Re-Processing
Philly has a new POBO who loves to dabble in the trade machine. Here's what Daryl Morey's hire could mean for the Knicks.
News & Notes
Busy news day in the Association…
The NBPA President Michele Roberts formally vocalized the murmurings we’ve heard from several players over the last few days, which is that they’re not a fan of a season restart which would have games begin on December 22.
There are a few issues here. Most immediate is tomorrow’s deadline for either side to terminate the current collective bargaining agreement, but that can be pushed back, and if I had to guess, certainly will, maybe by the time you read this.
The union also wants to have more time before next season begins, but as is the case with everything in this world, the real issue is the money. The union has an opportunity to negotiate player escrow and total revenue, and complaining about a quicker start date where the players will be taking additional health risks isn’t a bad opening salvo. According to Chris Haynes, the players favor an MLK Day restart.
In related news, according to Woj and Zach Lowe, NBA revenues dropped 10 percent last season, which is somewhat remarkable when you think about what they faced. On the downside, that number could increase to 40 percent next season depending on a few factors, most notably how quickly and fully arenas can be filled.
Nonetheless, there seems to be a tentative agreement in place to keep next season’s salary cap at $109 million and the luxury tax at $132, which is where they stood this season.
I hinted at this on Monday, but according to Kevin O’Connor, the league is planning on having “MLB style series” to help reduce travel next season. I’d heard the same term used and still assume that means two games in a row against the same team in the same arena, but perhaps it could be more.
One other note on next year: the NBA is likely to release the schedule in halves for increased flexibility.
According to Marc Berman, Kira Lewis had dinner with Tom Thibodeau, Scott Perry and William Wesley in Miami on Monday night. As Jonathan Wasserman reported earlier in the day, Lewis worked out for the Knicks (they have 10 total workouts they can administer based on this year’s rules). Berman, as he has before, implied that Lewis would ideally be a trade-down candidate, with Killian Hayes still perceived as the preference of the two.
Ian Begley reported that the Hornets recently worked out James Wiseman. He ain’t getting past 3.
Stephen Silas will be the next head coach of the Houston Rockets, with several former head coaches, including former Knicks coach Jeff Hornacek, in consideration for his staff.
The Miller family sold the Jazz to billionaire Ryan Smith for $1.6 billion, a price that includes some other assets, including the arena the Jazz play in.
Last but certainly not least, the Sixers are making Daryl Morey their new President of Basketball Operations while also retaining (and possibly extending, according to some reports) GM Elton Brand. Much more on this below.
“Sources Say…”
I’ve now heard from multiple sources in the last few days that Killian Hayes is a strong possibility to be taken by the Pistons at 7. Conversely, I interviewed Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman last night for the KFS Pod (episode will be dropping tomorrow), and he had a number of juicy tidbits, one of which is that he heard Patrick Williams’ name in connection to Detroit, which is where I was leaning as the top-7 team who was looking at Pat Will prior to this Killian Hayes banter.
The lesson, as always: everyone lies ahead of the draft.
Read This:
Jeremy Cohen had some well thought out ideas (as he always does) for the Strickland on the possible salary dump market that awaits the Knicks in a few weeks.
Watch This:
Ian Begley was kind enough to answer my question about whether no or fewer fans next season will influence how Leon Rose builds this team. Plus, lots more good stuff, as is the case on every episode of the Putback. Check it out!
Re-Processing
Daryl Morey, welcome to Philly.
None of us should be shocked by the news itself, although the immediacy of its occurrence was a bit staggering. If anything, this is a signal from an ownership group with a historically quick trigger finger that they have no intention of wasting away another season in relative mediocrity. The goal will be a championship, and the timeframe will be now.
Other than that, I’d be careful about reading too much into the hiring of Morey in terms of how Philly will operate. Daryl was always very open about being one to read and react to the hand he was dealt, and I wouldn’t expect that mindset to change much.
For example: Morey has openly sung the praises of tanking in the past simply because it represented the highest probability of getting stars - a philosophy his former Executive VP Sam Hinke brought with him to Philadelphia. That was his original intention in Houston, but once he got James Harden and realized he had an MVP candidate on his hands, he diverted course.
