Out of the frying pan, into the (hopefully not tire) fire
Assessing where were at after four fake games.
Not that anyone should put much credence in statistics from fake basketball games, but for what it’s worth, the Knicks finished the preseason as something they’d probably sign on for this year:
A slightly below-average basketball team.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks enter the real games with a negative 2.5 net rating, sporting the league’s 21st ranked offense and 16th ranked defense.
There are a few Mitch-sized caveats that come with those numbers though. For one, they played three games against likely bottom-eight teams, and the two against Washington came with Bradley Beal only seeing about half of his normal minutes. Last night, they faced a New Orleans team sans Zion, who had been dominating opponents when he was healthy.
So no, there’s not a ton of comfort in what we’ve seen so far, but then again, the smart money said this was always going to be a long process. That’s what happens when you turn over two-thirds of the roster, have 12 guys in camp with two or fewer years of NBA experience, and all of your older vets are new to the team.
With that as the backdrop, let’s go through the categories for last night’s game…
One Big Thing: RJ Barrett might already be the Knicks’ best player.
I’ve always prided myself on owning up to mistakes. I feel like it’s what separates us from the animals. When I poop on the rug, I flat out say “Mom and dad, I have pooped on the rug. My bad.”
It is with this humility that I’m already owning up to my biggest mistake of the summer: saying that RJ Barrett should come off the bench.
My reasoning was simple: I thought Barrett needed the ball in his hands to not only be successful individually but also to be a valuable contributor to the offense. I figured that alongside the four other probable starters, he wouldn’t get the rock much, and that would be a waste.
Let’s go through the ways I was wrong:
He might already be the most dangerous off-ball player on the team. We saw two beautiful cuts from Barrett last night, including this one that was timed perfectly with the moment Lonzo Ball shuffled his feet and gave Barrett the opening he needed:
With this ability, Barrett will be able to help juice an offense that’s going to be deficient on outside shooting regardless of who starts (more on this in a bit)
I didn’t account for just how good the dude is right now. I knew he was good. I just didn’t know he’d come into the year being so polished. Keep in mind, this was a player who was an utter disaster on defense throughout most of Summer League, and he’s been more than respectable on that end of the floor thus far. His driving and passing vision is also a necessity for this team to function. Simply put, they haven’t been as good when he hasn’t been out there.
The starting lineup might not be what I anticipated. Yeah…about that…
Unpopular Opinion: Wayne Ellington should be the starting two-guard.
No, he’s not part of the “core” of this team, and yes, there’s a good chance he won’t be around by the time this team actually gets good. But his shooting is absolutely necessary for any Mitch/Randle/RJ/Insert Point Guard Who Can’t Shoot Here starting unit to survive on offense. Remember: development isn’t just about getting all the kids time; it’s about making sure the minutes that kids get are quality ones.
This isn’t to say that there aren’t other good shooters on this team. Knox’s jumper looks silky smooth. Trier, despite his misses last night, was great from deep last year. Morris has been hitting everything. Even Dot is part of this conversation.
None of them bring what Ellington does to the table. He not only can move without the ball, but does so willingly, which makes him something of an anomaly on this roster. His shooting off movement is also among the best in basketball, and gives the Knicks someone defenses need to account for every second he’s on the court.
That shooting will be important, especially because…
Key Stat: 24.1%
That’s what Knick point guards are collective shooting this preseason. Holy mother of God.
That’s right: Frank, Elf and DSJ have combined to shoot 14-for-58, which is a streak that might get you benched in baseball. I mean, at least it can’t get worse. Right?
As for who starts/backs up/gets traded, Marc Berman had a piece this morning stating that a New Orleans’ source told him Elfrid Payton was all but guaranteed the starting job when he signed.
I mean…sure. This makes some sense, because really, why else would a mid-career vet come to a bad team on a one-year deal when he had other offers available. My guess is that he was promised at least “starter’s minutes,” which again should surprise no one.
Where does that leave Frank, who sat out last night? Check out my full recap of where things stand with Ntilikina from yesterday.
Made me Smile: Julius Randle, passing.
In addition to finding Barrett on the above cut, he had four other dimes last night. My goal for him this year is five assists a game, and if the preseason is any indication, he just might get there.
Randle still needs to cut down on the turnovers (four last night), but overall, as a fulcrum for the offense, Randle has been just about as expected.
Other Notes:
Marcus Morris, Taj Gibson and Frank Ntilikina all got the night off. We knew this would be the case for Taj and Frank, but Morris’ benching was a surprise. His place in the rotation is as secure as anyone’s though, so from that perspective it makes sense.
Allonzo Trier and Damyean Dotson both played. Dot was quiet in 10 minutes, while Trier was anything but, scoring 17 in 24 minutes. This came a day after Ian Begley reported that there was already grumbling about minutes coming from the Knicks locker room. Coincidence? I think not. Check out my postgame periscope for more thoughts on the Trier situation.
Mitch had four blocks and was a force when he got the ball. Let’s not forget: for all the handwringing that’s going to inevitably take place this season, if Barrett and Mitch affirm themselves as franchise cornerstones, (almost) nothing else matters. So far, so good.
Final Thought: I hope David Fizdale and Scott Perry know what they’re doing.
I could write a few thousand words to expand on this point, but then I’d have to pour myself a drink, and then another one, and probably another one after that.
It’s 9 in the morning. Even on a weekend, this feels uncouth. And I am nothing if not couth.
Let the real games begin.