Looks Can Be Deceiving

Is White Plains' own AJ Griffin the right pick for the Knicks? We dive deep on the sweet shooting Blue Devil today.

Good morning! Today we dedicate the newsletter to a young man who certainly would not mind the commute to Tarrytown if he was drafted by the Knicks. But first, another trade!

🗣 News & Notes ✍️

🏀 The Mavs agreed to a trade for Houston Rockets’ stretch big man Christian Wood yesterday, agreeing to send the 26th pick in Thursday’s draft plus basically all of its unwanted expiring salary in the form of Boban Marjanovic, Trey Burke, Sterling Brown and Marquese Chriss. Because of the Stepien Rule which prohibits teams from trading future firsts in back to back years and the fact that New York owns the Mavs first rounder in 2023, this trade cannot be consummated until after the draft. It does not affect the Mavs’ draft obligation to the Knicks in any way, nor does it add any salary for next season.

I wrote about Wood as a Knicks trade target back in early May and mentioned Dallas as a possible competitor for his services, but didn’t think Wood was worth tying up their future outgoing draft equity. Using this year’s pick instead of something several years out takes care of that issue.

It also makes it quite clear that Wood’s value on the open market was pretty low, which may be an indication about him as a player, a sign that teams simply aren’t willing to pony up decent assets on the center position, or both. I wrote about the pluses and minuses of Wood’s game back in May, but it’s hard to argue that he’s not an ideal fit to play with Luka Doncic - basically a better shooting version of Maxi Kleber who also serves as a lob threat. It’s telling that all Houston was able to get was a late first in a draft where such picks are seemingly readily available (recall the Denver/OKC trade from a few days ago, plus the Fischer report about Dallas and Golden State looking to offload their late firsts).

One possible explanation: as I noted back in May, Wood isn’t likely to be an extension candidate because his cheap 2022-23 salary of $14.3 limits his extension to a number that starts at about $17.2 million, which figures to be below his market value. Maybe other teams didn’t want to deal with that uncertainty. This could also be about Houston not wanting to wait to trade Wood knowing that they’re about to draft another big man on Thursday and wanting to get this done early.

Either way, we can draw a couple of conclusions where the Knicks are concerned:

1. You can probably cross Dallas, who has long been rumored as a possible Mitchell Robinson suitor, off the list of destinations for the big man. Maybe the Mavs would want to pay Robinson to be their backup, and Dwight Powell going back to New York would make the math work in a sign and trade, but I don’t see a world where the Knicks let Mitch go just to replace him with a lesser player. I fully believe Robinson will go to the highest bidder, and while I remain dubious that winds up being New York, that’s only because the Knicks may be looking to go in a different direction. That direction is not Dwight Powell.

2. On a related note, this trade makes me wonder yet again: where, exactly, is Robinson getting his big pay day? Prepare to be shocked by the years/dollars he winds up settling for, whether its from New York or someone else.

3. Keep an eye on Houston on draft night. They now have 17 and 26 in addition to the third pick, and after this trade, will have 16 NBA salaries for the 2022-23 season that are either fully guaranteed or likely to be fully guaranteed, and that’s not including their incoming rookies. They could, of course, wind up waiving one or all of the players they just acquired to open up roster spots, but that would leave a lot of dead money on their books. I’m sure they’ll be looking to consolidate and move up, although with the tepid league-wide appetite for late firsts, I’m not sure how easy that will be.

4. I saw some folks on Twitter lamenting this as taking away a possible trade destination for Julius Randle. Wood will play the five for the Mavs, so this doesn’t really change anything, although as Mike Bascik said on Tuesday’s podcast, Dallas doesn’t much appetite for adding the hometown product to their roster.

5. This could make a Brunson sign an trade a lot tougher to execute. Because of the base year compensation issues I’ve written about here so many times, the outgoing salary for Dallas would need to be very particular and would almost certainly require sending a small, expendable salary to a third team. With this trade, the Mavs have just disposed of all of their small, expendable salaries with the possible exception of Frank Ntilikina, who they seem to like.

On that last point, I don’t think that puts the kibosh on a possible Brunson sign and trade just yet. Remember, this trade can’t be consummated until after the draft, and there’s no reason the Rockets and Mavs can’t wait to make it official until after the new league year begins following the start of free agency. We’ve seen announced trades later expanded to include additional teams and players in the past. It’s entirely possible this turns into a larger transaction which includes Brunson going to the Knicks at a later time, although we’ll have to see if they make it official in the week following the draft.

Looks Can Be Deceiving

Of all the prospects we’ve looked at so far, I’m not sure that the case for any one of them can be distilled down with as much simplicity as that of AJ Griffin. When building the argument in favor the Duke freshman, there are four numbers that stand out above the rest:

• 44.7

• 18.8

• 6'6"

• 222

Allow me to explain…

44.7: This is Griffin’s 3-point percentage last year at Duke. It is the second highest of any major conference freshman to attempt at least 150 threes in the last decade and a half, trailing only Marquette’s Markus Howard - a 5'11" guard - five year ago.

18.8: Griffin’s age. It makes him the second youngest player likely to go in the first round this season, older than only Jalen Duren. We’ll get back to why this is important in a bit.

6'6", 222: Griffin’s height and weight. In other words, he’s built like RJ Barrett with about seven additional pounds of what sure looks like pure muscle.

We’ll start at the end, because it’s why, at first glance, Griffin looks like he is the prototypical NBA wing for the modern game. In yet another postseason where the most complete teams continue to hunt the weakest link on the opposing defense, Griffin’s height and build make it seem like he should be able to switch up and down the lineup with ease.

That same build stands out prominently in other parts of his game, most especially his shot:

When Griffin hoists from long range, he resembles one of the Great Pyramids: an extremely wide base that allows him to use his strength to minimize movement. It isn’t the quickest release, but a super high release point is part of what made him so effective from downtown all season long, and why there’s little doubt this will translate to the pros.