Similarly, while Morey clearly understands the math of 3 > 2 and the inefficiency of shooting from certain areas on the court, his super-small, Beard-centric style offense in Houston was the result of the Rockets’ personnel more than anything else. In other words, don’t expect him to trade Joel Embiid just because he’s very large or to move Ben Simmons because he doesn’t shoot from outside of 10 feet.
This gets us to the sole tenet of Morey’s team-building philosophy: obtaining stars. Get them in any shape or size, get them for any cost…just get them. He’s never made much of an effort to hide this, which is probably why the Philly job was so appealing to him. They’re one of the few teams in the league that has two players with perennial All-NBA potential, and certainly the only one with an open front office job of prominence.
With all this as the backdrop, let’s look at the top questions that Morey’s hire raises where the Knicks are concerned:
Will Simmons or Embiid be on the open market anytime soon?
No. This answer was already no before Morey was hired, and will only decrease in probability.
This isn’t to say one of them won’t get traded, but it will only be for another star, which the Knicks don’t currently have. Without Morey, I could have seen a scenario where the Sixers had a dreadful campaign and moved one of the big two for several pieces next summer.
Now? It’s hard to see the Knicks being in play for either player until they get a big dog themselves, but let’s take it one step at a time.
How does this alter the Chris Paul trade market?
It makes the Sixers a legit suitor.
In Morey’s opinion, the only thing better than one star is two, and the only thing better than two stars is three. That’s why he was heavily in pursuit of Carmelo Anthony from the Knicks three years ago and why he pined for Jimmy Butler more recently.
Morey is smart enough to see Tobias Harris for what he is: a wonderful (if exorbitantly overpaid) role player, but by no means a star. Paul, on the other hand, is still very much a Capital-S Star, and he just so happens to be available. I’ve said all along that the Bucks would be nuts not to trade for Paul given their urgency to win now and keep Giannis in Milwaukee. I’d bet on Morey intervening to prevent that from happening, especially given how much he wanted Paul in Houston to begin with, with Harden and Tilman Fertitta being the ones who expedited his exit.
Paul would put everyone in their place on the Philly roster, and has experience sharing the ball-handling duties over the last three years. We also know how much Embiid loves him some Jimmy Buckets, so perhaps Paul’s personality wouldn’t rub off on him poorly as it has with some others.
For the Knicks, this just lessens the chances CP3 finishes up the back nine of his career in New York. Oh well.
Well isn’t Daryl going to make some kind of trade?
I’d guess he’ll try.
I’ve said before that I don’t think the Tobias Harris contract is tradable. $150 million over four years for a guy who tops out as maybe a top-30 player is…not ideal.
Al Horford is a different story though. I’ve tossed around a fake Horford trade or two already - I believe one where the Knicks ended up with Horford and other stuff, with Philly getting Buddy Hield, generated some attention - but in general I think it’s a bit far fetched. As Jeremy Cohen brought up in his excellent piece yesterday for The Strickland, teams don’t often want to pay the price that a large salary dump will cost, which is why those sorts of trades usually involve bad money for bad money, with the taker of the less bad money giving up a small asset for the right to unload the really bad money.
And Horford is, in no uncertain terms, bad money. That said, I still think there’s a possibility New York could be in on him, for a few reasons:
Even though he’s past his prime, he’d make them immediately better
His veteran presence (not to mention his defensive acumen) would be welcomed by Thibs, and perhaps most importantly…
He’s on more of a two-and-a-half year deal than a three-year one, with the final season only guaranteed for $14.5 million. If we project a $109 million cap this season, $115 next season, and (conservatively) a $120 million cap in 2022-23, that means in two years, you’re essentially looking at moving an expiring contract that takes up 12 percent of the cap, or simply stretching the cap hit for $4.8 million per year over three years.
The latter isn’t ideal and the former would almost certainly cost a pick, but remember: the Knicks would only be forced to do such a thing in the event that a star player was ready to sign. These are first world problems that would be wonderful to have. For right now, the Knicks simply need to worry about getting decent and becoming a desirable destination.
