit.
My first draft
Quickley - RJ - Knox - Randle - MItch
Rivers - Burks - Bullock - Obi - Noel
My biggest remaining question is Randle and Obi. I'd prefer Obi on the younger unit in a way but I also prefer to start the younger unit and think Randle is a better fit to start against Sabonis. This is what leads me to throw up my hands a bit and wish for two units that play equal minutes but where the unit that starts is based on matchups, practice and other day to day questions.
For those who say Obi is good and Randle is bad my comeback is this. Randle has the tools to be much better and has the tools to be a very good player in this league. He also hasn't developed as needed and doesn't make a lot of decisions that would improve his game. He's now in an environment built to help him comfortably develop his game. He's also in a season where he'd better look good if he wants a big contract. He's a young, coachable guy who is massively talented and highly motivated to improve this year. I'd rate him as much and as good of a prospect as anyone else on the team. If he changes his game the right way and does everything he's told he's a legit playoff team starter. Finding guys like that is what a rebuild is all about. Finding undeveloped players with NBA experience is a totally viable way to find talent because so many guys come out before they are ready and because teams don't have time to develop players.
My second draft
Quickley - RJ - Knox - Obi - MItch
Rivers - Burks - Bullock - Randle - Noel
This feels safer for opening night if they start the Rivers unit and play each one for 24 minutes. My first choice would be these two units. In game one I'd start the Rivers unit.
I'd move/cut DSJR and Payton. Neither have the potential to develop into anything of value to this team and the roster spots need to be freed up. Payton as insurance wasn't a terrible move and DSJR was never a real return piece for Porzingis so no one should even have any regrets. They have value to other teams but not enough to get anything in trade or to even tie up roster spots looking for a deal.
Spellman doesn't look like the answer to any basketball questions and coming into camp that soft makes me think his motivation isn't a good fit.
Trades?
Would it be worthwhile to trade MItch to the Warriors for Wiseman if the other half of the deal was Wiggins and the Minn 2021 1st. Randle most likely goes in that deal to balance the money. I'd do it even though I probably wouldn't start Wiggins and with Mitch being much cheaper and better at least at this point. Wiseman is probably better and cheaper as soon as next year and the free agent thing in 2021 isn't happening so I'm happy getting the third 1st round pick instead of whatever free agent we would have gotten.
And now for the anti keeping it real trade proposal.
Houston trades Harden, Gordon and Tucker for Simmons and Wiggins
Philly trades Simmons and Maxey for Harden and Frank.
GSW trade Wiggins and Wiseman for Mitch, Gordan, Tucker and Bullock.
The Knicks trade Mitch, Frank and Bullock for Wiseman, Maxey and Green.
Pre Season Pet Peeve - Thibs doesn't design lineups to pacify irrational Knicks fans. I keep hearing people talk about this or that guy starting to keep fans happy. If that happens he should be fired. Anyone who talks about the Knicks making the wrong move to support the mental health of Knicks fans just shouldn't talk about basketball. (not directed at our host)