On the Brink

The Knicks went 0-for-Atlanta this weekend. There are more than a few reasons why.

Good Morning Knicks Faithful.

Do you still have faith? Maybe, maybe not. After two straight dispiriting losses, both of which featured stretches of dominance by the Hawks interspersed with moments of surviving more than thriving by the Knicks, it’s hard not to have wavering confidence.

But wherever your level of confidence is, this series is still not over, and so we will save the postmortems until it is. For today, lets’ digest Game 4 while also tying together some of the big picture themes of the playoffs so far.

Lastly, our usual Monday reminder: if you’re not a full subscriber, feel free to become one:

Game 4: Knicks 96, Hawks, 113 - “It’s Getting Late Early.”

⌚️ ICYMI: For the second straight game, the Knicks ended the first quarter with a lead thanks to some spectacular play from their new starting point guard, but it was followed by several Hawk runs buoyed by strong shooting (15-for-39 from deep) and the ability to get to the line (26-for-28), all spurred by Trae Young’s continued wizardry, whereas New York’s long range woes and inconsistent play from the top of their roster were enough to do them in.

1️⃣ 2️⃣ 3️⃣ Big Takeaways…

1️⃣ The Shots Aren’t Dropping

Over the Knicks final 27 games of the season, they made double digit threes 25 times, failing to reach that mark only twice. Over their final 17 games, starting with the win in New Orleans, New York averaged over 14 made threes per game and converted at a rate of 44 percent from behind the arc. That mark was the best in the NBA over that stretch, with the gap between them and the second place Blazers the same as the gap between Portland and the 18th place Wizards.

Now, all of the sudden, the threes aren’t dropping. Yesterday, Reggie Bullock had another O-for, missing all three of his attempts to fall to 28.6 percent for the series after hitting 43 percent of his triples after the All-Star break. Alec Burks (2-for-6 yesterday, 33.3 percent for the series, 41.5 percent this season) and Immanuel Quickley (0-for-2 yesterday, 22.2 percent for the series, 38.9 percent this season) have also been off, with all three having moments of hesitancy.

Given that these are the three players who the Hawks have been hiding Trae Young on, the fact that they’re unable to produce on offense has been a big part of why this series currently stands where it does.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is hitting 38.2 percent of their long balls for the series. There looks have also been far more open, which gets us to…

2️⃣ A Tale of Two Stars

Both on Saturday and before yesterday’s game, Tom Thibodeau’s message regarding Julius Randle was unequivocal: he needed to be himself, and that meant playing without hesitation.

And yesterday, especially early, he tried to exert his will on the game, taking nine shots in the first quarter. He looked more like the Randle we’ve seen all season long: decisive, assertive, and shooting it with confidence.

Unfortunately, the shots still weren’t really dropping, and he hit just three of those attempts, included misses on several long twos that Randle has feasted on all year. He ended up 7-for-19 for 23 points to go with 10 rebounds, seven assists and two steals (along with five turnovers). There were some really good moments in the mix:

It was a perfectly OK game (on offense at least), and better than his recent outings. Just looking at his numbers against Trae Young (27 points on 21 shots, only 4-for-14 from deep, nine assists) it doesn’t looks like their impacts were terribly different, but anyone watching the game new better. Every minute Young is on the court for the Hawks, things just come easier:

• Atlanta Offensive Rating, Young on: 113.9

• Atlanta Offensive Rating, Young off: 95.1

Granted, those splits also correspond with when Capela and Bogey play, but its clear who the genesis of the attack is at all times.

Randle, meanwhile, hasn’t quite had the same effect:

• New York Offensive Rating, Randle on: 101.4

• New York Offensive Rating, Randle off: 106.0

Of course, it’s not as simple as this…but at the same time, the numbers are what they are.

3️⃣ Quarter of Doom

The Knicks have had at least one each game.

In Game 1, they had their offensive woes to start, scoring 16 points in the first, and their defensive woes to end, giving up 36 in the fourth.

Game 2 saw them struggle for an entire half, but live to tell the tale.

In Game 3, the second quarter was their undoing, when they were outscored 29-13, and then yesterday, it was the third, with a 35-22 Atlanta margin.

This is the sort of thing that happens when you simply don’t have the requisite depth to win on this stage. New York has lived and died by Randle all season, but with Atlanta’s concerted effort to stop him by any means necessary, the Knicks only horse that has gotten out of the gate unscathed every game has been Derrick Rose.

That’s simply not enough.

📈 Turning Points 📉

It seems silly to highlight just a few moments in a game that saw the home team take a 25-point fourth quarter lead, but in many ways, Game 4 felt closer than Game 3, which was ultimately an 11-point margin and never saw the lead balloon to more than 17.

In that first Atlanta home game, after the Hawks made it 55-42 with just over a minute left in the first half, New York never reduced the lead below a dozen until the last 30 seconds. Game 4, meanwhile, saw Atlanta’s lead reduced to seven more than halfway through the third after a neck-and-neck first half in which the Knicks were starting to find themselves on the offensive end. Alas, this one got away from them in a significant way.

How did the game turn like it did? And could it have gone differently? There are four plays that tell the story:

Play 1: Knicks up 38-37, Reggie fouls Trae

The refs continue to get a lot of attention this series, mostly because they don’t seem to have a rat fart’s worth of an idea what they’re doing. Other than that, great job by them.

Case in point: you had to watch this play a few times and at just the right angle to see the contact Reggie Bullock makes on Trae Young’s arm. To say there was heavier contact not called on other end of the court would be an understatement. Stars get calls, and Trae Young has indeed played like a star, fouls or no fouls, but still, you’d like to get a fair whistle, even if that’s not the reason they lost.