The combo of Mitch and Al isn’t perfect but it also isn’t the death knell some would make it out to be. Horford is a better floor spacer than Julius Randle (who presumably would be dealt in any trade bringing back the former Celtic), he’s world’s better on defense, and with additional spacing at the 1 & 3, him and Robinson could function just fine together for 10 minutes a game. That’s all they’d be playing together, given that neither is more than a 30-minute guy at this point in their respective careers.
The question then becomes how the Knicks could get involved, as they don’t have a star to send back to Philly.
Here’s a three-way deal involving Oklahoma City that could work once the new league year hits:
New York gets: Al Horford, Shake Milton, New York’s 2021 2nd and Philly’s 2021 1st (NY has option to defer to 2022)
Philadelphia gets: Chris Paul
Oklahoma City gets: Julius Randle, Mike Scott, Zhaire Smith and the 21st pick
Before you throw your red stapler at my head (I’m sorry), just hear me out as to why, even though this might not be any great shakes (I’m so sorry), it also isn’t paradise lost for New York (I’m sooooo so sorry).
They wind up with the wonderfully named Shake Milton - a serviceable starting point guard for this year and long term high end backup - who has three years left at a dirt cheap number. They also get their own second back next season (spoiler alert: it’s going to be pretty good) and an extra 2021 first.
And of course, they get Horford. They’d also still have over $30 million to spend this summer thanks to unloading Randle, possibly to take on another bad salary, or just to try and improve the roster through free agency. I’d pull the trigger.
I say Philly also does this trade in a heartbeat, with the only question being whether the Thunder say yes. I think that would depend on what Milwaukee offers for Paul (or some dark horse like Phoenix, I suppose), or more likely, whether Sam Presti would simply rather take on Horford and net all the goodies for himself. Only he can answer that question.
The other option for Philly would seem to be John Wall, but that’s a lot dicier. For one, maybe Washington isn’t ready to treat Wall like a sunk cost. They seem intent on trying to build around Beal, and banking on Wall rebounding would seem like the best chance of that happening. If they did move him to Philly, they also might want to simply take on Horford themselves (and that’s if Philly even wanted to take on another non-shooter, which I doubt).
With those caveats, for shits & giggles…
New York gets: Al Horford, Shake Milton, New York’s 2021 2nd and Philly’s 2021 1st (NY has option to defer to 2022)
Philadelphia gets: John Wall
Washington gets: Julius Randle, Mike Scott
The Wizards would really have to value cap space here, and Philly would have to ignore…all modern spacing concepts. Let’s forget I ever mentioned this.
(Oh, and for anyone out there looking at Wall as a make up for not taking on Chris Paul last summer, I’m not sure the situations are all that similar. For one, as I mentioned above, I don’t know what Washington gets by ponying up a bunch of draft assets to unload Wall in an offseason where there’s no good free agents to sign. Wall’s body holding up is also a huge question mark, and he doesn’t possess anything close to Paul’s almost mystical positive effect on the teams he plays for.)
One more fake trade for good measure:
New York gets: Al Horford, Zhaire Smith, the 21st pick and Philly’s 2021 1st (NY has option to defer to 2022)
Philadelphia gets: Mike Conley
Utah gets: Julius Randle, Shake Milton and Reggie Bullock
Utah saves a few bucks (although with yesterday’s announced sale of the team, I’m not sure how much that matters) and arguably gets better, Philly turns Al into Conley, and the Knicks get a future first, a flier on an interesting young player and an extra selection next month. It’s a hefty bill for the Sixers though, and Utah might not be ready to pull the plug on Conley yet, so who knows.
Point is, I think Morey will be aggressive in trying to flip Horford into something he feels can help them win ASAP. The Knicks are one of the few teams able to absorb that salary and send out an expiring contract (Randle) to make the deal more palatable to whatever third party is involved. With other cap teams seemingly trying to spend in free agency or take on better expensive players via trade, this might be as golden an opportunity as Leon Rose is going to get this summer.
A year ago, we all scoffed at the notion of a Chris Paul trade, and now most of us wish the team had sung a different tune. Horford isn’t Paul, but he’s also not the pariah some make him out to be.
If Morey comes calling, I’d at least pick up the phone.
That’s it for today…see you tomorrow for the Friday edition! #BlackLivesMatter #VOTE