The Anthony Davis Manifesto
Let's discuss the merits of a trade
Good Morning,
The Nets made a trade and will compete with the Knicks for free agents. The Knicks plan to woo Kawhi Leonard on June 30. There are a bunch of pre-draft workouts happening today.
We catch you up on the news quickly this morning because we have a deep dive on the merits of trading for Anthony Davis. Enjoy!
by Jonathan Macri
It was time.
After weeks of going back and forth on the Anthony Davis trade front, I knew I needed to come to a decision. And yet, the more time I’ve spent thinking about it, the darker the rabbit hole has become.
At this point, the only thing I can say with any conviction is that anyone else who says with conviction that they know whether making a trade is the smart move is either a) far smarter than me, or b) kidding themselves.
Let’s be frank: none of us have any idea whether or not completing such a league-altering transaction would be in the best interest of the franchise. The reason why is simple: while no trade is ever made with complete certainty on all fronts, this trade would have worlds of uncertainty on every front, including but not limited to:
Whether Davis would help attract/is vitally necessary to attract/doesn’t factor at all in the attraction of another star;
Whether he re-signs next summer, something that’s incredibly dubious if they can’t sign another star to pair with him;
Whether his injury issues are behind him;
Whether Kevin Knox is any good;
Ditto for Dennis Smith Jr.;
Double ditto for RJ Barrett;
Whether Davis is worth giving up all those “what if’s” for when he might be playing alongside two of the more ball-dominant players in the league, and in turn…
Whether his primary value in that scenario would be that of a defensive monster and ultimate high pick & roll threat, and…
Whether Mitchell Robinson can give you 85% of exactly that at a fraction of the cost, in which case…
The assets that would otherwise be used in a Davis trade would be better served trying to obtain Bradley Beal, whose fit alongside KD and Kyrie or Kemba is far easier to forecast, and finally…
Whether Davis might just come on his own accord next summer.
Let’s start with that last one, because the biggest misconception out there is that this would be a redux of the Melo trade.
There are a lot of reasons why this move wouldn’t really be all that comparable to the one the franchise made for Carmelo Anthony (I wrote about some of them here) but the primary one is this: Melo was always going to come in free agency, which was a mere five months away at the time. On the off chance they waited and he balked? So what…the price they paid was exorbitant, not necessarily in terms of the players given up, but in the opportunity cost of no longer being able to use those players/picks in a later deal. There was zero reason to rush.
This is entirely different. If the Knicks sit this one out (or effectively sit it out by lowballing the Pelicans), while nothing is certain, there’s a better than decent AD is a Laker come training camp. With Kyrie movin’ on up to the East side, Boston isn’t putting all their chips on the table.
Is there a chance new Pels President David Griffin actually has the guts to take this thing into the season? Sure…but if he has intel that AD’s stance isn’t going to change, he may be doing himself a massive disservice by waiting. Aside from not being able to acquire picks in this draft before they’re made and thus not being able to take the players he wants, holding onto Davis into the year likely lessens the number of suitors for his services.
Right now, only the Lakers, Knicks and Clippers have been identified as teams who AD would be willing to re-sign with. Another team might take a shot that they can sell him on their culture/organization/waterfront practice facility, but only if they had a whole year to do so, a ‘la Toronto with Kawhi Leonard. Waiting to move Davis until the season starts, let alone the trade deadline, not only eliminates this possibility, but decreases AD’s guaranteed service time with his new team, thus potentially lowering what a suitor would be willing to pay.
The Knicks, of course, should be praying Griffin waits, both for one obvious reason and one that is less so, which we’ll get to in a bit.
First, the obvious: if the Knicks don’t need to move for Davis by the draft, they’ll have the luxury of seeing how free agency shakes out before deciding on a trade.
Let’s not underestimate the massive importance of this. It’s already been reported by SNY’s Ian Begley that Davis would be willing to re-sign with the Knicks if he felt he could succeed here. Translation: if the Knicks can pair him with Kevin Durant, he’s not going anywhere.
Remember “if p then q” from high school math? Having the luxury to hold off on a possible trade until July gives us several of these conditional statements:
If KD won’t come unless you get another star, and AD is the only one gettable, then you make the trade
If AD says he needs KD here to be comfortable re-signing, and KD goes elsewhere, then you don’t make the trade
If KD and a second star sign in free agency, then you pay whatever it takes to get Davis.
Scenario three is the one that has generated the most conversation and the one that has fans the most divided, which is kind of funny. It’s like the world’s unluckiest man arguing with his wife over whether they should buy a brownstone in Williamsburg or a penthouse on Central Park West in the event they someday win the lottery.
Let’s make this explicitly clear: should Kevin Durant and either Kawhi Leonard or Kyrie Irving or Kemba Walker or Jimmy Butler or Klay Thompson sign with the Knicks, everything that happens after that moment is gravy.
