Reading the Tea Leaves

A look at the top 5 remaining options for New York's 13th roster spot, plus a closer look at some recent news and rumors.

Good morning! Summer League starts later this week, with New York’s first game tipping off at 6pm on Friday. We have much business to tend to before then, so let’s not waste any time…

Reading the Tea Leaves

With the signings of Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele and the hiring of Mike Brown (for four years and $40 million, per Ian Begley), last week gave us a lot to chew on.

Amidst all the big news though, we got some other notable nuggets from current and former beat writers (hi Matthew) that are worthy of closer inspection. Let’s go through some of that news today and pick apart what it might mean for the ‘25-26 season. I’ve linked the original article or tweet to the writer’s name for each item, and I’d encourage everyone to go check those stories out.

We’ll start with something from over the weekend that clarifies an important matter relating to the salary cap:

“Guerschon Yabusele’s contract is expected to land a little less than the full $5.7 million midlevel exception next season.” - Stefan Bondy

On Friday, I went through three different scenarios that would give the Knicks the ability to sign a 2+ year veteran to a minimum contract, and this was one of them. Per Fred Katz, Yabusele will sign for $5.5 million next season - a big enough haircut to allow the front office to sign that vet plus a required 14th player to the roster, likely someone with no NBA experience. We know James Nnaji, the 31st pick in the 2023 Draft, is coming to play in Summer League. Perhaps he’s the leader in the clubhouse for that 14th spot.

As for the 2+ year veteran they’ll now have the ability to sign, there are a few options to consider. Ben Simmons name has been mentioned, and we’ll get to him in a bit. Ian Begley had also previously reported on the possibility of bringing back Landry Shamet, who remains unsigned.

In addition to those two, here are five more names who will likely be available for the minimum that I think the Knicks should consider:

• Gary Payton II: GPII is now considered “doubtful” to return to Golden State, where he has spent the majority of the last five seasons, including two while Mike Brown was an assistant coach. The defensive demon is a bit of a tricky fit as a 6'2" guard who isn’t known as a willing 3-point shooter, but he might be a strong addition to New York’s offense if Brown can bring some of that Sacramento passing to the Knicks. Even at 32, Payton can still contribute to a winner. He averaged just over 16 minutes in the 2025 playoffs and actually went 9-for-23 from deep across 11 games.

• Trey Lyles: Another player who the new head coach is very familiar with, Lyles was the one Kings reserve who remained steadfastly in Brown’s rotation through thick and thin. Lyles reciprocated that love, and would seem to welcome the chance to play for Brown again. Signing the former Kentucky Wildcat would give the Knicks a third 4/5 tweener, which would come with its pluses and minus. In addition to giving Brown a lot of optionality in the front court, he would make New York’s rotation massive, likely relegating OG Anunoby to a full time wing. We’ll see if this is the direction they want to go.

• Seth Curry: Steph’s younger brother is getting a little long in the tooth, but the soon-to-be-35-year-old guard just had his best shooting season as a pro, leading the league with a 45.6 percent hit rate from downtown. While not the defender Landry Shamet is, he’s more consistent from deep and his movement shooting would be a boon to any team leaning into an offense-first approach. The hope is that he’d want to join a winning squad, although it sounds like the Hornets greatly value his locker room presence.

• Alec Burks: Third time’s the charm? Like Curry, the former Thibs favorite had a career-best shooting season from deep in Miami, hitting 42.5 percent from behind the arc. At this point, he’s more or less exclusively a 3-point shooter, but there’s a reason coaches can never seem to quit the guy, and he started 14 games under Spo. Probably not a full time rotation piece anymore, but as a 10th man, you can do worse.

• PJ Tucker: This would be a vote of confidence in last year’s rookie class, as Tucker’s playing days are behind him, but he clearly had an impact on New York’s locker room upon his arrival last season. Perhaps the front office feels like a new coach will solve some of the issues that required PJ’s presence to begin with, but on a roster short on veteran leadership, brining him back might be more valuable than what any of these other options can offer on the court.

Hopefully we get some news on this front before Summer League begins later this week.

