Playoff Primer

With 10 games remaining, let's lay out all the possibilities.

Good morning! Did you know that the Knicks have the fourth best record and second best net rating in the NBA over their last 10 games? Today, we look at whether they can keep the vibes going this weekend, as well as what lies in store down the stretch of the regular season.

Game Night(s)

TONIGHT: Knicks at Spurs, 8:00 pm, MSG Network

TOMORROW: Thunder at Knicks, 7:00 pm, MSG Network

Injury Report: Will we get a surprise change in status before the OKC game? I’m not counting on Anunoby playing, but I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. As for Julius, he hasn’t even begun taking contact yet.

For San Antonio, Keldon Johnson missed the Spurs’ last game. The same goes for SGA, who sat out Wednesday’s loss to the Rockets.

Halftime Zoom: I’m taking tonight off, but will be doing a halftime zoom on Sunday. Here’s the link.

What to watch for: Tonight is about taking care of business against a team that has won three of six, with two close losses sprinkled in.

On Sunday, the Knicks may have the kryptonite for beating OKC, which is size. The Thunder are the fourth worst defensive rebounding team in the NBA, and in their recent throttling at the hands of the Bucks, they were out-rebounded by 20.

Playoff Race Primer

According to the playoff projection systems for both Basketball Reference and Playoff Status, your fightin’ New York Knickerbockers now have a 99 percent chance of finishing as a top-six team in the East.

If you’d have told me on the day Randle went down that they’d finish in the top six, I wouldn’t have been shocked, but if you told me they’d have a top-six seed virtually locked up with more than two weeks to go in the regular season, I’d have been floored.

Alas, here we are.

So with the playoffs a near certainty and exactly 10 games remaining on the schedule, I thought, “what better time to go through the lay of the land?”

Here’s the most interesting part, to me at least: not only is New York’s spot in the pecking order TBD, but their first round opponent is still very much up in the air. For that reason, I’m going to go through spots 2 through 8 in the East today, because each one of those seven teams could factor prominently in the Knicks’ eventual fate one way or another.

(note: I’ve bolded each team’s most important remaining game(s) on their schedule)

We start at the top, with the team that lost last night in New Orleans to make things even more interesting than they already were…

Milwaukee Bucks - 46-27, 2nd place, 1.5 G ahead of NY

*Basketball Ref. Playoff Probabilities: 73.9% chance at the 2nd seed, 18.2% 3rd, 6.2% 4th

*Playoff Status Probabilities: 81% 2nd seed, 13% 3rd, 4% 4th

(*both sets of probabilities from before last night’s loss to the Pelicans)

Schedule: @ ATL, @ WAS, vs MEM, vs TOR, vs NYK, vs BOS, vs ORL, @ OKC, @ ORL

Tankathon Remaining Strength of Schedule: 12th hardest

Injuries: None.

Last 10 Games: 5-5, -2.2 net rating (17th), 13th in offense, 25th in defense

Relevant Tiebreakers: win vs Knicks, lose to Cleveland

Even with their loss last night, and even considering the fact that the Knicks would move to within a half a game of the Bucks with a win in San Antonio tonight, I’m having trouble getting past the joke that is their next four games, and the fact that they should go, at worst, 3-1. If it’s 4-0, then it’s hard to imagine the outcome of their final matchup with the Knicks even mattering when all is said and done.

Here’s why: four more wins gets the Bucks to 50. Even if they lose to the Knicks and then drop three of their last four, that’s 51. Because of the tiebreaker, the Knicks would need to get to 52 to pass them, which would mean an 8-2 finish that includes a win in Milwaukee. That would likely require a sweep of the Bulls, and even then, they’d have to win all the games they’re “supposed” to win and go 2-2 against the Celtics, Thunder, Heat and Kings.

If the Bucks slip up in Atlanta on Saturday night though? It makes things quite a bit more interesting.

As I see it, Milwaukee’s biggest impact on New York’s playoff fate could be their remaining games with the Magic. If the Bucks play all of their guys in those two games and win both, it could help push Orlando down as far as 6th, and a possible first round date with the Knicks.