The Fightin' Knicks
They are who we thought they were. Maybe. Kind of.
In this newsletter:
The New York Knicks have now played five games under new head coach Mike Miller. There’s no set formula for figuring out how long the New Coach Bump is supposed to last in a situation like this, but it feels like we’re getting close to being at the bottom of that hill.
In short, maybe this is the Knicks team we thought we were getting all along. Under Miller, they’ve been both the 21st-ranked offense and the 21st-ranked defense in the NBA with an overall net rating of minus 5.6, which puts them in the “respectably bad, but barely” category of the league. That the first of his games came without a single practice and the last four were part of an always grueling West Coast swing should also go in his and the team’s favor. He gets blame for seeing his team get down big early, but credit for instilling the fight in them to keep coming back.
What does all of this mean, in terms of the larger conversation about the team, the direction it should go with the roster this season, the direction they should go with the front office in the offseason, and whether this front office has any right to be the ones making those roster decisions this season? These are all valid questions, none of which have a concrete answer.
If you’re interested in that discussion, click here and check out the pod I recorded with Jeremy Cohen after the game last night, in which we get into everything from how they should approach trade season to what they should give up for Masai Ujiri.
I’m not going to touch on any of that here though. Instead, I’m going to continue to keep focus on the team we’re seeing before us on the court, because in the end, that kind of matters too.
Let’s get to the categories…
One Big Thing
Winning (sometimes) with defense
Over the last eight days, the Knicks faced three teams that currently occupy a playoff spot in one of their respective conferences. In the second halves of those games, they’ve given up 43, 47 and 44 points, respectively.
If you’re looking for a sign that things are coming together under a new coach, and that maybe, just maybe, all the “dawgs” stuff from the offseason wasn’t a complete load of hooey, there you go.
It’s still not perfect. Over the last five games, the team faced only one truly elite offensive initiator in Damian Lillard, and he was wiping the floor with their innards before the end of the first quarter. Jamal Murray was instrumental in helping put the game away last night, Buddy Hield treated them like a rag doll for a half on Friday and even D’Angelo Russell had his moments.
But guys like that are always going to find success. Just as you can’t ignore the Knicks inability to handle such players when they get going, you also can’t judge them only on that aspect of their performance. By and large, the identity of Mike Miller’s Westchester teams - elite defensive units that occasionally bent but rarely broke - is starting to take shape here.
And it’s only been five games. Over those five, the Knicks are becoming the team David Fizdale wanted them to be but for one reason or another couldn’t get them there. Under Miller, New York has given up the third lowest frequency of opponent looks at the paint and the 12th lowest frequency of corner threes. Thanks to this favorable shot profile, according to Cleaning the Glass, the expected effective field goal percentage of their opponents (based on average conversion rate per shot location league-wide) is 51.5 percent, which is third best in the NBA over this recent stretch. That means teams are hitting shots that just based on the location of those shots, most teams wouldn’t be hitting.
It’s all trending in the right direction. Of course, it could still get much, much better, starting with…
Humble Suggestion
Let Mitch be Mitch
For three straight defensive possessions early in the second quarter, Mitchell Robinson did his best Enes Kanter impersonation, watching as different Nuggets players broke contain and streaked down the lane unimpeded, finishing each time with a layup or dunk. It was staggering to watch, his feet glued to the floor like Wolverine walking into a street fight and proceeding to demand mediation.
This clearly was not the response of his choosing. Mitch came into this year talking about averaging five blocks per game. He loves to swat. He lives to swat.
He also knows he can’t swat anything from the bench, which is something I’m sure the coaching staff is reminding him of every day.
But there is a balance to be achieved here, and what we saw in the first half sure ‘ain’t it. The entire reason Mitch needs to stay on the floor (as the advanced statistics have shown since he entered the league) is because the mere threat of his rim protection makes them a vastly better team.
Yet when he came in last night, the Knicks were down two. When he left, they were down 15, having given up 27 points in just under seven and a half minutes. The ’87 Lakers shouldn’t be able to score 27 points in seven and a half minutes against a team with Mitchell Robinson on the court.
Sure enough, after that initial stint, Mitch started to go after guys around the rim. He played just over 18 minutes the rest of the game and the Knicks and Nuggets were nearly even over that time. He picked up his usual allotment of fouls, but at least he was there, lurking, forcing Denver to think twice before they entered the paint. It was a huge part of spurring their comeback, and if anyone on this team could create a bucket for themselves late, it probably would have led to a win, thanks in large part to plays like this:
Let Mitch be Mitch. The growing process will be painful at times, but that’s what this season is supposed to be about. Keeping him on the floor at the expense of his very identity is not the answer.
Made me Smile
Most people will point to this as their favorite play by Kevin Knox (who was referred to as an irredeemable bust by John Hollinger last week) from last night…
…and that would be fine. Knox has averaged barely an assist per game through the 101 games he’s played as a pro, and part of his becoming a useful NBA player is showing the ability to be a productive offensive force even when he’s not scoring. The touch on this pass is extremely encouraging in that regard.