Next up we have two news items with strong implications for New York’s starting five:

“Some decision makers viewed [Deandre] Ayton as a good fit next to Karl-Anthony Towns.” - Ian Begley

“The Knicks value Yabusele’s versatility off the bench, particularly behind a starting lineup featuring Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson…the fact that the Knicks factored in Yabusele’s role behind a starting lineup featuring Towns and Robinson tells you that there is some internal support for that starting five.” - Ian Begley

Begley added that the Knicks spoke to Portland about Ayton to try and get some background info on the former No. 1 overall pick. I mean…

When new head coach Mike Brown was last seen manning the sidelines, he was coaching a team with a big man not unlike Karl-Anthony Towns. While KAT and Domantas Sabonis have different strengths and weaknesses to their games, they share the same basic archetype. When placed at center, their offensive impact can be devastating, but there is a definitive trade off at the other end of the floor. Also like Towns, Sabonis had spent ample time at both center and power forward.

Not so under Brown. According to Cleaning the Glass, in Brown’s two full seasons as coach, Sabonis played 100 percent of his minutes at center. In the 31 games before he was fired last season, he finally shifted Domas to the four…for nine total minutes, when he played alongside Alex Len.

Given Brown’s recent track record, as well as the prevailing wisdom that one of the top jobs of the next head coach is to maximize KAT’s offensive impact, Begley’s reporting is a bit of a head scratcher. It makes you wonder how exactly the front office envisions this team looking next season, and whether they believe Towns has to play a decent amount of time at the four to survive defensively

It’s worth noting that Deandre Ayton and Mitchell Robinson are very different offensive players. In just 40 games last year, Ayton attempted more two-point shots from at least 14 feet (94) than Robinson has attempted outside of the restricted area in his entire career (63). While Ayton isn’t much of a deep threat, there’s a world where he and KAT could have formed a dynamic offensive duo.

Even so, if the goal is to force opposing defenses to guard Towns with their center, starting KAT next to a traditional big man all but eliminates that possibility.

Of course, there’s a possibility they think the matchups won’t matter as much with a more creative offense under Brown. The whole point of getting a center on KAT is that big men can’t keep up with his driving game. This makes for great one-on-one opportunities, but doesn’t exactly juice the offense as a whole. We saw centers play off of Josh Hart to muck up the spacing, but that can’t really happen with Mitch in the game because of his proficiency on the offensive glass.

In Brown’s two full seasons in Sacramento, the Kings were near the top of the league in passes made, total assists and potential assists. Sabonis’ unique skill set for a big was obviously vital to those numbers, but it’s not like the Knicks lack for offensive talent and have a team full of willing cutters, as we saw early on last season. On the flip side, Robinson’s presence in the dunker’s spot will naturally limit some of those opportunities.

Maybe the simplest answer is that the front office envisions KAT at the five as a dish best served sparingly. Given the relative success we saw (albeit in a limited sample size) of the KAT/Mitch pairing, maybe this isn’t the craziest idea, and the Yabusele signing gives them an added wrinkle to throw at teams regardless of which big man he pairs with.

As of now, this will be the top question heading into camp, but it certainly isn’t the only one, which brings us to the next report from Ian…

“The Knicks have been in touch with multiple backup guards on the market.” - Ian Begley

Begs reported that Dante Exum “considered the Knicks as a possible destination” before he re-signed with the Mavs last week, and that New York has been in touch with Ben Simmons.

Let’s table the plight of the Kolek hive for the moment and focus on what this implies for the players higher up on the totem poll. While Exum and Simmons are both capable backup point guards, they share another quality that is perhaps more important for the purposes of this conversation: they’re both capable of guarding wing-sized players. Exum is a sturdy 6'5" while Simmons is 6'10".

(Fun fact: Exum and new Knick Jordan Clarkson were traded for one another in 2019.)

If New York’s front office is/was targeting backup ball-handler with size, they might be envisioning a backup unit with this mystery player in addition to Clarkson and McBride, whereas a more traditionally sized backup point guard might leave those groups feeling a little small, especially if Josh Hart is at the four and Yabusele is at the five. Alternatively, a backup group with all three of Simmons, Hart and Robinson would be the worst-spaced five-man unit in the league. My guess: bringing in Simmons would be an even clearer indication that either Mitch starts or there’s a trade coming.

But thinking about what a Simmons signing means for the starting five is burying the lede here. Simmons and Exum are both players who would expect to be in the rotation if they signed in New York. That would give the Knicks 10 rotation players before we even got to the likes of Kolek, Dadiet and Hukporti.

