Post-Trade Perfection

Well, not quite. But the Knicks remain undefeated with OG Anunoby.

Good morning! We have a double-edition of the KFS Newsletter for you this Monday, with a full recap of Saturday night’s win in Washington, plus a special piece from KFS’ Kris Pursiainen on why the IQ Era in New York was always likely to be a short term affair. First though, some sad news…

News & Notes

🏀 According to Fred Katz of The Athletic, the Knicks are waiving Taj Gibson. As Fred notes, Gibson’s contract was set to guarantee yesterday, so waiving him now means that his full pro-rated veteran minimum salary won’t count against the cap. Also per Katz, the move reduces the roster to 14 players, which gives the Knicks extra flexibility if they complete a trade sending out fewer players than they take back.

With Achiuwa now on the roster and Sims back healthy, the move shouldn’t come as a surprise. That said, no one should be surprised to see Gibson back on the Knicks bench at some point, even if it’s more likely to be as an assistant coach than a player.

Long live Taj.

Game 36: Knicks 121, Wizards 105

In a New York minute…

With a 15-point lead after the first and a 26-point advantage midway through the second, this game started out about as you would have expected, with the Knicks forcing 14 first half turnovers and scoring 16 fast break points before halftime. It was coming so easy for New York that they started to lose focus, and over a five-minute stretch starting late in the second and into the third quarter, they gave up a 24-5 run. After a few minutes of trading buckets and with the lead down to five, Josh Hart entered the game and helped right the ship, and the margin was back up to 20 early in the fourth. The Wiz made one final push but never got it down to single digits, and Thibs was able to empty the bench as the Knicks’ winning streak stretched to four games.

Three Things

1. Don’t play with your food. There’s two ways to look at this win. Glass half empty, the Knicks let an vastly inferior opponent back into a game they had no business getting back into. Glass half full, they blew out the Wizards twice in the same game on the second night of a back to back.

Either way, a win is a win, and at no point did this truly feel in danger of being a loss.

Analyzing this team will probably require separating the season into “pre-trade” and “post-trade,” but on the whole, the Knicks (9th in net rating themselves) are now 17-4 against teams outside the top-10 in average point differential. They tend to take care of business against those they should.

Also on the plus side: since the trade, they’ve doubled their win total against teams in the top 10 with victories over Minnesota and Philly.

Moving forward, none of the next eight games come against top-10 net rating teams, with Houston (currently 11th) and Orlando (12th) coming the closest. Those teams, not to mention the Mavs, Grizzlies and certainly the new look Raptors, won’t give New York the luxury of messing around like they did in Washington, so hopefully their early third quarter malaise was simply playing down to the sub-basement level competition.

2. Circle of trust. You’re either in or you’re out.

We know Thibs has his guys. He always has. Post-trade, that’s become more apparent than ever.

Last night, as things began to get away from them in the third quarter, Thibodeau made exactly one substitution: Josh Hart for OG Anunoby. The other four starters played the entire third, but even after the Knicks righted the ship, both Hartenstein and Randle remained on the court to start the fourth. Anunoby came in for Julius at the 10:44 mark, but I-Hart remained, and when he finally needed a breather after playing nearly 17 consecutive minutes to start the second half, it was Randle, not Precious Achiuwa, who entered the game as a small ball five. That alignment lasted all of 65 seconds as Washington cut the lead to 10, and back came Hartenstein to help close the door.

The end result was five players playing over 30 minutes, with I-Hart topping the list at 39, followed by Julius at 38, Jalen at 35, Hart at 32 and OG at 31.

In a sense, Hartenstein is the new Immanuel Quickley: a player who regularly saw 10-minute stints as a backup but who is now pushing 40 minutes with the normal starter out (IQ averaged 38.6 minutes as a starter last season) and no backup option the coach trusts. Maybe Achiuwa gets there, but for now, he’s on the outside looking in.

It begs the question of whether the front office will be compelled to make more deals before the deadline, either for a more reliable backup center option, another playmaker off the bench, or both.

3. Game changer. For those who regularly watch the KFS Postgame show, you may recall a moment in late December when there was talk about switching up the starting five in light of their defensive issues, and GD Nation commented that perhaps we were jumping the gun. Me being the fiery Italian that I am, I went scorched earth and said (in less polite terms) that we’d seen more than enough evidence to know that the JB-DDV-RJ-Ju-Hartenstein first five was no longer tenable. In retrospect, it’s fair to wonder whether that group would have stabilized over time, and GD’s words were wiser than I gave him credit for.