After this, Young made the free throw, Taj Gibson was called for a moving screen on the other end, and then after a switch got Gibson onto Young when the Hawks were back on offense, Trae nailed a three. Hawks up five.

Play 2: Knicks up 44-43, Randle gives Collins too much room

The Hawks went on a few runs in this game, and every one was dispiriting in its own way. There was a 9-0 run in under a minute, all on 3-pointers, that turned a 30-25 Knicks lead into a 34-30 deficit, but New York was able to survive that one, actually taking a 44-43 lead after a Gibson steal and an RJ fast break dunk.

But on the very next Hawks possession, Julius Randle was hanging too far in the paint despite the fact that RJ seemed to have good containment on a driving Bogdanovic, who then kicked out to John Collins for a wide open three.

Collins is clearly someone the Knicks have felt more comfortable helping off of, and after hitting just 4-of-11 to start the series, he made 2-of-3 yesterday, including this one. Following a Randle miss on New York’s next possession, Collins beat Julius down the floor for an easy alley oop from Trae, which was then followed by a Randle Turnover and a Bogey triple. Hawks up seven.

Play 3: Knicks down 68-59, Reggie travels

The Hawks’ lead ballooned from four to 14 in the first five minutes coming out of halftime, but the Knicks battled back with some aggressive defense, and after this RJ steal, they had a chance to cut the lead to seven with a 2-on-1 fast break.

Barrett passed to Reggie, who couldn’t get his footing, and got called for the travel. It was part of the first scoreless game for Bullock since January 22. The Knicks need the guy who averaged 14 points per game over the final quarter of the season, not this shell of a player who hasn’t impacted the series in any significant way. Without him, their offense simply doesn’t have the same pop we saw towards the end of the year.

The Knicks did briefly get the lead down to seven after this, but a 10-0 Hawks run comprised of seven Hawk free throws surrounding a Young 3-pointer ended New York’s last best chance. Well, almost their last one…

Play 4: Knicks down 90-72, Obi Pops

Damn straight I’m using this as an excuse to sneak an Obi Toppin highlight in today’s newsletter. He wasn’t good enough to get a star of the game, but he did finish with 13 points on eight shots in 19 minutes of action, the most he’s played since two blowout losses to the Spurs and Bucks bookending the All-Star break.

Yes, there was a bit of garbage time at the end of this one, but we also saw Thibs resort to small-ball with Obi and Julius together while the Knicks attempted a latch-ditch comeback in the fourth. We’ll look at that stretch later this week.

Before Randle joined Toppin though, we had this conversion, which brought the Knicks within 16 with just under 11 to go. Alec Burks had a look at the rim on the next possession to get it to 14, but he missed, which was followed by nine straight from Atlanta. Game over.

💫 Stars of the Game 💫

⭐️ Derrick Rose: Rose struggled in the second half, making just one field goal after halftime, but he was yet again the reason the Knicks were in the game early, finishing the first two quarters with 16 points on 6-of-10 shooting.

The question will inevitably be asked about whether Rose is starting to tire out after averaging 38.5 minutes over the first three games. The truth is that the Knicks don’t really have a choice. Thibs switched up the timing on his rotations a bit yesterday, pulling Rose earlier in each half and then re-inserting him back with the second unit as a way to prop up the bench.

It worked well enough in the first half, but Rose seemed a bit gassed after halftime, and by the time he checked out with four to go in the third, the Knicks were already down 15. At the end of the day, if the Knicks are going to win another game, let alone this series, one of Rose’s backcourt mates is going to need to step up and give him a hand.

⭐️ ⭐️ RJ Barrett: Despite a down day, it was impossible not to be encouraged by the signs of life from RJ Barrett.

Coming into this game, if you just looked at the numbers, it would have been easy to assume that Julius Randle was struggling more than his younger counterpoint, but anyone who watched RJ when he’s had it going this season knew that wasn’t the case. Barrett wasn’t asserting himself on either end of the court like we know he can, and perhaps with the exception of a few moments, it was tough to shake the feeling that he was hurting more than helping.

That wasn’t the case yesterday:

Barrett finished with 21 points on 8-of-15 shooting after another slow start, along with six boards, four dimes and a couple steals. Perhaps most importantly, he drained a few threes after a rough shooting start to the series, including one that didn’t count because it left his fingertips barely after the first quarter buzzer.

If there’s a world where New York comes back from 3-1 down, you’d have to think it’s because RJ has finally gotten comfortable in his first postseason as a pro.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Taj Gibson: There are half a dozen outstanding defensive plays that I could clip here, all of which show how sometimes a team’s best will only finish the game with six points, but I’ll settle on this one, if only because it led to a sweet RJ dunk at the other end:

This play got the Knicks up one with 3:19 left in the first half, and it was the last time they’d ever have the lead in the game, for the reasons detailed above.

Despite that turn of events though, it can’t be overstated how vital Gibson was yesterday, just as he has been to the spirit and soul of this team all season long. Right now, he is the best center on their roster, and I’m not sure that even needs to be accompanied by the “with Nerlens Noel hobbled” caveat.

He may not add as much as he used to, but he takes nothing off the table. It’s no accident that the Knicks have outscored the Hawks by eight points in the 105 minutes Gibson has played this series but have been outscored by 29 in the 87 minutes he hasn’t. Emotionally, he is there bedrock.

After the game, Gibson was clear in his sentiments:

Guys are optimistic. We’ve been counted out the whole year, so this is really nothing new. We’re just looking forward to the next game.

Translation: Don’t give up hope. It’s not over till it’s over.

And this series ain’t over yet.

🏀

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