The Home Stretch

Today we look at what's at stake in the final week before diving deep on New York's four most likely first round opponents.

Good morning! The Knicks play their final road game of the season tonight, heading to Atlanta for a game with big playoff implications, as we’ll get to below. New York has a clean injury report while the Hawks backup center Jock Landale is out.

Setting Up the Final Week

We start off the final week of the regular season with a request from KFS subscriber AHT:

Was it last season or a few seasons ago that you would feature in your article the Knicks playoff position and potential matchups? I’d like to see that again please. Thanks.

Ask and you shall receive!

As we enter the final home stretch, its hard to remember a year where this much was still up in the air.

For starters, we don’t know where the Knicks will finish. They are still (barely) alive for the second seed in the East, but also have a chance to finish fourth even though they hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland.

Even more than that uncertainty, the real intrigue lies on the other end of the bracket. Going into play on Sunday, the only certainty from spots 5 through 10 was that the Hawks could not finish tenth. We got a bit more certainty with yesterday’s results, but with just seven days left, there are no less than six potential first round playoff opponents for the Knicks. Given how often these teams play each other in the final week, even trying to speculate about potential matchups seems fraught:

Today we’ll try to sort through some of this confusion, and go through four of New York’s potential first round opponents in greater detail to highlight some reasons why we should (or shouldn’t) be rooting for a particular matchup. Before we get to those four, a quick word on the two teams I won’t be deep diving today: the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic.

The two Florida teams currently occupy the ninth and tenth spots in the East, and Basketball Reference gives each of them less than a two percent chance to rise out of the play-in bracket. Given than BBRef.com also gives the Knicks less than a four percent chance to grab the two seed, we’ll save our energy for the teams in spots 5-8. That said, two things to note:

• Ever since Bam & Spo tested the basketball gods in his 83-point game, Miami has had the fourth worst defense in the NBA. Next time, maybe don’t fuck with Kobe.

• Not that anyone would notice because they were left for dead weeks ago, but the Magic got Franz Wagner back this week. He’s been on a minutes restriction, but the theoretical starting five for Orlando is finally whole, although Anthony Black remains out.

One note before we begin: while all records and current seeds are fully updated, all stats are from before yesterday’s games. They are courtesy of NBA.com unless otherwise indicated.

Atlanta Hawks - 45-33, 5th place

• Knicks record: 1-1 with one game remaining (Total Point Differential: Knicks -9)

• Last three seasons: Knicks up 6-4

• Most recent playoff matchup: 2021 first round (Hawks won 4-1)

• 13th in offense, 9th in defense, 11th in net rating

The NBA’s ultimate Rorschach test right now resides in Atlanta, where at 19-3, the Hawks have the league’s third best record since the All-Star break (trailing only the Thunder and Spurs), and with a positive 12.2 differential, the third best net rating (trailing San Antonio and Charlotte).

Their top wins in that time? Well that’s where things get dicey. They beat Boston at home, but the Celtics were missing Tatum and Neemias Queta (who has quietly become indispensable for them) and Jaylen Brown had a nightmare shooting game. They’re also responsible for one of the Pistons’ two losses since Cade went down (OKC has the other), and they did so in Detroit. Other than that, they have two wins against the Sixers without Joel Embiid or Paul George, two wins against the plummeting Magic, one win against the banged up Warriors, one win against the Blazers without Deni Avdija or Shaedon Sharpe, and 11 wins against lotto teams.

I won’t say too much more about the Hawks, only because we’ll be getting a front row seat for them tonight, but there are a few things worth noting:

• Atlanta is top-10 on offense and defense in both 3-point frequency and accuracy. They take threes, make threes, don’t let you shoot threes, and guard the threes you do take. That’s a scary proposition.

• Dyson Daniels absolutely gives Jalen Brunson fits. In four of the six games they’ve faced each other since Daniels was traded to Atlanta, Brunson has taken three or fewer free throws. He’s also attempted 8.0 threes per game, up from his two-year average of 6.7. Brunson knows heavy lifting awaits him once he steps foot inside the arc, especially with Nickeil Alexander-Walker in Atlanta as well.