It also wasn’t the most important thing about his night. Knox could morph into James Harden on offense and he’d still have been a net negative on some nights because his defense has been that bad on occasion this season.
And there was Knox playing nine straight minutes in the second half, and during that time the Nuggets only scored 13 points. It wasn’t all pretty, but it did include plays like this:
(Sorry for the blips on this clip, but Knox playing even passable defense nearly broke my laptop)
It wasn’t all pretty. Knox here goes under the screen, which he shouldn’t do against Barton, and which got him earlier in the quarter when he was guarding Gary Harris.
But he was also being used as a shooting guard for much of his second half stint, which is the most insane thing of all of the insane things in the world (seriously…who within the organization thinks this is a good idea that needs to continue being trotted out?), and the mere fact that he didn’t get wiped out of the play here after the pick was set counts as progress.
He still needs to be far more aware off the ball, but playing more at the four should help, and if and when the team trades Marcus Morris, that should absolutely happen.
Baby steps. But steps nonetheless.
Stat of the Night
4
That’s how many steals Frank Ntilikina had in Denver, to go along with 13 points (on six shots, mind you), four dimes, and five boards. It’s the sixth time in 25 games he’s had three or more swipes, and as usual, they don’t remotely capture the full impact of his presence on defense.
Frank has had a rough stretch on offense of late, but last night was a reminder that this season has 100 percent been a step forward for him.
My suspicion is that smart teams will finally come calling for Ntilikina, if they haven’t already. He is hitting just about one of every three triples he attempts on 2.6 looks per game. If he brings this level of defense (spoiler alert: he will) and can hit long balls at this rate, he will be an asset to a team looking to win right now, even if it is only in certain situations.
To whomever is making decisions for this team from now until the trade deadline: resist the temptation. These are the players you keep around and who you look back on as the initial seeds that sprung something greater. He will only look better when surrounded by better shooters and drivers, when his glaring weaknesses will become less glaring.
Keep Ntilikina in New York, and don’t for the love of God bring in another point guard to take his minutes. He is part of the solution, not the problem.
Oh by the way…
Marcus Morris and Elfrid Payton were awesome last night. Julius Randle wasn’t half-bad either - and that includes his going 1-for-6 from deep. If even one of those last five goes in, it makes it at least a passable evening shooting-wise, and this team has so few good options when opponents lock in (short of keeping Mook, trading Randle and giving all his time to the few shooters this team has, but I digress…)
Anyway, I just wanted to point this out. We all care about the kids, and rightly so. But when the vets have good games, which they did yesterday, it deserves to be mentioned at the very least.
Final Thought
I’m excited to watch this team again. The offense is still a mess far too often, and they still don’t have anyone who can generate a good look when a game gets tight. But I’m not sure that any front office was going to be able to get a guy who could do that, not this summer at least, not after they were spurned by You Know Who.
Now we have to wait and see whether (and if so, how soon) the Knicks will be sellers. Conventional wisdom says it’s the smart position to take sooner rather than later. We’ll see what they decide to do, probably sooner than we think.
Player Spotlight
Quick one today, just to give a shout out to our man Elf. In the 225 minutes he has played this year, the Knicks - yes, the Knicks - are outscoring their opponents. That is too big a sample size to simply ignore.
The point here is that he is going to keep playing, and in all liklihood, will keep playing in New York. He is exactly the type of player who increases player development on the floor, and for that reason alone, he’s worth keeping around (plus I can’t imagine anyone is giving up a first for him)
His PredictionStrike trading price is currently at $0.63, up 5% after yesterday’s game. That means if you click here and use code KFS, you could get 15 shares of Elfrid Payton stock right now for absolutely nothing thanks to the $10 you’ll get for free upon signing up.
After starting the year at $2.49 and sinking as low as $0.59, there’s no better time to get in than right now.
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Jeff Van Gundy, who might be giving advice to his future employers, says the Knicks need to be more patient with their coaches.
The price for Masai will likely start at two first round picks. Like I said at the top, Jeremy and I went into this in great detail at the end of the podcast that’s available right now. Give a listen. In short, I struggle to imagine a price too high to get Ujiri in the building, although it may not be for the reasons you think.
Amar’e is trying to get back in the league. Good for him.
On This Date: Knicks-Nuggets Brawl and Patrick Ewing becomes Knicks all-time leading scorer
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
A game that was seemingly heading into a blowout loss for the Knicks turned into one of the most infamous days in team history. With 1:15 left in the game and the Nuggets up 19, Knick rookie Mardy Collins flagrantly fouled future Knicks JR Smith by the neck as he was driving to the hoop for a dunk.
That’s it for today…see everyne tomorrow morning!