The Knicks Fade as RJ Reigns

New York's futile march to the finish line continues, but a major bright spot continues to emerge.

Good morning, and welcome to the beginning of the end. Just about a quarter of the season is left, and while New York’s play-in hopes have all but faded, there are still important developments happening, starting with a 21-year-old star in the making who continues to give us something to root for. Much more on him, and everything else of relevance from this weekend’s action, below.

Weekend Recap

Knicks 100, Heat 115

Friday night’s game was about one man and one man only: Rowan Alexander Barrett Jr. RJ scored a career high 46 points, including 30 in the first half, and was aided greatly by 22 trips to the free throw line. He’d have had his first 50-spot if he could have converted more than just 14, but we’ll take what we can get.

As for the game, New York got out to a 10-0 start but was quickly brought down to earth by an 18-3 Heat run midway through the half. Thanks in large part to Barrett, the Knicks kept things close, including making it a one-point game with under a minute to go in the third, but RJ ran out of gas and the Heat dominated the fourth, 25-15, en route an easy victory.

Knicks 109, Sixers 125

In a Sunday matinee, New York looked outclassed in multiple ways throughout most of this one. Their lack of a point guard has never loomed larger than during a five-minute stretch of the second quarter when they committed eight turnovers, almost all of which were of the sloppy, live-ball variety. Making matters more difficult, the game was being called tight and Joel Embiid strode to the free throw line 27 times, making 23. James Harden also had the Knicks’ number, amassing a 29-point, 16 assist triple double on just 14 shots. They had no answer for either man.

And yet despite all of the above, thanks to some timely threes by Evan Fournier (24 points, 9-for-16 overall, 6-of-11 from deep) and Immanuel Quickley (21, 5-for-13, 3-of-7 from deep), the Knicks had a brief fourth quarter lead and were within a point with just over six to go. Philly then scored 19 of the game’s final 23 points as the offense yet again sputtered down the stretch, and New York’s stretch of futility reached five straight and 15 of 18.

Standing Check In

Thanks to the Pistons upsetting Charlotte last night, the Knicks exited the weekend 4.5 games back from both the Hornets and Hawks for the 9th and 10th seeds:

With just 21 games to go though and a seven-game road trip about to begin, things aren’t exactly looking up.

And in the standings that a far greater portion of the fan base is beginning to show interest in, the Knicks were aided by a Pacers win, and are now just 4.5 games “back” of the fifth spot in the lottery, with Sacramento, San Antonio and New Orleans in spots six though nine.

Banged Up

Quentin Grimes, who has been one of the bright spots of this season, suffered a subluxation of his right patella almost immediately after he checked into the game on Friday night. After some initially feared the injury would keep him out for the rest of the season, the team said on Saturday night he will be re-evaluated in two weeks. As Stef Bondy reported, he was seen walking around and dribbling without a limp yesterday at MSG.

The other major injury news comes regarding someone who has already spent a ton of time on the shelf this season: Nerlens Noel.

The news came out in a roundabout way. Jericho Sims, after playing 18 minutes on Friday, had seemingly been inserted into the rotation ahead of his veteran counterparts, perhaps as the beginnings of a youth movement. But as Mitchell Robinson and Jericho Sims found themselves in severe foul trouble yesterday and Tom Thibodeau resorted to 13 minutes of Julius Randle at the five, it was curious that neither Taj Gibson nor Nerlens Noel checked into the game.

Sure enough, as first reported by Stef Bondy, Noel is dealing with plantar fasciitis. Ian Begley later reported that the injury flared up against Utah on February 7, and that while he’s technically available, he is not close to 100 percent. Speaking of his replacement…

🐶 Dog House 🏚

Bringing an oldie but a goodie back for two men who more than deserve it.

First up, Julius Randle, who is making my first prediction from Friday’s column look especially reckless. He combined to shoot 6-of-28 from the field, and although he racked up some gaudy assist and rebound totals, he’s once again showing an indifference on the defensive end that would be tough for any team to overcome.

The most frustrating part is that it’s rarely an outright lack of effort that does Randle in (although those moments have been present, to be sure); instead, it’s the sort of awareness issues that he seemed to do away with last year by being fully locked in so much more than he ever had been.

Even as his offensive numbers reverted to 2020-21 form in the weeks leading up to the break, the defense has never truly rebounded, and in games like we saw this weekend, his presence on the court so often leads to frustration. The decision-making on some of these plays is simply mind-boggling.

