Still Kickin'
After it looked like the season might be slipping away, the Knicks bounced back in as impressive a way possible. Now comes the hard part.
Happy belated Easter! It’s April, the good Lord has risen, and the Knicks are .500. Could there be more reasons to offer a 20 percent discount to anyone who isn’t a full-time subscriber?
Also, ICYMI, we launched the KFS Merch Store on Tee Public, so feel free to get that coffee mug with the official Knicks Film School logo you’ve just been dying to start your day with.
Game 49: Knicks 86, Mavs 99 - “KP still sucks.”
Aside from one glorious, Obi-led four-minute stretch in the second quarter when the Knicks outscored the Mavs 19-7, as well as KP not being able to throw it in the Hudson from Chelsea Piers, this was a pretty miserable evening for the Knicks.
In the other 44 minutes of basketball played by the home team, New York scored just 67 points. Other than the absolutely indispensable Alec Burks (6-for-11 for 20 points; averaging 16.2 on 45/43/87 splits post-All Star break), the Knicks’ big guns all fired blanks, with Randle, RJ, IQ and Rose combining to shoot 11-for-50. Julius in particular just could not buy one, although it didn’t necessarily feel like he was pressing, as he ended up with 11 of the team’s 18 assists.
Even with the offensive struggles, this was a 3-point game with under seven minutes left. The Knicks simply couldn’t buy a bucket when it mattered most, and their defense - solid for most of the evening against the league’s 4th best post-ASG offense - could only do so much.
Game 50: Knicks 125, Pistons 81 - “I needed that.”
14-0. 24-3. 51-21. Pick your score marker. This one was over early.
Well…it was over, but there were a couple of tense moments in the early third when Detroit cut the lead to 17 with multiple chances to cut it by even more.
For all intents and purposes though, this game was a good old fashioned blowout. Julius Randle and Reggie Bullock set the tone early, as they hit two 3-pointers each for four of New York’s first five baskets. The pair ended up combining for 34-first quarter points, 19 more than the Pistons had in the initial frame, and ended up with 29 and 22, respectively.
RJ Barrett (14 points on seven shots), Immanuel Quickley (12 points on six shots) and the indefatigable Taj Gibson (11 points on five shots) also had tidy efforts that contributed to the scoring output, with Nerlens Noel (four blocks and two steals) chipping in on the the other end.
Perhaps most encouraging of all, Kevin Knox came in late and went 3-for-3 from deep. I remain convinced there is in NBA player in there somewhere.
It wasn’t, however, the most encouraging stretch from a young Knick this weekend…
Obi Poppin
FINALLY.
We’ve been waiting for months for Obi Toppin to have a moment. And for as much of a downer as Friday night was, the silver lining of the evening wasn’t insignificant.
It was more than Toppin looking like an actual professional basketball player for the first time in a few weeks. It was seeing Obi for what he could be in the right role: a weapon.
The dunk was awesome, and if we’re grading by pure excitement, his throw down was probably the high point of the season for this team. But it wasn’t my favorite play of his from Friday night:
There aren’t a ton of big guys in the NBA with a respectable 3-pointer who can also put the ball on the floor, turn the corner, and finish at the rim like this. Obviously the first part of the that equation is still a work in progress, but for all those hellaciously bad misses from the corners, Obi is still shooting 30 percent from downtown this season. We can work with that.
Following this bucket, he had another nice drive for an and-one, then a decisive pull up jumper coming off a screen, and finally that fabulous flush. Aside from the adrenaline rush that sequence provided, you had to love it as a Knicks fan for two reasons:
For once, the Knicks thrived when Julius Randle was out of the game, and we weren’t nervously counting the seconds until he checked back in. If they hope to do anything with the rest of this season, this needs to continue.
Toppin’s teammates got more and more excited with each bucket, as they have every time he’s so much as walked and chewed gum at the same time. This kid is absolutely putting in the work behind the scenes, and his boys desperately want to see the hard work pay off. So do we all.
It’s been a rough first season, but Toppin has yet to play his 500th NBA minute. Long way to go before the book is written on him.
Tough Guys Finish First
So what happened was he went up for a dunk and OH GOOD GOD MAKE IT STOP
And then, in less than 10 seconds of game action later, like the He-Man that he is:
Max him yesterday. The Norvel Pelle Era has begun.
Pass of the Weekend
Nice luxury to have a 6’6” fullback-sized wing with this kind of touch:
After totaling four or more assists just 13 times in 56 games last season, Barrett has now hit that mark 20 times in 50 games following four dimes in 28 minutes on Saturday night.
That included something I would love to see more of from the second-year Dukie: passing out of a post up, which he does here on a patient, perfectly timed swing to Immanuel Quickley in the corner:
Notice how he waits for Josh Jackson to get a foot into the restricted area before he dishes this one. Bit by bit, the playmaking is coming along.