Here’s what I do know:

1. The front office had similar doubts about the sustainability of a starting lineup without a single premium perimeter defender (hence, the trade), and…

2. The move has absolutely worked.

Through nearly 300 possessions, lineups featuring OG Anunoby have been gangbusters, outscoring teams by an average of 31.5 points per 100 possessions according to Cleaning the Glass. They’ve been equally dominant on offense and defense, and while an unsustainable 57.8 effective field goal percentage during those OG minutes is bound to regress and bring their offensive rating down with it, I see no reason to doubt that the defense is very, very real.

Anunoby-led lineups have been otherworldly on the boards and at forcing turnovers, two areas that should sustain. Teams will likely start making more shots against these units (opponents currently have a 46.5 eFG% , which is as unsustainable as New York’s plus shooting), but the OG groups have also been fouling at an incredibly high rate (24.8 percent; 11th percentile league-wide), so even if opposing teams start hitting more shots, the Knicks likely won’t foul as much either.

Looking at the specific lineups Anunoby has been a part of, none have the sort of sample size that makes the data #meaningful, but it’s still interesting to see how he’s being deployed:

While the starting five places more emphasis on offense, Thibs also seems to love the defensive pairing of OG with Josh Hart, and with good reason. In 130 non-garbage time possessions together, those two are giving up just 84.1 points per 100 possessions (while scoring at an unsustainable but still fun 135.4/100 clip).

How Thibodeau utilizes his new toy (including possibly more minutes with Randle and Anunoby at the 4/5) will be fascinating to watch, but so far, so good, even if OG’s individual stats haven’t jumped off the page.

Play of the Day

The Deuce putback dunk to end the first quarter is the winner if we’re going by aesthetics and excitement, but it loses out here to a basket that had a far more significant impact on the outcome of the game:

With the lead down to five midway through the third, the Wizards were really starting to believe they could win. Any closer, and this could have been a very different ball game down the stretch.

So it was interesting that Julius called his own number here, hitting his third 3-pointer of the game, putting the Knicks up eight. They’d remain up by at least that many for the rest of the game.

After a seven-week stretch where Randle hit three 3-pointers in a game just once and averaged only 1.2 makes on 4.2 long range attempts a night, Randle has now taken 24 threes in the four games since the trade, including eight last night. He’s only hit a third of those attempts, but still, it’s good to see him feeling more comfortable again with these looks. It’s an important part of his repertoire that shouldn’t be abandoned altogether as opponents get more and more creative trying to take away his dominant interior game.

💫 Stars of the Game 💫

⭐️ Isaiah Hartenstein: Another 19 rebounds to go with eight points, four steals, two blocks and two dimes. Ho hum. Thibs is now more reliant on I-Hart than he is his whiteboard and dry erase markers (and with good reason).

⭐️ ⭐️ Julius Randle

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Jalen Brunson

Truly a toss up between New York’s top two, who each topped 30 points for the second consecutive game after not having done so all season previously. Julius (39 points, 13-for-23 shooting, 10-for-13 at the line, seven boards, five assists, two turnovers) has clearly benefited from the increased spacing since the trade, but he’s also looking more engaged on the defensive end than we’ve seen all season.

As for Brunson (10-for-18, 9-for-9 at the line, eight assists, two turnovers), he is back to firing away from long range without any hesitation whatsoever after a stretch of relative hesitancy:

• Last five games: 39.5 percent on 8.6 3PA/G

• Previous seven games: 35.5 percent on 4.4 3PA/G

Two of his four threes last night came as the game got a wee bit too close for comfort in the fourth, with the Wizards inching back to within 10. After back to back Brunson triples, New York could finally rest easy.

Tip-Ins…

🏀 Quentin Grimes only played 15 minutes, but it was a strong follow up effort to his Philly outburst. Again looking confident with the rock, Grimes went 2-for-4 from deep. Deuce McBride also had a nice outing, and while the shot wasn’t falling (2-of-6 overall, 1-for-2 on threes), he did dish five assists in 15 minutes.

🏀 It feels like OG Anunoby is still finding his way on offense. He took just seven field goal attempts last night after averaging just over 10 a night in his first three games. He takes no bad shots, and is still probably overpassing a bit, but as many have said, his tepid offensive start in New York is nothing compared to the overall impact he’s had, especially when his overall efficiency (56.4 eFG%) is so solid.