. @defnotnailuJ

This one might be the most egregious mistake all game. Randle follows up the brick on a wide open corner 3 for the tie with a childish attempt at a steal, which leads directly to an Embiid dunk. 5 point swing.

It’s not just him. Evan Fournier was equally bad on defense this weekend and has been for much of this season, and the numbers tell the story and then some on Kemba Walker. Other have had stretches that stand out for the wrong reasons.

But no one does it with the maddening consistency of Randle, which brings us to the man he’ll forever be tied to when this era of Knicks basketball is told years from now: Tom Thibodeau.

I’ve been a Thibs defender all season, mostly because there’s so much we don’t know about what’s been happening behind the scenes, and because it’s really, really hard to win when your best player is this inconsistent. Thibs is but one reason the team is losing, and I remain unconvinced a different coach would have done better with the myriad issues this team has faced.

Fred Katz @FredKatz

Knicks since Jan. 16: • 3-15 record (worst in the NBA) • 106.6 points per 100 possessions (28th) • 113.4 points allowed per 100 (20th) • Minus-6.8 point differential per 100 (26th)

But the best argument for continuing to believe in Thibodeau - that he keeps the team competitive and playing the right away, even in the face of adversity - is hard to make with a straight face in light of how the last month has gone. Consistency was his greatest attribute when he won Coach of the Year, but it has been his undoing this season. Old reliables continue to falter and several unknowns (Starting Quickley? Playing Deuce? Limiting veteran minutes to more manageable loads? Going small more often?) look more and more appealing in comparison with each passing defeat.

As the season slips away with Alec Burks playing 34 minutes a night this weekend as an unsatisfactory default at point guard, it’s hard not to wonder: how bad could the alternative options really be?

💫 Stars of the Weekend 💫

⭐️ Jericho Sims: Two games, 36 minutes, not a single point, and no doubt in my mind he’s deserving of this most prestigious honor.

Sims may be a rookie, but he certainly doesn’t play like one. He’s barely six months younger than Mitchell Robinson thanks to playing all four years at Texas, and there’s a consistent physicality to his game that can occasionally be missing with his starting counterpart.

The rook is far more sound than a 58th pick has any right to be, and because of that, he’s more than earned the right to be seeing time in these games, regardless of the health of Nerlens Noel. Sims was ultimately no match for Joel Embiid yesterday, fouling out in 18 minutes, but he was anything but a pushover. His energy was the best thing the Knicks had going for them in this game, and it’s not an accident that they outscored Philly in his minutes - a claim that none of his teammates can make.

14 rebounds in 36 minutes of weekend action isn’t bad either.

⭐️ ⭐️ Immanuel Quickley: Sell your IQ stock at your own risk.

Quickley has had the year from hell. Never in a million years could anyone who watched him last year have imagined he’d be shooting under 33 percent from deep, but here we are. And yet, despite his one seemingly unshakable skill being shaken to the core, he continues to go out and play with the same mentality every time he steps foot on the court.

This was the sequence of the game, in which RJ Barrett converted a fast break opportunity right before Quickley stole the inbounds from an unsuspecting James Harden (while fooling the MSG camera crew in the process) and then draining a corner three to bring the Knicks within one. It was a reminder that despite his shooting struggles, Quickley’s confidence hasn’t wavered, even if his joy for the game seemingly has at times.

That last part is usually a recipe for dogging it on defense, but not for IQ. That’s why my favorite play of his came a few moments before the above conversation, when Furkan Korkmaz was preparing to line up a wide open three and Quick came from halfway across the court to at least make him think twice about it:

That’s Quickley in a nutshell. His efficiency may be in a low patch, but his effort can never be questioned.

A few minutes later, after RJ does a nice job tilting the defense off its axis a bit, IQ takes full advantage of Danny Green being slightly off kilter to hit the hole for a pretty conversion and the and-one:

Quickley isn’t an advantage creator on the perimeter, and he’s always going to need to play with more talented teammates if he wants to get his points around the rim. That’s fine; everyone has a role, and this should be his. It’s more than enough for him to get a shot as the starting point guard on this team before the end of this season. His 21 points yesterday were the second highest total he’s had in 56 games. Hopefully he gets an earnest chance to surpass it a few more times before Game 82.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ RJ Barrett: Yeah….I’d say this was an easy call.