They decide to roll with those two guys, the kids, someone decent on the room exception, and a few veteran ring-chasers? We’re all gonna get laid. They move all the kids and some picks for Anthony David to form a Big Three that would arguably rival any of LeBron’s title teams in terms of sheer talent? We’re still getting laid.
Which scenario is better? It depends. Adding Davis to KD and another max is certainly safer in that it gives you a definitive championship ceiling. For a team that hasn’t won in 46 years, yeah…that matters. As Zach Lowe said on his podcast last month when discussing a potential trade, the possibility exists that Kevin Knox, Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina simply aren’t that good.
He’s not being a media hater; he’s simply speaking the truth. Is it silly to assume Knox is bad based off of one age-19 season that saw him take on way more at both ends than he was ready for? Yes. Is it just as silly to assume he’ll blossom into an All-Star level player at some point? Absolutely.
As fans, it’s fun and convenient to predict such a ceiling. For people whose jobs depend on the outcomes of these decisions, it’s far less simple. It’s the reason why I’ve said a few times this offseason that New York’s internal assessment of their own players looms incredibly large this summer. Personally, I see Knox as a 6’10” dude who can move with the ball, just shot 34% from three on considerable volume, and whose decision making improved by leaps and bounds as the season drew to a close.
I also saw someone who couldn’t defend me or you. Projecting that level of defense in a league where you won’t see the court in May or June unless you have the offensive ceiling of Steph Curry or Kyrie Irving is rough. If you don’t believe me, just watch these Finals.
Will Knox improve on that end? Will Dennis Smith Jr. ever shoot well enough to not be Eric Bledose’d in a high stakes playoff series, let alone play consistent defense? Will Ntilikina ever do enough on offense to justify playing him? Is RJ Barrett a slightly less wealthy man’s James Harden or a more inefficient DeMar DeRozan?
All of these are unknowns, which is the second, less obvious benefit to the Davis sweepstakes going past June 20: it gives New York’s more uncertain assets a chance to recoup/establish some value, thus potentially lessening the cost for AD.
Right now, David Griffin has to do right by his franchise. Getting a sure thing is paramount, and the Knicks probably have less of them than other suitors. Depending on how the Pelicans view RJ Barrett, it’s possible that New Orleans values Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma as much or more than anything in the Knicks cupboard.
The Knicks would be selling low by trading now, which is not something good teams generally do. Just look at the Raptors, who acquired their entire core when their respective values were at their lowest.
Should that matter? One could argue that no price would have been too high for this version of Kawhi Leonard, but imagine if they had to give up Paskal Siakam in the deal. Does Knox have a Siakam-like ceiling? Or, on the flip side, does he fail to develop in certain necessary areas and lose his value altogether?
It’s anyone’s guess, but the smart money says waiting would benefit New York more than any other team out there. The Lakers and Celtics assets are what they are, but the Knicks have four guys with the talent to pop in a big way: Knox, Smith Jr, (we’re assuming) RJ Barrett, and Mitch. The odds are that at least one of them does.
My money is on the big guy.
We’ve all sung Robinson’s praises, and deservedly so. His blocks and lobs electrified a Garden that was otherwise lit by candle this season. The question is whether he should be the thing that holds up a trade for a 26-year-old generational star.
Projecting Robinson’s development is a fascinating exercise. We’ve seen soon to be two-time DPOY winner Rudy Gobert rendered ineffective if not unplayable in consecutive playoffs. May and June basketball takes away the tenets of traditional rim protection and instead tests how well large humans can navigate the dangerous terrain that exists 20 to 25 feet away from the hoop. This is not changing anytime soon.
Mitchell Robinson has shown that ability. His penchant for blocking threes is a possible new weapon in the never-ending NBA holy war between offense and defense. As he gets more and more comfortable on the court, no shooter will be safe. Invite switches at your own peril.
Couple that with an insane vertical and second leap and you have Clint Capela with infinity stones. If he develops the jumper we keep seeing video of, you have something much, much more.
The possibility that Robinson develops into that sort of player is real – more real than any other young Knick hitting their ceiling – and comes at a bargain basement price for two more years (technically three, but that would allow Mitch to become an unrestricted free agent, a chance not worth taking).
That player also isn’t Anthony Davis.
It is hard to overstate how gifted Davis is in every conceivable way. He is switch-proof and matchup proof. He stretches and spaces the floor whether he’s near the rim or at the arc. Put the ball in Davis’ hands anywhere on the court and he is a threat.
Just think: Nikola Jokic got much well-deserved praise last season for having maybe the best passing campaign by a big man ever, finishing the season averaging 20 points and 7.3 dimes a game. Davis averaged 25 and 3.9.
