Post-Lottery Briefing
More on lottery night
Good Afternoon,
A rare day with two emails. Read Jonathan Macri’s thoughts on the lottery here. Otherwise, some more info below…
The Knicks will pick third.
There, it’s done. All of the hype and speculation leading up to the lottery and a few ping-pong balls send the whole league into a frenzy.
There was a 0.001% chance the top 4 would end up in order of New Orleans-Memphis-New York-Lakers.
Things got so crazy that Memphis was drawn TWICE! The odds of that happening were 0.4%.
Knicks were the only team who started in the top 4 and remained in the top 4. They had a 12.7% chance of landing third overall.
If the Knicks keep their pick, this will be their highest selection since Patrick Ewing in 1985.
Knicks brass plans to meet with projected third overall pick, R.J. Barrett, on Wednesday in Chicago, per Adam Zagoria.
Ewing on the third pick: "Be happy with what we have. Cherish him, help him, support him, support the team and hopefully good things will come." [Ian Begley]
Zion wanted New York?
LOTTERY IMPLICATIONS
Future 1st round picks: Dallas fell to 10th, so their top-5 protected pick goes to Atlanta, which means the Knicks will get an unprotected 2021 pick from Dallas on top of a top-10 protected 2023 pick from Dallas, as a result of the Porzingis trade.
Anthony Davis: The Athletic reports that Anthony Davis’ stance on a trade request has not changed after New Orleans won the lottery (more in a bit).
Salary Cap: A small consolation prize for dropping to 3rd is the Knicks gain $1.9 million in cap space compared to if they had won the lottery. That said, it could hurt them in Anthony Davis negotiations (more in a bit).
ANTHONY DAVIS
The buzz heading into the lottery drawing was not only about Zion Williamson; there was speculation on whether the Knicks would trade him in a package for Anthony Davis, if they won the lottery.
Shams: “I’m told if the Knicks get that #1 overall pick then they will shift their focus toward a potential deal for Anthony Davis”
Bondy: “According to sources who’ve spoken to members of the team’s front office, the Knicks are highly motivated to land Davis in a deal and envision him teaming up with Kevin Durant.”
And then Woj…
Of course, the Knicks didn’t win the lottery, but their interest in Anthony Davis is clear. The question now is how their assets match up against a team like the Lakers, who were fortunate to jump to 4th in the lottery.
Salary matching: If Knicks want to sign two max free agents AND THEN trade for Anthony Davis, falling to 3rd makes matching his salary in a trade a bit more complicated.
Anthony Davis is owed $27,093,019 in 2019-20. He also has a 15% trade kicker, which would bring his salary to $31,156,972.
Limited by 3rd pick salary: By losing $1.9 million in tradeable salary with the third pick instead of the first pick, it becomes nearly impossible for the Knicks to sign two max players and then send enough salary to meet the 125% + $100,000 rules for Davis if he executes his trade bonus.
If Davis waives his trade bonus, it’s close. The Knicks could trade Ntilikina + Dennis Smith Jr + Kevin Knox + the 3rd pick, and they would still be $81,219 short of matching the salary requirements of a trade after signing two max players. This is significant because it means the Knicks would need to add another player, such as Damyean Dotson or Mitchell Robinson, just to make the salary work. That said, the money is so close, if it comes down to it, there are avenues to perhaps have one of their max players take a little bit less.
Davis as one of the Knicks’ two max players. All of this is easily resolved if the Knicks trade for Davis into cap space and use him as their second max player to Durant. Then it simply comes down to whether their package is the most attractive offer to New Orleans.
Salary Cap Outlook
Everything you need to know about the Knicks current salary cap situation come July 1 is outlined above. You can read more about the nitty gritty details here.
Lottery Party
Thanks again for everyone who came out to our lottery party. ESPN was live from the bar, so if you were interviewed, you can find yourself looking famous below.
Thanks for reading, talk to you tomorrow!