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The Evolution of RJ Barrett

Before we get into the nitty gritty, some facts and figures about RJ Barrett’s career game on Friday night:

• The third 21-or-under player ever to get 46 points, nine rebounds and attempt 22 free throws, joining Rick Barry (who put up 57 & 15 against the Knicks in 1965) and Kevin Durant (46 & 15 against the Clippers in 2009).

• The second youngest Knick to score at least 40 points in a game, joining Carl Braun, who put up 47 at the age of 20 way back on December 6, 1947, 25 years before RJ’s dad was born.

• The youngest Knick ever to attempt at least 22 free throws, and only the seventh Knick to take as many in a game, joining Bernard King (4 times), Patrick Ewing (3x), Richie Guerin (3x), Bob McAdo, Walt Bellamy and Braun.

• 10th youngest player ever to attempt at least 22 free throws in a game, joining LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Ben Simmons, John Drew, Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony and Blake Griffin. In those games, only Booker, KD and LeBron scored more than Barrett’s 46.

• And finally, my personal favorite: RJ is tied for the second shortest 21-or-under player to score 46 while also pulling down nine rebounds, following Isiah Thomas and tied with Michael Jordan.

There’s a few ways we can go about dissecting Barrett’s night, but I think the place to start has to be with the free throws. On one hand, it remains incredibly annoying that he misses so many of these, nailing just 14 of the 22 he attempted. Over the last five seasons, of the 52 times a player has taken at least 20 freebies in a game, only five have shot a lower percentage, and all of them were being fouled strategically: Dwight Howard twice, Giannis Antetokounmpo twice and Ben Simmons.

This has to improve. The good news is that RJ seems to have the work ethic and then some to make sure it does. His form on threes is also encouraging. He’s now up to 35.8 percent on the season, and 38.2 percent on 6.2 attempts per game over his last 22 outings. This is even more encouraging considering Barrett has already taken three times as many pull-up threes this season as he did all of last year.

Those last 22 games are also where his free throw volume has started to pop. Over his first 28 games, Barrett was getting to the line just 3.4 times in 30.7 minutes of action per night. Since New Year’s Eve though, that number has more than doubled to 7.3 attempts in 36.5 minutes. His consistency has been the key. Again, looking back at his first 28 games, he make two or fewer trips to the line a dozen times. In his last 21, it’s just three, while he’s gotten to the stripe at least four times in the other 18 games.

This uptick in volume has Barrett 10th in the NBA in free throw attempts per game since New Year’s Eve, right behind the doppelganger he squared off with on Friday night:

Seeing Barrett’s name alongside Butler’s here after watching them face off in the Garden harkened back to a moment that occurred between the two a little more than a year ago:

Rit Holtzman @BenRitholtzNBA

2) I loved this sequence during RJs matchup with Butler on 2/9 - RJ makes a great cut, but doesn’t initiate contact and Butler gets the clean strip. You can see Butler afterward telling RJ to get into his body. RJ clearly soaking in the advice. He’s on his way (10 FTs last game)

That Heat game was back on February 9, 2021. In the nine games leading up to it, Barrett attempted just 21 free throws total, including four games with no attempts. Seeing him surpass that nine-game total in one night is more than a little encouraging, especially since he seems to be taking Butler’s advice to heart.

It started almost right from the opening tip.

For the brief moment I thought a Julius Randle-for-De’Aaron Fox trade actually had a chance of happening, the thing that had me most excited was that RJ Barrett would get a chance to play with perhaps the fastest starting point guard in the league. Of all the areas of his game he’s grown in since his rookie year, his transition play isn’t an obvious one, but the growth has been steady and noticeable.

As a rookie, Barrett scored just 0.94 points per possession in transition, which was in the bottom 20 percent of players league-wide. Last year, that rose to 1.11 PPP with only a slight dip in frequency, but he still turned the ball over on 11 percent of all such possessions, which was tied for 30th among 59 players averaging at least three transition possessions per game.

This season, that turnover number has gone down to 7.4 percent, the third lowest figure among 53 such players in 2021-22. Add in a shooting foul frequency that ranks 5th, an and-one frequency that ranks ninth and an average of 4.2 transition possessions that ranks 7th, and the only think separating RJ from the kings of the fast break (Giannis and LeBron) is slightly below average efficiency (1.07 PPP, compared to 1.18 and 1.19 for the other two). He’s getting there.