In NBA history, only six men have ever averaged 20 and 4: Kareem (nine times), Wilt (seven times), David Robinson, Pau Gasol, Brad Daugherty and Jokic. Davis will get there, probably multiple times. We may not have seen his ceiling.
In short, Davis is a guard in the body of a big. There is nothing he cannot do on a basketball court. It’s why he’s 12th on the career list of win shares per 48 minutes, behind only some names you may have heard of.
Ultimately, if you have a chance to pair that player with a 31-year-old Kevin Durant and another star for at least the next four seasons, as difficult as it would be to stomach all of the possible downside risk, you have to do it. Save me your arguments about filling in the roster around them. There will people willing to take pay cuts to chase a ring.
If another star is in tow with KD, would it make more sense to keep Robinson and instead go after Beal? You could argue as much…but that’s the ultimate in picking nits. If either happens, the Knicks become title favorites instantly.
Is there a price too exorbitant for Davis if you’re knowingly pairing him with Durant…say, multiple future unprotected picks in addition to all the kids and Dallas picks? I suppose…but I’m honestly not sure what that would be.
The real question, however, is the one we’ve all been avoiding. The far more likely scenario isn’t that New York trades for Davis in full certainty of what happens in July, but exactly the opposite. We have to ask: assuming New Orleans wants to make a deal, do you trade for AD on or before draft night when you have no guarantee from Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, or anyone else?
Assuming the rumblings that KD requires a second star to sign on the dotted line, it sets up the ultimate game of chicken.
Look around. Kemba Walker is eligible for the Supermax and went on record recently saying a fifth year would mean a lot to him and that Charlotte is his top choice. The Kyrie to Brooklyn noise is getting louder, and the Nets just cleared the necessary cap space to sign him outright. David Thorpe from True Hoop reported in their newsletter recently that Kawhi has already agreed to go back to Toronto on a short term deal. No one thinks Klay is going anywhere.
Jimmy Butler is the ultimate wildcard. No one knows what he’ll do, but it became clear in the playoffs that he is easily Philly’s second most important player, and if he leaves, so do their realistic chances of contending. They and they alone have the ability to offer him a fifth year.
Add it all up and what are we left with: a situation where Kevin Durant comes to the table and says “I’ll come if you can get me a sidekick” and the Knicks are left helpless. Would they offer a max deal to Khris Middleton or Tobias Harris? Would those guys take it? Would that be wise, even if it nets them KD? Would one of them be enough to entice him?
The way things are shaping up, the Knicks’ safest route ironically doubles as their most dangerous one: go all in on Davis.
Theoretically, he is the best chance they have of sealing the deal with Durant, and if they seal the deal with Durant, they in turn seal the deal with Davis on a future in New York. Make that trade, and there’d be cap room left to spare to fill in a real roster around them.
Theoretically.
If they trade for Davis and somehow, some way, Durant says no, what then? They could be left, quite literally, with Davis and 14 empty roster spots. The clock would be ticking on AD’s possible departure before he even boarded the plane to get here. Worst of all, your asset base is gone. Tanking would not be an option. They’d be forced into scrambling to fill in a win-now roster around the Brow in an effort to sell him on staying. Really, now…how’s that going to go?
And couldn’t you just imagine if they included a future unprotected first to seal the deal with New Orleans and that scenario transpired. It would be the Isiah years all over again.
That is the doomsday scenario. And it is 100% in play.
Really, it all comes down to this: given the very likely situation where David Griffin wants to agree to the framework of a Davis trade before the draft, what will the Knicks know by June 20th? That single question is perhaps more important than any other in the NBA as everyone prepares for a summer where the league’s tectonic plates will shift in ways never before seen.
So here’s where I stand: if they know, with some modicum of certainty, that Davis nets them Durant, they must make every effort to complete the deal. Opportunities to acquire a superstar may not be as rare as they once were, but the ability to pair two stars of this magnitude simply cannot be counted on coming around again any time soon.
If they can’t make that determination, the risk outweighs the reward. In that case, you hold on to what you have and take your chances.
Does this path open up the possibility that they exit this summer with a roster full of young players and a few salary dumps from other teams spending the very dollars the Knicks hoped to splurge on premier talent? Absolutely. Would that sting? Absolutely. Could the front office live with itself knowing they had the ability to get a trump card which might have netted them Durant, only to balk because they couldn’t be certain it would work out that way? They’d probably be doing so as they sought other jobs. These stakes are legit.
But that’s the risk they’d have to take. They would still be leaving the Knicks incredibly well-positioned to pounce on the next star that became available. Building organically would still be an option. Maybe RJ Barrett really is capable of the heights some project for him. They’d have to hope he is that and more.
The cards have been dealt.
Place your bets.
Winner take all.
Thanks for reading, talk to you on Monday!