Next Up…
🏀 Who: Brooklyn Nets (34-16, 2nd in the East)
⌚️ When: 7:00 pm
½ Halftime Zoom: Click here to enter.
📍 Where: If a basketball team relocates from Jersey and nobody cares, does it matter?
🤕 Who’s Out: We’re awaiting word on whether this will be the long awaited return for KD (who, by the by, has played a grand total of 19 of a possible 122 games since coming to Brooklyn), as well as whether Harden will end his mini-absence. You know what? I hope they both play. Fuck it.
🔜 What’s Next: This starts the home stretch, when 21 of New York’s final 22 games will come against teams who are (right now at least) in the playoff chase. Of those, they play the big eight - Philly, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Utah, Phoenix, the LA teams and Denver - seven times.
Depending on which Lakers are healthy for their two matchups with the defending champs and whether any of the other West powerhouses are resting guys late in the season, you figure New York gets one, maybe two of those games. Maybe one comes tomorrow.
Either way, this season will be defined by the other 14 games (I’m praying they take care of business in Houston). They are capable of wining or losing every one of those contests. Do they go 10-4? 4-10? I’m as excited as anyone to find out.
We had ourselves a legitimately historic sports moment on Saturday night. And I’m not talking about Norvel Fever (catch it!)
Jalen Suggs, who has firmly entrenched himself as a top-five pick ahead of July’s NBA Draft, banked in a three from damn near 40 feet in overtime to send undefeated Gonzaga to the National Championship Game against Baylor. I, of course, remained eloquent in response to the moment:
Suggs is exactly what the Knicks need: a true lead guard capable of directing an offense, penetrating the defense, and striking fear into the hearts of opponents from deep (33 percent from deep be damned). Is he Dame at the next level? Chauncey Billups? Young Deron Williams?
Whatever he is, it’s going to be good, and he’s the sort of guy who might be able to single-handedly change the trajectory of this franchise. Unfortunately, as it stands, the Knicks are highly unlikely to be in a position to draft Suggs without a trade, although it certainly isn’t impossible.
The way the lottery works this year, if a team makes the play-in tournament but doesn’t play their way into the seventh or eighth seed, they enter into the lottery and their odds are determined by their record in comparison with the other teams in the lotto. Theoretically, the Knicks could finish 8th or 9th, and depending on how certain teams do out West, lose the play-in and enter the lottery with the 11th or 12th best odds at landing in the top four.
There also exists the possibility they simply bottom out over the last 22 games (although as you’ll see below, I highly doubt it). They sit just three games from 10th place in the lottery odds, with both the Bulls and Raptors - two teams who theoretically have runs in them - currently in the top 10.
Even with that possibility and the new lottery odds, 9th place has just a 20 percent chance of moving up. Assuming the Knicks’ pick lands somewhere in the 10 to 16 range, the better question is the one that BossTalkNY poses above.
The good news is that draft history of littered with teams trading away top-five picks, including several players of some renown, among them Luka Doncic, LaMarcus Aldridge, Deron Williams, Pau Gasol, Antonio McDyess, and probably most famously, Chris Webber.
Here’s the problem: While the vast majority of these trades involve moving down the draft board, almost none of them saw teams move from the top five to outside of the top-10 entirely. The last top-five pick to be dealt on draft night without a top-10 pick in the same draft coming back was Jeff Green in 2007, and he was traded for future Hall-of-Famer Ray Allen.
There were three other similar trades in the early oughts, with 5th pick Devin Harris going to Dallas for 28-year-old Antawn Jamison in 2004, and both the 2nd pick (Tyson Chandler) and 3rd pick (Pau Gasol) in 2001 getting dealt for Elton Brand and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, respectively.
While Jamison, Brand and Abdur-Rahim are all rough equivalents to Julius Randle, I imagine the Knicks would want to add Suggs to Julius, not exchange them for one another.
Which brings us to the only two times in the last 30 years that a top-five pick was dealt neither for another top-10 pick nor an All-Star level player. Both occurred in the 90’s, and neither seems easily replicable.
In 1999, 2nd overall pick Steve Francis made it known he was not going to play for some city in Canada he’d never heard of, and forced the hand of the Grizzlies, who dealt him to the Rockets in a complex three-team deal that netted Vancouver a player coming off an All-Rookie 2nd Team selection in Michael Dickerson, some boring vets, and two future firsts.
Four years earlier, in a move that made no sense at the time and even less in retrospect, moved another 2nd overall pick, Antonio McDyess, for the 15th selection (Brent Barry) and Rodney Rogers, a nondescript, undersized big man entering his third season.
