Progress?
That's a funny word for an 83-point night.
Before we get to last night’s game, neither the math teacher nor the lawyer in me can let something go regarding David Fizdale’s reasoning about bringing Frank Ntilikina off the bench last night, which was to keep him out of foul trouble. If logic isn’t your thing, please skip ahead.
Have you ever heard of the Monte Hall problem? It’s a probability experiment loosely based on the old game show of the same name. Here’s how it goes:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
It’s mathematically proven that the answer is yes. There are a few explanations as to why, but the simplest one boils it down to this: there is more information about doors 2 and 3 that was not available at the beginning of the game, when door 1 was chosen by the player.
To this day, people refuse to believe this, just as a certain Knicks beat reporter refused to believe David Fizdale’s explanation for bringing Frank Ntilikina off the bench yesterday:
In fairness, it wasn’t just Berman. Many people agreed, arguing that there would have been no difference between Ntilikina starting the game and drawing two quick fouls versus checking in at the five or seven minute mark and picking up two quick fouls then. On its face, there isn’t. In such a situation, the Knicks would have been roughly equally screwed either way.
Except just like the Monte Hall problem, in the scenario where Ntilikina comes off the bench, the Knicks would (and did) have more information that was unavailable to them at the beginning of the game: namely, that Frank wouldn’t pick up a foul in the first X minutes of action because you can’t pick up a foul from the bench. This doesn’t mean the door you - or Fiz - picked is the correct one; it just means you’ve given yourself the best chance of being correct.
Of course, it is possible (and maybe, given how things have gone for Frank over the last year, even likely) that Fiz has ulterior motives for refusing to start Ntilikina. I’ll get to what those might be in a bit. You could also argue that the Knicks would have been better served taking the risk and starting Frank last night given how well he played coming out of the gate. That much will be up for debate, especially since he’ll still be the only true point guard available for Friday night.
Regardless, remember friends: there are enough bad guys in the world as it is. Logic is your friend.
Let’s get to the categories:
One Big Thing:
The Knicks are really going to struggle if they can’t hit open shots.
In other news, water is wet, the sky is blue, and somewhere, right now, Fizdale is thinking about new and exciting ways to draw up iso plays to get Marcus Morris going.
Here’s the thing…while the above is true for every NBA team, it’s especially true for one whose best offense is having RJ Barrett or Julius Randle draw double teams and kick out to open shooters. In case you haven’t noticed, Fizdale’s offense isn’t predicated on a bunch of smart, savvy passers that move with and without the ball. They’ve built this team like that by design in order to (I think) attract today’s “modern” star: one who wants their individual brilliance to get the credit for wins, not the system.
This didn’t work out so well last summer. We’ll see if it fares better in the future. Point is, while the offense occasionally features a lot of movement (we saw a good bit of it from the backups in the second quarter last night), this isn’t their bread and butter.
Instead, they want to be like the Rockets. This is a lot easier when you have James Harden and some of the best shooters alive, as Houston’s 159-point effort last night goes to show.
To his credit, Julius Randle played the point forward role pretty damn well last night, taking only 13 shots and finishing with seven dimes compared to only three turnovers. He was having easily his best game as a Knick, at least through three quarters, before (as Fiz pointed out postgame) him and his teammates stopped trusting and held onto the ball.
(H/t to the aforementioned Berman for his nugget in today’s story that Fiz yelled “Stop trying to be a hero” after one particular ill-advised late-game possession. He apparently did the same to Bobby Portis once as well)
As for the other half of Morey-Ball, 37.8 percent of the Knicks shots last night were from deep, which would rank 10th in the league. It’s a stark improvement from where they were heading into last night: 28.1 percent, which was 28th in the league according to Cleaning the Glass.
The only problem is they couldn’t hit anything, going only 7-of-31 from deep. If you want a formula for how to score 83 points on a given night in the NBA, that stat line versus the third best defense in the league is a great place to start.
It doesn’t mean there wasn’t progress. The Knicks assisted on 61 percent of their made field goals last night, which is easily their season high and 10 points greater than their average. Until the fourth quarter when Morris, Portis and Randle took turns taking some not-so-great shots, the offense was operating in a way you could live with (other than the whole “shots not going in” part. Details, details…)
But this will be life for the Knicks in 2019-20 as one of the few teams in the league without a true off the dribble deep threat that can also penetrate at will.
Well…they do kind of have one of those guys, but he didn’t play last night, which leads us to…
Unpopular Opinion
I’m OK with Allonzo Trier not seeing time
Despite the Knicks offensive woes last night, I’m happy David Fizdale resisted the urge to put in his resident microwave, Iso Zo.