• Speaking of NAW, the Hawks’ starting five with him, Daniels, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu has outscored opponents by 25.2 points per 100 possessions. That’s second only to Charlotte among five-man groups that have played at least 330 possessions this season.

• Part of the reason they’ve become so hard to guard despite the presence of Dyson Daniels (20-for-110 from deep this season) is Onyeka Okongwu’s emergence as a legit deep threat. Okongwu, you’ll remember, killed the Knicks from long range back in late December, and is the only center in the NBA currently attempting at least five 3-pointers a game while shooting over 37 percent from deep and 60 percent on twos. This series would put KAT through the ringer.

Add it all up, and with the possible exception of Charlotte, Atlanta is easily the opponent who should garner the most respect from the Knicks. That’s what makes the final week of the season so fascinating.

If the Knicks lose tonight, not only does that solidify the Hawks’ position in fifth, but it could drop New York into a tie with Cleveland for fifth assuming the Cavs take care of business tonight in Memphis. After that, Cleveland and Atlanta play each other two straight times on Wednesday and Friday. If the Cavs win both, they would presumably finish the season at 53-29 since the end with a home game against the Wizards. If the Knicks lost to the Hawks, they would need to go 3-0 down the stretch to avoid falling to fourth…but falling to fourth might actually help them avoid Atlanta in this scenario. Alternatively, if the Hawks beat the Cavs twice, they’d secure fifth place while all but ensuring the Knicks finish third. They could also split the two games, in which case tonight’s result will loom large in determining who plays who in the first round.

We just don’t know how.

Philadelphia 76ers - 43-35, 6th place

• Knicks record: 2-2 (Total Point Differential: Knicks +32)

• Last three seasons: Knicks up 9-3

• Most recent playoff matchup: 2024 first round (Knicks won 4-2)

• 16th in offense, 17th in defense, 18th in net rating

Just looking at the numbers, the Sixers would appear to be the most thoroughly mediocre team in the NBA.

But wait, you’re wondering…aren’t they a different animal when their main guys are healthy and playing?

Funny you bring that up, because in the 339 minutes that all four of Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, Paul George and V.J. Edgecomb have played together, the Sixers go from a team with a negative 0.2 net rating, good for 18th in the NBA, to…

A team with a negative 0.3 net rating, good for 19th in the NBA.

From that perspective, the myth that this is some sleeping giant just waiting to get healthy sort of falls apart.

And yet…

Maxey is in the midst of an All-NBA campaign, George is averaging 26, 7 & 4 on 50/44/79 shooting splits since his return from suspension, Edgecomb (21, 5 & 5 on 53/45/84 over his last nine) has blasted through the rookie wall, and Joel F*cking Embiid shows flashes of his MVP self whenever he can actually stay on the court.

So why isn’t this team better? Two reasons: the depth just isn’t there (Kelly Oubre Jr is their only reliable role player as Quentin Grimes’ shooting has fallen off and Jared McCain now inexplicably plays in Oklahoma City), and much like the Knicks, their four best players don’t elevate each other in all the ways you’d hope.

Does that mean the Knicks should be dying to play them? I wouldn’t go that far, only because the Sixers will probably talent their way to a few wins in any series, which is more than we might be able to say for another team on this list. I also don’t think Philly fears New York, and might have a slight “we owe you one” edge in a series.

But from a matchup perspective, the Sixers don’t take away opposing threes, don’t take a ton of threes themselves, and aren’t particularly good at making the ones they attempt. That’s a bad combo against the Knicks.

Toronto Raptors - 43-35, 7th place

• Knicks record: 4-0 (Total Point Differential: Knicks +81)

• Last three seasons: Knicks up 12-0

• Most recent playoff matchup: 2001 first round (Raptors won 3-2)

• 16th in offense, 7th in defense, 12th in net rating

New York’s dominance is undisputed. The only question is “why?”

The easy answer is that the Raptors have a very clear ceiling, and it doesn’t elevate them into the upper stratosphere of the NBA. They are 7-21 against teams with a top-10 net rating. That record ranks ahead of only eight teams, all of which are in the lottery.