Might the front office have watched an NBA Finals between two teams who routinely went at least 10 deep and thought that might be something they’d want to emulate? A look at Brown’s minutes distribution in Sacramento gives us a hint at the answer.

In Brown’s first year as head coach, the Kings starting lineup received a lot of attention for having the most minutes played of any 5-man group in basketball, but that was due to incredible health, not overuse. As a group, Sacto’s normal starters played just 14.3 minutes per game together, quite a bit less than league-leading Denver (17.2) as well as New York’s usual starters that year (15.9). Individually, only one King - Sabonis - was in the top 50 in the league in minutes per game in ‘22-23, coming in 36th with an average of 34.6. After that, only Fox (33.4) and Harrison Barnes (32.5) were above 30 minutes per game, while ten different Kings played at least 64 games and averaged double digit minutes.

Sabonis and Fox both had upticks in minutes in Brown’s second year to just below 36 minutes a night, but once again only three players averaged over 30 minutes and 11 different players played at least half the season and averaged at least a dozen minutes.

In short, whether it’s Ben Simmons or someone else, the front office seems to think that next year’s rotation has a chance to go 10-deep.

Of course, that still leaves the three rookies from last season, which brings us to…

“During interviews with Brown and other coaching candidates, New York concentrated on how prospective coaches could change the substitution patterns, league sources said…The Knicks hoped to find someone who could balance competitiveness with the development of younger, non-rotation players at the edge of the bench. Candidates presented strategies on how to handle such situations.” - Fred Katz

Under Tom Thibodeau, if you could walk, you could play. There was no such thing as a day of rest, regardless of back-to-backs, quality of opponent, or anything else going on. As a result, three Knicks finished in the top nine in the NBA in total minutes, including the top two. Maybe the most telling stat of the season is that Jalen Brunson played the exact same number of minutes as Darius Garland despite playing 10 fewer games.

Between that and a notoriously limited rotation, New York’s three rookies saw just over 600 total minutes combined.

It wasn’t that Tom Thibodeau was dead set against playing young players - Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes all saw regular rotation minutes as rookies - but to Thibs, every minute of every game is precious. Clearly, to at least some extent, that is going to change.

The more subtle revelation of this report - and one that connects directly with New York’s reported pursuit of Simmons and Exum - is that the front office isn’t yet counting on any of last year’s rookies to fill a rotation spot. Of course that could change depending on who else they end up signing, or based on how last year’s rookies perform at summer league, and of course on how training camp shakes out. As of now though, we probably shouldn’t count on any one of Kolek, Dadiet or Hukporti to play a significant role next season.

“The Knicks made it clear they desire a head coach who leans more on the coaching staff, including designated assistants in charge of offense and defense…I’m guessing there will be something resembling offensive and defensive coordinators.” - Stefan Bondy

Jordan Brink will coach the Knicks in Summer League - James Edwards III

“Hearing a number of coaches will be back - expecting Rick Brunson, Darren Erman, Mo Cheeks to return, possibly more than these four from Thibs staff.” - Steve Popper

“Phoenix and now New York have expressed interest in trying to hire Darvin Ham away from the Bucks…New York is expected to pursue former Lakers, Cavaliers and Raptors assistant coach Phil Handy” - Marc Stein

We’re all excited about Mike Brown. His Kings offense was a sight to behold, and he’s been responsible for some of the league’s best defenses over the years. He will obviously have a significant impact on the way the team plays at both ends of the floor.

But it also seems like he will be inheriting at least four assistants from last year’s team, plus the possibility of additional assistants (or associate head coaches) to specialize in the offense and the defense, and we haven’t even gotten to any of Brown’s own former assistants who he might want to bring into the fold. In other words, there’s going to be a lot of cooks in this kitchen.

Is that a good thing? At the very least, it would seem like Brown is on board. Then again, so was Thibs once upon a time. Kenny Payne, Mike Woodson and Johnnie Bryant were all additions made by the front office, and one by one, all three peeled off for better jobs. The most prominent replacement was Rick Brunson, who was a longtime Thibs guy. Little by little, a staff assembled from all corners of the coaching universe wound up being mostly longtime confidants of the head coach.

Ultimately, as long as everyone is pulling in the same direction and the players respond to whoever is telling them what to do, all should be well. Still, this will be something of a change from at least the last few years.

And maybe that’s for the best.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”