In short, if the Knicks hope to move up in this draft for Jalen Suggs, they’re probably going to need to break precedent to do so. My guess is that Suggs would need to play a role, maybe not going full-on Stevie Franchise, but something close to it behind the scenes. As for the cost, I’d assume both New York’s and Dallas’ firsts this season, plus a future lightly protected first and a young player.
Would that be Kevin Knox? Obi Toppin? Immanuel Quickley? Who knows, but the price is going to be damn high. Is Suggs worth it? Maybe we’ll get a little more clarity on that answer by this time tomorrow.
No Doubt
You could feel it.
Bit by bit, inch by inch, beginning to creep in.
That most damaging of mental states, the one that lurks in the background of all good things that happen, in sports as much as in life itself.
Doubt.
Like any longstanding relationship, the emotional baggage that comes with being a Knicks fan is filled with doubt. Whether its a blip on the radar - a single clanged Randle three or off-target RJ runner - or a full on blast like we saw in Minnesota, a sense of security rarely accompanies the viewing experience.
And heading into the weekend, the vibes were bad. The way they lost these games portended a final third of the season in which all the good juju built up over the first 46 games would come crashing down in a heap of bricks. An average of just 45 second half points over the three losses. Blown leads of nine, 18 and 13 points. Five days’ worth of struggles for New York’s three most important offensive players, as Julius Randle (40 percent), RJ Barrett (36 percent) and Immanuel Quickley (25 percent) seemed to be hitting a wall.
Perhaps most damning, the Knicks were still unable to muster a cohesive offense when it mattered most. A four and a half minute fourth quarter stretch with two points against the Heat. Four points in five and a half minutes against the Wolves. Two points in six minutes against the Mavs.
It all pointed to the same thing: When defenses bore down, the Knicks went belly up.
So yes, even this Pistons team - one that entered Saturday 20 games under .500 -provided cause for concern.
And no, even with their most resounding win of the season, New York didn’t vanquish all of the festering concerns that have bubbled up of late. They will be able to address some of them in the weeks ahead, as their next dozen opponents all have net ratings in the top 20 of the NBA. Aside from a trip to Houston in early May, there are no patsies remaining on the schedule.
But this win, and the way in which it was achieved, was important nonetheless. For one, there was a verve to the offense that had been sorely lacking for some time. The Knicks haven’t generated many assists all season long, but while they failed to hit at least 19 dimes only five times in their first 39 games, they fell short of that mark five more times in just their last 10 before putting up a season high 31 in Detroit. It also helped that they (Clyde Frazier voice) moved the ball and moved themselves with a purpose.
The other thing is that they came out of the gate without an ounce of hesitation, firing 14 bombs from deep in the first quarter alone. The Knicks are a top-10 team in 3-point percentage but bottom-five in 3-point attempt rate, which feeds into opponents repeatedly daring them to bust the zone. The easiest counter to that is a quick trigger, which New York had on Saturday anytime any player had a sliver of daylight.
And why shouldn’t they? Three of the Knicks’ four highest volume 3-point shooters - Bullock, Burks and Randle - are hitting at least 40 percent from deep, with Immanuel Quickley at 37 percent. RJ has been a 38 percent deep-baller since the calendar flipped to 2021, as has Derrick Rose since his return to New York. We don’t yet know if the Knicks will live or die by the three down the stretch of this season, but we can be certain they’ll get to mid-May D.O.A. if they don’t at least start firing away.
Most importantly, the Knicks doubled down on their calling card all season long, firmly establishing themselves as a team who may not come out with a W, but is going to make your life all kinds of difficult regardless.
Over the last 10 games, the Knicks have the best defensive rating in basketball. It doesn’t matter who they played; if an opponent had to play seven minutes before they scored their seventh point, that’s damn impressive. The unit that so many were convinced would fall back down to earth has instead continued to rise, holding nine of their last 10 opponents to 102 or fewer points.
So here these Knicks sit, with as many wins as losses after 50 games and 22 remaining that will decide their fate. While the last week was a reminder that New York’s limitations will prevent them from doing any real damage this season, Saturday night was an equal reminder that they are not frauds either. 13 teams entered play on Sunday with a net rating between 2.0 and -2.0, and the Knicks are third among them at plus 0.9. That’s good for 12th overall in the league as a whole, within shouting distance of the big boys.
They aren’t going to get there, but that’s never been what this season was supposed to be about. It was about reestablishing this franchise as one the rest of the league needed to take seriously. That they were no longer a walk over - a get well game for those in need.
For as bumpy as things have been, at the very least, they’ve cleared that hurdle.
No doubt about it.
That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe for free to JB’s Metropolitan. See everyone soon! #BlackLivesMatter