The problem seems to be their offense, which is incredibly dependent on transition opportunities. No team in the league runs more after live rebounds, and they’re fourth in transition plays after steals.

But even that doesn’t fully explain New York’s robust record in this series. The Knicks have been exceptional at limiting opposing transition plays (fourth stingiest, according to Cleaning the Glass), but teams who do run on them score at the fifth highest rate in the NBA. More than that, the Raptors’ half-court offense isn’t terrible (11th, per CTG).

You’d think it might have something to do with the fact that the Raptors are bottom-10 in both 3-point frequency and 3-point accuracy, and that the formula for beating the Knicks is to gouge them from deep, but the Pistons are bottom-10 in the same two categories and we know how those games have gone.

I think the ultimate answer for why this matchup has been so one-sided is two-fold:

1. This is a team New York feels very comfortable playing because they know they can beat the Raptors in any number of ways. All five Knick starters have had huge games this season against Toronto. They’ve won games by dominating the offensive glass, forcing turnovers, bombing away from deep, killing it from inside the arc, and getting to the line. Even if the Raps keep it close (like they did for 40 or so minutes in early March), New York doesn’t fear them.

2. In the four games Toronto has played the Knicks, not once have the Raptors shot above 30 percent from deep. New York is 23-0 this season when their opponent shoots under 32 percent from long range.

All things considered, as much as we should be careful what we wish for, this is probably the matchup Knick fans should be rooting for the most.

Charlotte Hornets - 43-36, 8th place

• Knicks record: 2-1 with one game remaining (Total Point Differential: Knicks +32)

• Last three seasons: Knicks up 8-2

• Most recent playoff matchup: 1997 first round (Knicks won 3-0)

• 5th in offense, 12th in defense, 6th in net rating

Don’t look now, but there’s a world where the final game of the season determines whether or not the Hornets play the Knicks in the first round.

Here’s how this could happen:

• Charlotte beats Boston and Detroit in their next two games to go into next Sunday with a record of 45-36.

• Toronto splits their two games against Miami and loses to the Knicks, putting them at 44-35 heading into their season finale vs the Nets.

• The Sixers lose their next two games at San Antonio and Houston, meaning that even if they win their last two against the Pacers and Bucks, they’d finish 45-36.

In that scenario, a win in the final game of the season would give Charlotte the six seed, although it might also drop the Knicks down to four depending on how the next six days go.

If the Hornets lose to Boston or Detroit, however, they’d need to count on the Sixers not only losing to the Spurs and Rockets, but also to one of the tanking teams at the end of the season. Philly owns the tiebreaker over Charlotte regardless of whether they finish in a two-way tie or a three-way tie with the Raptors.

And if you’re thinking of potential chicanery for New York’s upcoming game against Toronto (i.e., the Knicks lose that game to help the Raptors move up to six ahead of the Hornets), the only way the Knicks could clinch the third seed by that game is if they go 2-0 against the Hawks and Celtics and the Cavs lose to either the Grizzlies or Hawks.

And why should the Knicks (and frankly every other East team) be hoping to avoid this first round matchup?

For one, Charlotte’s heir year-long net rating is higher than that of the Nuggets, Wolves, Cavs and Rockets - four teams that allegedly have more championship equity than they do. They still have the league’s best net rating since January 1, with the NBA’s top offense and fourth best defense since that date. Only the top two seeds in each conference have a better record than Charlotte in 2026.

They are 30-7 with their current starting five of Ball, Knueppel, Bridges, Miller and Diabate, and five of those seven losses have come when they’ve made a third or fewer of their threes. Most have come against top teams.

The only thing that needs to be said about them is they’re the most dangerous lower seeded Eastern conference team in recent memory, and no one - the Knicks included - should be excited to face them.

Last note: if the Hawks win tonight and Boston beats Charlotte on Tuesday, the Celtics will have wrapped up the second seed going into Thursday’s game. Would one or both teams rest any starters as a result? Your guess is as good as mine.

Only one thing is certain: this thing is absolutely going down to the wire.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”