🏀 It was staggering to see Donte DiVincenzo look mortal from deep last night, as he hit “only” two of his seven attempts from deep.

Up Next…

The Knicks are off tonight but host Portland on Tuesday. The Blazers are 5-14 away from home, and last night’s win in Brooklyn was their first road victory since November.

Final Thought

I like this team.

That’s it. That’s the tweet.

And now, a special piece from Knicks Film School’s own (and soon to be Fordham alum) Kris Pursiainen, who discusses the situation ultimately leading to Immanuel Quickley (and RJ Barrett) ending up north of the border…

Bending and Breaking

by Kris Pursiainen

Stubbornness has accompanied Tom Thibodeau throughout his career. It has always been a part of his technique.

His exit from Chicago came after years of considerable success arguably due to his unwillingness to compromise during his many disagreements with the front office.

In Minnesota, he was his own front office. Thibodeau may have learned there that having someone around to bend his convictions might be as necessary as it was annoying.

Tom Thibodeau’s idiosyncrasies are loveable. He doesn’t spend any time trying to endear himself to his team’s fanbase. His dry humor, hard work, and the frozen pizzas that accompany him as he watches each 48-minute product get the job done.

He may have learned to be that way from Bill Musselman, his first mentor. We may never know where Musselman picked it up himself.

But Tom Thibodeau ultimately sees basketball like math: there is a correct way to approach it. There is a way to do things that is best. It takes painstaking work to achieve the meticulousness of a Thibodeau team.

Every month, every game, every fourth quarter: Thibodeau’s teams will bend. Starters in, down 11 with two minutes to go, trying to reduce the deficit to single digits. Playing 48 minutes of Thibodeau basketball.

They'll bend. But they won’t break.

Immanuel Quickley’s tenure in New York is a compelling example of Thibodeau’s limits.

Thibodeau is the last coach one would expect to be armed with arguably the best analytical department in the NBA, MLB, NFL, or NHL. That’s why it’s perfect for him. His obsession with details and a veteran eye for talent paired with an abundance of data. 

Thibodeau has bent in this regard. The analytics have become a huge part of his program during his tenure with the Knicks. The team has targeted proficient pull-up shooters throughout Leon Rose’s entire tenure. Thibodeau uses simple-yet-statistical goals to drive his players to play his way every night. 

In some ways, Quickley’s tenure as a Knick is a testament to Thibodeau’s newfound flexibility; he excelled from behind the Knicks’ newly installed 4-point-line at their Tarrytown practice facility. Thibodeau knew it was a good shot, so it became one he allowed Quickley to take in games. He knew Quickley could make them. Thibodeau accepted new data: that the four-point shot was a viable option for Quickley.

The thing about bending is that eventually you spring back.

Seven games into the 2022-23 season, Thibodeau’s first substitution of the game changed from Immanuel Quickley to Derrick Rose. When asked if the opponent, the Atlanta Hawks, or any other factors played into the decision, Thibodeau said no. It was just something they thought would be beneficial.

Derrick Rose was removed entirely from the Knicks rotation on December 4th; Immanuel Quickley finished top-3 in the Sixth Man of the Year race in that same season. 

Over October and November, Quickley averaged 22.4 minutes per game. Over the next two months, he averaged 31.5. It seemed that Thibodeau had recognized Quickley’s value and was translating it to time on the court. 

On February 5, 2022, the Knicks lost in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers. Quickley played five minutes of that game’s 53. Games like these were not uncommon. 

After the All-Star break, Quickley averaged 32.2 minutes per game but still did not start games for the Knicks. Despite going to Quickley numerous times to close games, the guard never seemed to be in legitimate consideration for a larger role on Thibodeau’s team.

Quickley’s minutes and role on the team seemed to have a ceiling on them.

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This all goes back to how Quickley became a Knick in the first place - and what Thibodeau thought of him at the time.

Tom Thibodeau was a huge proponent of drafting both Quentin Grimes and Miles McBride. Both are still Knicks. McBride signed a three-year, 13-million-dollar extension in the wake of the trade and both are benefitting nightly from the additional opportunity. 

Coming out of Kentucky, Immanuel Quickley was a small guard that didn’t profile as the defensive bulldog that someone like McBride did. He was William Wesley’s consolation prize after the team’s efforts to move up in the first round and snag Tyrese Maxey with their second selection fell short. Quickley was a 2-guard from Kentucky who had to be locked out of the gym by assistants for wanting to practice more than they deemed healthy. 

