The Calm Before the Storm
The Knicks won a must-win game. Now it gets hard.
Any Marvel fans out there?
If so, you’ve probably already purchased Disney+ (how good is The Mandalorian, by the way? I need to adopt a Yoda…) and are eagerly anticipating the bevy of comic book shows coming our way starting next year.
Perhaps the one I’m most excited about is Marvel’s What If? The Premise is exactly like it sounds: we go back in time to key moments in the MCU, except relive them as if some important fact was different. “What if Thor went for the head,” for example, or “What if Captain America’s ass weren’t so firm?” (my wife would rather not imagine this one).
I thought about this premise last night as I was trying (as I often do) to put this Knicks season in perspective. Yesterday, I dwelled on the fact that it was difficult to focus on basketball with last week’s shenanigans so close in the rear view mirror. After last night, I wondered: What if that presser never happened? And to a lesser extent: What if Ntilikina gets a fingernail on that shot?
Imagine the Knicks were sitting at 5-9, on a three-game winning streak, and had (seemingly) nothing but good vibes flowing throughout the organization. Sure, they’d still be approaching the Infinity War portion of the schedule, but having already beat Dallas twice, they’d know they were capable of beating almost anyone.
Alas, we don’t live in that reality. But considering how this year has gone at times, the one we inhabit could certainly be worse this morning.
Let’s get to the game (PredictionStrike percentage & price stats in parenthesis after links)
One Big Thing
Knicks generating offense from defense
Of all the numbers about last night’s game that stood out, 32 to 4 is probably the most important.
That was the discrepancy in points off turnovers, with the Knicks forcing Cleveland into bad play after bad play. After last night, New York is averaging 8.4 steals per 100 possessions, which is sixth in the league. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks are also eighth in the NBA points per 100 possessions added through transition pays off of steals.
(The biggest help to that latter stat, by the way? RJ Barrett (-1%, $1.27/share), who is in the 89th percentile of all NBA players in adding points through transition plays off swipes. The rookie is quietly averaging 1.3 steals per game.)
All of this comes with playing an aggressive and at times overly hyperactive defense which David Futernick dubbed “the soft zone” on last night’s postgame podcast. It seems to blend zone, switching and trapping concepts, which makes some sense given New York’s personnel. If you squint hard enough, you can start to see the plan Perry and Mills put in place over a year ago - that the Knicks needed to get more athletic - in action.
It’s also a defense that requires good, quick decisions and constant effort. The BBall IQ of some players on this team leaves a bit to be desired, but perhaps that’s why they focused on D all throughout camp. The effort has mostly been present.
The biggest question at this point is whether it’s sustainable. On one hand, the Knicks gave up just 80 points in the first 42 minutes of action in both of their previous games. On the other hand, these were the 22nd and 23rd ranked offenses in the league, and this defense sprung major leaks late on both evenings (although last night’s extensive garbage time certainly adds some context).
At the end of the day, it’s an identity, which is something the Knicks haven’t had on defense in a long, long time. Let’s see how well it holds up after the next month, when the competition gets considerably tougher.
Stat of the Night
0
That’s how many vacancies are left of Frank Ntilikina Island just a month into the season.
To think: we were once willing to give out free show tickets and access to an all-you-can-eat pig roast just to sell time shares on this mofo. If you got in while you could, good for you. If you were here from the beginning and never left, please don’t be late for the board of governors meeting on Thursday night. We’re refurbishing the patio and need to vote on a type of wood.
Does this seem like an odd flex the morning after Frank (-5%, $0.22/share) scored all of six points on 3-of-7 shooting? Yeah, maybe…but at this point, if you aren’t seeing his impact on the game, you aren’t watching.
The numbers more than back up what is being seen by those of us who choose to use our eyes. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks score 5.8 more points per 100 possessions and give up 5.7 fewer when Ntilikina is on the court. The resulting plus 11.5 total is easily the best among Knicks who have seen at least 150 minutes.
(Marcus Morris (+8%, $3.17/share) is next at +8.1. Damyean Dotson(+1%, $14.64/share), I should note, is at +13.0, but in only 113 minutes of action. #FreeDot forever)
When Frank is on the court, the other four defenders know that if they can just do their job, there’s a good chance they won’t have to worry about cleaning up someone else’s mess. As a result, opponent free throws decrease by 7.8 freebies per 100 possessions when Ntilikina is on the court, which is in the 92nd percentile league-wide.
