So You're Telling Me There's a Chance

How much do New York's title odds really matter this season?

Good morning! We got some NBA news over the weekend, when Joel Embiid signed a mammoth contract extension to stay in Philly until after his knees fully give out through the rest of his prime. I’ll have some thoughts on Embiid and the Sixers later this week, but today we take a look at New York’s odds to win it all next season and whether we should care one way or another.

So You're Telling Me There's a Chance

We start today off with a multi-part question from Darryl Genovesi that really got me thinking a week out from the opening of camp:

Just thinking about where we are - pretty good, but we probably aren’t beating a healthy Celtics team and I’m not sure we’re beating a healthy Sixers team either. The Bucks are there. The Magic and Pacers are making steady progress. We have a shot to maybe come out of the East one of these years but only if the stars happen to align. First, is this a fair characterization in your view?

Before I answer Darryl’s question, let’s take a quick trip to Vegas.

Here are the Eastern Conference Championship odds for the East’s presumed top eight according to the four major online betting sites:

As you can see, the Celtics are clear favorites, followed by the Sixers, who are a smidgen ahead of the Knicks in most books. The Bucks aren’t far behind in fourth, and then there’s a gap between Milwaukee and everyone else, all of whom have at least 20-to-1 odds.

The odds to win the title fall roughly in line with odds for the East:

Boston is about 3-to-1, OKC is 7-to-1, and then the Knicks find themselves in a group with Philly and Denver at either 8-to-1 or 9-to-1. The Wolves, Mavs and Bucks are all between 10-to-1 and 15-to-1, and everyone else is at least 30-to-1.

Are these odds fair? Does it matter? Let’s dive in.