Seismic Shift

Dame Lillard is off to Milwaukee, leaving no shortage of questions in the aftermath of the trade.

Good morning! Just when you thought it was safe to stop scrolling Twitter before Media day…

🗣️ News & Notes ✍️

🏀 And then just like that…BOOM.

After a summer’s worth of assuming he’d end up with the Miami Heat, and then about a week’s worth of rumblings that the Raptors were getting involved, Damian Lillard is off to Milwaukee, instantly forming one of the best two-man combos in the league and among the best trios if Khris Middleton is fully recovered.

For the Bucks, the calculation is pretty simple. Two wrongs don’t make a right, but combining one flight risk (Giannis) with another guy who had his sights set on another city (Dame) might wind up placating both players. Lillard gets to compete for a title with perhaps his ideal star counterpart - someone who will still allow him to have the ball in his hands nearly as much as he’s used to. For Antetokounmpo, maybe this is all that his summer chirping was about: putting pressure on Milwaukee to make the BIG move that would vault them back into undisputed favorite status in the East, if not the league.

Obviously, there is risk - Lillard aging fast and/or Giannis bolting in two years - but clearly the Bucks looked at the alternative of half-assing the next one or two seasons and felt that trying to have their cake and eat it too would result in empty stomachs across the state of Wisconsin. Now, barring something unforeseen, they be in the hunt until 2025. After that, the future becomes incredibly uncertain, with not only another unprotected first, but two unprotected swaps out the window.

(Feel free to check out Tuesday’s piece on the underrated value of pick swaps.)

Miami, according to reporting that emerged both before and after the trade went down, was simply unwilling to increase what they would offer Portland, whatever or whoever that might have been. Is that because they’re keeping their powder dry for a bigger fish further out in the ocean? Considering how Dame would have been a perfect fit, it’s fair to ask. Then again, maybe they never thought another serious suitor would emerge, let alone the team with perhaps their No. 1 long-term target.

As for Toronto, who knows what to believe anymore as far as what Masai Ujiri is or isn’t willing to do? There was some talk yesterday about their unwillingness to offer up OG Anunoby to Toronto, but if they weren’t willing to trade Anunoby, what else were they really offering? They remain a perplexing NBA subplot as the rest of the league does business south of the border.

And of course we have the Knicks, who, while never in on Lillard themselves, were always bound to be impacted by the repercussions of his eventual destination. My thoughts, in no particular order…

🏀 I’m not sure how much this changes their thinking or planning around Giannis (with one significant exception I’ll get to momentarily).

When the Freak is able to hit free agency in 2025, Lillard will be on the verge of his 35th birthday. The history of small guards maintaining elite effectiveness past that age is small, although Steph Curry will test that theory this season. Antetokounmpo won’t feel any additional pressure to extend before then, because he knows the money will be there regardless. Maybe he extends next summer and all speculation goes up in smoke, but I’d assume he will keep his options open.

That means any teams who thinks they have a chance at stealing Giannis away may keep their options open as well. That might not be an issue if no superstar player comes on the market. But if one does, it could make for a dicey decision for some team out there.

Speak of the devil…

🏀 Things were setting up so nicely for the Knicks and anyone else who had designs on a mammoth acquisition next July. If Anetetokounmpo started getting antsy, perhaps he would be made available, and would have instantly become everyone’s top target. If not, the reigning league MVP in Philly would make for a damn fine consolation prize.

But at least teams would be able to confront both possibilities at once. Now, in all likelihood, the Bucks are going to keep this thing together for another two years. Embiid, meanwhile, may not have that level of patience with the Sixers. If he demands out after this season, it could create a fascinating decision for Leon Rose: try and trade for Embiid, or keep hope alive for Antetokounmpo?

These are, to be clear, first world problems that the Knicks would be blessed to have. It’s entirely possible neither Giannis or Embiid never want to leave their current situations, and if one or both does, there’s a strong chance that another team can beat New York’s best offer.

My guess: if Joel wants to be here, Philly is a willing partner, and New York feels like they have a contending team after a acquiring him, they won’t hesitate, the possibility of Giannis be damned.

🏀 More first world problems: if the Knicks are fortunate enough to vault into the contender tier next summer, they’ll now likely have a powerhouse Milwaukee team to worry about.

A wide-open East just got a lot tighter, for the next few years at least.

🏀 Finally, we save the most immediate question for last: will - or should - the Knicks get in the mix for Jrue Holiday, who Portland seems intent on rerouting elsewhere.