He was perfect for Thibodeau and perfect for Wesley. That made him perfect for Rose and the Knicks: a young shooter and defender who could contribute early and potentially grow into more later.

Thibodeau was never truly “in,” though, dooming what seemed like a perfect fit from the start.

Sources familiar with the situation informed me during Quickley’s tenure in New York that, at first, the 25th overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft was not supposed to have played during his rookie season. Adding to that, the team having an extra guard in Austin Rivers makes a lot more sense when you realize that he was never an extra. 

Quickley wasn’t supposed to play as a rookie. 

When pressed for more, sources wouldn’t confirm anything besides that it was Thibodeau’s wish for Quickley to be sent to Westchester for his first season, just as the Knicks would later do with McBride. Veterans would play and Quickley would develop, getting reps that Thibodeau couldn’t afford him on NBA hardwood. 

Immanuel Quickley didn’t play a single minute in the first preseason game of 2020, because Tom Thibodeau treats preseason as a dress rehearsal for the regular season.

Austin Rivers was ruled out for the team’s second preseason game, which led way for Thibodeau to mention pregame that he would try to play Immanuel Quickley. 

Quickley saw the floor for nine minutes that night. Two points, two rebounds, and one assist were all it took for the Knicks to want to find out more about how good of an NBA player Immanuel Quickley could be.

25 minutes in the next game against Cleveland. Nine points, seven assists, and one million steals. He had taken the hearts of every Knick fan with him into the tunnels.

It may have been decided right then. Maybe it was after his 22-point performance in the preseason finale. But if the Knicks wanted to honestly say they were playing their best guys, Immanuel Quickley could not be playing home games in Westchester. Austin Rivers was unceremoniously traded away well ahead of the deadline.

Quickley always came off the bench, because that was the role he was best in as a rookie. He was compared to Lou Williams and other short, skilled, scoring guards who didn’t bring defense to the table (love you, Lou). He was settled into a shoebox. Regardless of the extent to which he had outgrown it, it would always contain him.

Immanuel Quickley grew impressively as a player, in every regard from providing a high-quality defensive floor to having a triple-double in the NBA despite never having one in college. Quickley told reporters after that game he was never a good enough passer to have a triple-double. Not anymore. 

Quickley being best off of the bench was a narrative that remained true, until it didn’t. Good players should play a lot. Thibodeau bent but never broke. Quickley almost always excelled as a starter. He certainly always excelled regardless of who else was on the court with him. Statistics and impact metrics galore show this. 

These were metrics that Thibodeau himself claimed were of great importance to him, such as net rating. It didn’t matter. It never did. It wasn’t going to happen. He wouldn’t break.

Ultimately, Thibodeau never truly trusted Brunson and Quickley as the team’s backcourt duo in crunch time. He turned to it several times to win games but would not start them together. New York’s front office had to make a decision of some kind. 

The 2023-24 Knicks are 21-15 through their first 36 games and no longer employ Immanuel Quickley or RJ Barrett. They do employ a British All-Defensive Wing. No, not Luol Deng. 

Tom Thibodeau is a great basketball coach in part because he bends but never breaks. He’s helping lead the Knicks to heights they haven’t sniffed in decades. 

The thing is that Immanuel Quickley is a great basketball player, but he was never going to succeed under Tom Thibodeau. 

It doesn’t mean he won’t succeed elsewhere. It means that for members of the Knick faithful, going from a perennial lock to win 25 games or fewer to a perennial playoff team comes at a cost. The hybrid approach of acquiring players the analytics and pro scouting departments approve of that fit into Thibodeau’s scheme has gotten the team far. 

Two things can be true:

The Knicks will continue to go far. Immanuel Quickley, from far away, will continue to get better. 

A third thing can also be true: the Knicks will likely regret trading Quickley one day - but it doesn’t matter. They’re chasing champagne problems: being good enough where fans’ greatest worry is if the team will be eliminated in the Conference Finals or the NBA Finals, not which members of the team before it was a contender are still around. 

Quickley will be great. The Knicks will be great. Fans of each one can take solace in both.

Kris Pursiainen is a senior at Fordham University covering basketball at every level. He also hosts the “All Things NBA” podcast. You can (and should) follow him on Twitter here.

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“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”