Instead of fouling, Frankie Smokes is swiping to the tune of 2.2 steals per 36 minutes, fifth among 149 NBA players who have seen at least 300 minutes of action. The four ahead of him? Those would be Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Jrue Holiday and Chris Paul. In other words, We Made It Fam.
He also knows when to push the pace. With Ntilikina on the court, the Knicks are scoring 4.8 more points per 100 possessions on transition plays (counting off of steals and live rebounds), which is in the 96th percentile (fun fact: best Knick for this stat? Bobby Portis (-2%, $0.56/share), who has been a transition demon to the tune of +8.2 ppp/transition. Run, Bobby, run!)
When the Knicks offense slows down? Frank is still helping there too. The Knicks assist percentage is 57.5 with Ntilikina on and 51.2 when he’s off, the difference between the 18th and 29th ranked teams in that category. For whatever he takes off the table individually, he adds in a team context.
Oh…and he just turned 21.
Please don’t be late for that meeting.
Made me Smile
Julius, breaking out
After the game last night, when asked about his starting power forward, David Fizdale noted that Julius Randle (+9%, $3.63/share) has been “a willing participant in his own improvement.” When discussing Randle’s process of watching film this year, Fiz used the analogy of a kid who kept burning his hand on a stove but wasn’t learning his lesson.
The narrative after last night will be clear: “lesson learned.” 30 points on 17 shots to go with four dimes and only one turnover will earn you that storyline. Is it true? Or was Randle just making shots from outside, thus preventing him from forcing the action down low, which is where he’s gotten into so much trouble?
It’s probably a little of both, but it’s worth noting: Randle’s eFG% over the last two seasons was .559, and even after last night, this season he’s only at .477. He’s going to start hitting more shots, and when he does, the offense should continue to get a massive lift:
Are there still some looks you’d rather he excised from his diet? Of course, but that’s the price of doing business with any of the league’s best offensive players, and as he reminded us last night (great highlight video from @TheKnicksWall, btw), Julius is capable of being one of the best offensive bigs in the NBA.
Randle needed last night in the worst way, and it should make every Knicks fan happy.
Final Thought
There’s a lot that’s still uncertain about this Knicks team - is the D real? Will Randle sustain this rise? Can the real DSJ please stand up? - but one thing seems to be solidified as the Knicks head into the stretch of games that will define their season:
The rotation feels set.
Would I like a little more Wayne Ellington (+100%, $2.92/share) somewhere in the mix? Yeah…but a consistent 10-man rotation just makes the most sense, and there’s no obvious choice for who should be out, at least not until players are eligible to be traded.
If this team is ever going to truly be on track, it’s going to need consistency as a core tenet. This is step one of that process. Let’s hope it’s here to stay.
Help Us Help Others!!!
Our Thanksgiving Drive is under way!
If you haven’t already, feel free to make a fun Knicks’ stat-related goal for yourself to make the giving all the more interesting, and then tweet it out to generate support from others.
Yesterday, I wrote that I’d donate $1 for every point Frank Ntilikina scores over the next four games. I realized that given his season average, this would leave me short of buying a full turkey dinner (every $35 feeds one family!), so I upped it to $2 a point. After last night, I’m thrilled to be on the hook for $12.
(In other news, my wife may have bankrupted us by agreeing to donate $1 for every Frankie tweet I fire off. Do Frank mentions in this newsletter count? Because if so, we may need to take out a second mortgage and/or put our daughter to work sweeping chimneys…)
Anyway, do your part and help us raise money for a great cause! It appears none other than Mike Breen did his part today in a big way, and if he can get in on the action, so can you!
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Check out Alex Wolfe’s first game story for SI.com! He’s going to be fantastic covering this team, as this piece clearly shows.
In Alex’s absence, China Joe Flynn puts his own unique flair on the P&T wrap up.
Marc Berman wrote about how the mood around the Knicks has changed considerably in the last week, and Stef Bondy has all your key Julius Randle quotes in his wrap up.
Lastly, Posting & Toasting checks in on the Westchester Knicks before their game last night, in which Iggy Brazdeikis had 36 points:
On This Date: Knicks beat Vancouver Grizzlies in inaugural matchup
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
The 1995-96 season marked the inaugural season for the Vancouver Grizzlies. November 19th marked their first matchup against the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden. In the 98-93 Knicks victory, Derek Harper led the team with 25 points, 5 assists, and 4 steals. Patrick Ewing had a double double with 13 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 blocks.
That’s it for today…see everyone tomorrow!