The 10 Percent

Can the Knicks beat the only teams that matter? After Saturday, we're left wondering.

Good morning.

Sobering Sunday in Knicks land.

Game 52: Celtics 131, Knicks 104

• With Precious Achiuwa starting for OG Anunoby, the offense was untenable and the Knicks quickly went down 12-2.

• A disparity in made free throws was the only thing keeping New York in shouting distance at halftime, as Boston largely dominated the first half.

• A spirited Knick run fueled by a lineup change and some Brunson magic cut the deficit to three midway through the third, but a 19-3 run put the game out of reach before we got to the fourth quarter.

• Brunson was magnificent, finishing with 36, but no one else answered the bell.

• The Knicks are once again left with more questions than answers

The Malone / Stockton Utah Jazz.

The Kemp / GP Sonics.

The Steve Nash Suns.

The Pre-Duncan Spurs

The Lob City Clippers.

Drexler’s Blazers.

Reggie’s Pacers.

And yes, the 90’s Knicks.

All teams that hold indelible places in the hearts of their fan bases to this day. All teams lead by Top 75 all-time players. All teams that knocked on the door for the better part of a decade.

And all teams that could never quite get over the hump.

Some had the misfortune of playing in the same era as Michael Jordan. Some were lead by a player who couldn’t quite come up big enough in the biggest moments. Some just got plain unlucky.

Whatever it was, against 90 percent of the league, every one of those teams looked like they could win the NBA championship, and yet history remembers them largely for what they couldn’t do against the other 10 percent.

Ten percent.

It’s such a small number. It’s three days out of a month. It’s a 90 on a test. It’s a dime.

In this context, it’s three NBA teams.

And yet, for a Knicks organization that is off to its best 52-game start in nearly three decades, those three teams might be the only ones that matter.

It’s tempting to simplify it down to the raw data against the class of the NBA: five games, five losses, and a 91-point combined margin of defeat to the Celtics, Thunder and Cavs. That includes their only three 20-plus point losses of the season, the latest and greatest of which came on Saturday, when we could tell from the opening tip that very little had changed since opening night.

No one would be wrong for coming away from this game with the prevailing thought that the Knicks simply aren’t on Boston’s level, but in this instance, the “how” is at least as important as the “what.”

From the moment the Karl-Anthony Towns trade went down, an immediate question was asked about New York’s championship equity: could a roster with subpar defenders as their dual offensive tentpoles possibly overcome a team with no ostensible weaknesses?

On opening night, the initial answer was a clear “no,” but that was also a Knicks team at the starting gate when it came to its communication and connectivity on defense. They were haphazard in their coverages, and Boston took full advantage, nailing open three after open three, nearly setting an NBA record in the process.

This game, for as much as the final score was nearly identical, was very different. For one, New York largely refused to borrow from Peter to pay Paul, choosing not to help off of Boston shooters with their stronger defenders and leaving their weaker ones to do their part. That involved arguably the most significant tactical decision of the season, as Tom Thibodeau challenged Jalen Brunson to switch onto Boston’s wings, even going to far as to slot Brunson onto Jalen Brown as the initial matchup on a few occasions. In addition, they were more aggressive in their pick and roll coverage, mostly eschewing a deep drop and bringing the screener defender - usually KAT - closer to the level of the screen to prevent pull-up triples.

As a result of those two decisions, the Celtics attempted only 39 threes - nearly 10 below their season average and 22 fewer than on opening night. Yes, Boston still tore through the seams and found open looks from behind the arc more than the Knicks would have liked, but the Celtics generated 32 total open or wide open looks according to NBA.com, as opposed to 50 such looks in the opener.

It didn’t matter, and it started with an issue that looked more glaring than ever.

These are two different clips, in case you didn’t realize, not a repeat of the same one.

(As proof, the screener is different between the first and second play).

These were two of Boston’s 17 restricted area field goals on 25 attempts, compared to 12 makes in 15 attempts on opening night. Those numbers belittle the disparity between these two games, as the Celtics also went from eight free throw attempts in the opener to 24 on Saturday.

As I watched one Jayson Tatum gash after another, I couldn’t help but think back to the overwhelming sentiment after so many dispiriting losses this season, when the Knicks would give up far too many 3-pointers for their liking. Let them take their chances at the rim, because anything else is better than this. Well, this is what “anything else” looks like, at least against the Celtics. Now imagine when Boston gets back Kristaps Porzingis, who adds the threat of a pop that was missing in both matchups.

This is the puzzle the Knicks are tasked with solving. They have had two cracks at it, and have fallen woefully short both times. First, it was dropping and helping that failed. Now, it was a slightly more aggressive approach that cratered. The common denominator was Towns, who showed as little resistance in this loss as in any game so far this season.

But that’s also only half of the story, because the terrifying beauty of these Celtics is that they’re matchup proof on both ends of the floor. That starts with Boston’s ability to take away the “safe hiding spot” most teams offer. They can and do bring any offensive player in the action to set the screen, because all of their non-centers can shoot and put the ball on the floor if need be. Whether you’re a center or a point guard, there’s nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.

The bigger problem is that much like the Thunder and Cavs, the C’s have zero issue slotting a non-center on KAT when New York has the ball, thus allowing them to switch everything and prevent the Knicks from generating good looks from three. Sure enough, non-Brunson Knicks took only 17 shots from behind the arc on Saturday. Towns did nothing in this game to make the Celtics rethink that strategy.