The reason is simple: for the first time all season, the Knicks were moving the ball in a consistent, purposeful way. Was it working? Not really, but this is when you have to ask the question of what’s more important: process or results?
This team needs wins desperately, just to keep things somewhat positive around the organization until these pieces really start to gel, but even more than that, they need an identity. Guys need to know that if they play the way the coach is asking, there will be a payoff, either in the form of individual numbers, team success, or hopefully, both.
There’s a world where Allonzo Trier fits into that picture. I just don’t think we’re there yet. For my money, the team’s foundation is still too fragile in this early going to give him the keys and abandon better laid plans.
We’ll see how long Fiz can resist this urge.
Modest Proposal
More of this, please:
Much has already been made of the issues that a Julius/Mitch pairing will have on offense. Count me as hopeful. As I wrote over the summer, if they improve in a few key areas, there’s no reason they can’t be their own version of Blake and Dre in Detroit. That pairing managed to lead the Pistons to an 113.4 offensive rating when they shared the court last season, and it was largely on plays like the one above.
Of course, it helps to have shooting on the court so defenders aren’t cheating off the arc. Hopefully that improves with time. Even so, the Knicks should try to implement at least a few Randle-to-Robinson lobs each game right now. If and when this team gets good, it’s going to have to be a staple play in their offense.
(BTW, I saw a few complaints on Twitter about the fact that Robinson only played 19 minutes. I hear you. He’s a core piece and even if he was struggling guarding Vooch, you want him to get those reps.
That said, the guy in his place was coming off the best game of his career. With the Magic locking in on defense towards the end of the game, those early lobs were nowhere to be found, and Portis’ superior screen setting and shooting were the way to go.
This is one of those times - and it won’t be the last - where winning and development were at odds. I’m planning on judging on a case by case basis. For last night at least, I’m ok with what we saw).
Key Stat
11
That was how many turnovers the Knicks had last night after averaging 20.5 over the first four games of the year.
#Progress.
Made Me Smile
I mean…do you even have to ask?
He didn’t hit any shots after the first quarter, but his looks were confident and his form seems fine.
You either believe those shots will start to drop or you don’t. Either way, his impact in a small sample size this year can’t be denied. The Knicks have a 97.2 defensive rating (a team high among guys who have seen regular minutes) and a 58.8 assist rate when Frank is on the court. Neither number is an accident.
(Oh, and the real reason I think Fiz is probably hesitant to start Frank? My guess: he’s set on a starting unit that features a guard who can get into the paint, and doesn’t want to divert from this long term vision. Again: just my guess.)
Who Let the Dawgs Out?
Marcus Morris
No, this isn’t a compliment. In New York, we take turns putting guys in the doghouse. Fiz seems like he’ll be a permanent resident there all season, but for the moment at least, his starting small forward is joining him.
I spoke to trainer David Zenon on the pod last night and pitched my theory that Morris should be coming off the bench to try and get some more speed and shooting into the starting lineup, and he quickly shot it down. His simple reminder: Morris is good, and brings a certain mentality to this team that it desperately needs.
Here’s why he might be right: Morris - a career 47 percent shooter from 2-point range and a master of the midrange - is not going to shoot 33 percent all season, which is what he’s currently at. He will get better.
Does he need to pass it, like…occasionally? Yes. Yes he does. But five games probably isn’t enough to bury the guy.
Final Thought
The Knicks, who had the 26th ranked defense in the league last year, just held a playoff team (albeit one struggling on offense) to 95 points on the road. They now rank 17th in defensive efficiency on the season. They’re doing a decent job at limiting opponents’ shooting frequency at the rim (34.9 percent of the time, 12th in the league) and from three (36.8, 19th), at least in comparison to last year.
It’s early, but there are some signs that all the usual preseason rhetoric about defense wasn’t completely baseless this year.
Must Listen
New podcast alert:
The conversation with David Zenon, who has spent time training Mitchell Robinson and has also known RJ Barrett since before he was drafted, is particularly illuminating. He’s had a view from the inside, and seems to think things are headed in the right direction.
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
RJ Barrett is now the odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year. He had a rough one last night, which only proves that he’s human. Barely.
Amar’s Stoudemire wants to keep playing basketball, and continue getting paid for the right to do so. He’s found a willing partner in China.
Lastly, here’s the always entertaining recap from Matthew Miranda at P&T.
That’s it! Knicks next play Friday night in Boston.