It’s no coincidence that KAT’s three single-digit shot attempt games have come against Boston and Cleveland. That’s a major issue for a team whose best hope for a title still lies in having an unguardable offense. If Towns is relegated to a Brook Lopez level of offensive impact, the philosophy of this roster gets boiled down to Jalen Brunson wearing Superman’s cape. That will only take them so far.

It all comes back to that 10 percent, and the question of whether the front office has assembled a team destined to join the ranks of the ones I listed above.

There’s no way to answer that question today, but being the eternal optimist, here’s five reasons to see the glass half full:

1. They have “The Guy.” Not that we needed a reminder, but in Jalen Brunson, the Knicks have one of the handful of best, most matchup-proof offensive players in the sport. That much we knew. What we learned on Saturday is that Brunson is up to the task of switching onto Boston’s big bads. It didn’t always end well, but it didn’t have to. If he can make them work hard and force just enough misses, that’ll do just fine. Such a performance opens the door, at least a crack, to a future where New York eschews a center against Boston altogether, putting JB on the floor with four switchable wings. They’ll probably need at least one more transaction cycle to get that fourth wing (or pray that Pacome Dadiet has a development summer for the ages), because Deuce leaves them a little small and they don’t have the big with quite that switch capacity (although the Incredible Huk has me very intrigued). Still, Brunson taking on that challenge and living to tell the tale was a more encouraging sign from this game than anything.

2. There’s one more schematic adjustment left. There’s no shortage of reasons why Tom Thibodeau has thus far resisted the urge to switch KAT onto smaller perimeter players. It leaves a foul-prone player even more susceptible to foul trouble, takes him away from rebounding position, tires him out, and more than anything, asks him to do something that’s really freaking hard to do well, even for those who are good at it. At this point though, they may not have a choice, at least if they want to keep Towns on the floor. Although…

3. KAT, along with several other Knicks, will be better. There are levels to bad NBA defense, but on Saturday night, Towns reached the rarified sub-basement air known as “traffic cone.” He will be better if only because he can’t be worse. On offense, Towns did nothing to punish Boston smalls, while Mikal Bridges (5-for-15), Deuce McBride (1-for-8) and Josh Hart (7-for-16, three turnovers, only three assists) each had arguably one of their five worst offensive games of the season, largely independent from anything Boston was doing (although I do wonder if Hart - whose first half was an abomination - was in his own head, knowing how much pressure lay on his shoulders to punish Boston’s strategy of guarding him with their center). When you factor in the 12-2 demolition of the Precious-at-the-four lineup, there’s reason to be encouraged.

4. Reinforcements are coming. Speaking of Achiuwa, we got a glimpse of Bad Precious in this game. He was a minus-37 in 33 minutes - an accurate indicator of his impact at both ends. I’d argue that slotting OG in his place will have a bigger impact on New York’s fortunes than getting both KP and Jrue back will have for Boston, simply because of the respective roster constructions and how much Anunoby’s presence matters. On top of that, while Mitchell Robinson hasn’t usually fared will against the Celtics, he will give Boston a very different look, especially if the Knicks are willing to switch a small onto KP (and they should be. At this point, a Porzingis post up should be viewed as a winning outcome for the Knicks’ defense). Looking even further ahead, this summer should allow the front office to add one more #meaningful piece to the puzzle, knowing full well what type of players they need to counter this specific matchup. If they can get just the right guy, maybe Josh Hart is no longer an auto-start, which would take away the only safe hiding place opposing teams are sometimes able to exploit.

5. This was actually a game for a hot minute. Despite all the advantages Boston seems to have and all the ways the Knicks fell short, Boston led by just three points midway through the third quarter, right before a few questionable 3-point foul calls and an unconscious Tatum explosion helped blow the game open. That’s the thing about these Knicks…for whatever faults they have, they are a gritty bunch who tend to find a way. The gap on Saturday was little too far to bridge, but each game they play against these heavy hitter teams gives them a bit more evidence about the eventual solution to beating them.

That’s the best I got. It all might fall on deaf ears for some, and that’s fine. With a showing like that, they’ve earned any doubt coming their way.

It’s up to them to make believers of us all.

💫 Stars of the Game 💫

⭐️ Delon Wright: Congrats on a stellar Knicks debut, Delon. I totally wasn’t on an F train headed back to Brooklyn when it happened.

⭐️ ⭐️ Cameron Payne: He didn’t cower in the face of the almighty Celtics, which is more than most of his teammates can say. He was 5-for-8 before garbage time and mostly held the fort while he was in. Continues to give the Knicks a spark when they need it.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Jalen Brunson: The dude keeps leveling up.

The only major deficit in his arsenal is not a fixable one, not unless the Captain America super soldier serum becomes street legal. It’s why the majority of 29 other GM’s would probably choose Tatum over Brunson if they could only pick only one.

But I guarantee you that all 29 would have second thoughts because there is no stat to measure heart.

Brunson finished with 36 points on 18 shots and single handedly kept his team in the game for as long as he could. Of all the reasons I have hope they’ll figure out this puzzle, Brunson’s presence is by far the biggest one.

He’s also the biggest reason to root for their success.

Final Thought

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”