But his foul-drawing on Friday night wasn’t just limited to transition opportunities.

We know by now that allowing Barrett to go left is a swift death sentence for most defenders. Poor little Gabe Vincent falls into that category.

In the past, switching defenses like the Heat caused serious issues for Barrett because they rarely allowed him to get the runway he needed to gain a head of steam going downhill. Not so here. Miami willingly gives up the initial switch, moving Butler onto IQ and leaving Vincent on RJ. The great wrinkle here is the timing, placement, and most of all, the execution of the Jericho Sims screen, which dislodges the defender (what a concept!) just enough for Barrett to turn the corner. Meanwhile, Omer Yurtseven doesn’t feel comfortable abandoning Sims, who is both a lob threat and able to put the ball on the floor for a dribble or two if need be.

After the Heat game but before the matchup with Philly, I preemptively wrote that I’d expect more and more defenses to challenge RJ by committing the help and forcing him to pass back to the trailer. Well, guess what we saw less than 90 seconds into Sunday’s action:

No offense to Mitch, but imagine Barrett with a screen and roll partner who was a threat to do something with the ball besides catch it near the hoop and put it up and in. As the front office rejiggers things this summer, consideration should be given to just how unstoppable RJ would be with a true maestro on the short roll - nothing fancy, a Jusuf Nurkić type would do just fine - let alone someone who can stretch the floor.

(I do find it slightly interesting that in 54 minutes of court time together, Barrett and human cinderblock Jericho Sims have a 117.5 offensive rating together. More, please.)

But that’s a conversation for another day. Back to Miami, and perhaps Barrett’s most encouraging drawn foul of the night.

This play, in which Miami again switches but this time with no high screen, features the thing that RJ supposedly can’t do: going right.

Tyler Herro (who Barrett knows damn well he has been and will continue to be compared to for the foreseeable future) is in textbook position to defend this drive. Behind him is Bam Adebayo, as solid a rim deterrent as there is. None of it matters.

The best part of this is that even if RJ wasn’t fouled and/or didn’t convert the bucket, Adebayo had to commit to help, meaning that Mitchell Robinson would have been in prime position to clean up the miss. In essence, if RJ can turn himself into someone this switch proof, the Knicks have themselves the makings of a sustainable offensive foundation. As the season has come completely apart at the seams, that right there is enough to be encouraged about moving forward.

RJ was feeling himself so much on this particular evening that midway through the second, the pupil decided to try and post up the master himself…and drew a foul in the process!

This is the sort of Fuck you, pay me! attitude every great player needs to have. Was this post up necessarily a good idea? Who cares! The Knicks have a 21-year-old with the stones to think it was a good idea, and unlike so many false prophets that have come before him, he actually has the game to justify the decision.

That mentality carried over to Sunday’s affair with the Sixers, even if the results didn’t fully follow behind.

This was literally the first play of the game, featuring RJ initiating the offense and then taking on two guys who made the All-Defense Team last season in Matisse Thybulle and Joel Embiid.

The rest of his night - 24 points on 22 shots, plus six makes in 10 trips to the line, to go with six assists and five rebounds - didn’t go quite as well, as the Sixers keyed in on RJ and prevented him from finding a consistent groove. Even so, his fingerprints were all over this one in a mostly positive way.

Barrett doesn’t get credited here with anything other than a missed shot, but it’s what he does before the attempt that indirectly results in this wide open triple from Fournier.

Thanks to Jericho Sims doing a great job of screening and re-screening (can you tell I’m a fan of this kid?), Barrett is able to get Philly’s nominal center, Paul Milsap, switched onto him. The attempt isn’t RJ’s best, but it also doesn’t need to be. Thanks to the switch and commitment from Milsap, Sims only has to rise up over Danny Green to grab the easy offensive board. When he does, Evan Fournier’s man is forced to come down to help, leaving Fournier with a wide open triple off the Sims kick out.

Not that he needs any extra shade thrown his way, but these are the sort of byproducts you don’t get from Julius Randle contested 18-footers. Randle, of course, still draws doubles, but then again…

…so does Barrett.

This version of RJ Barrett, a young man who has had all the pressure in the world thrust upon him based on where he was drafted and the team that chose him, is a guy who can be the lead option on an NBA offense. Not a great one, or even a good one - not right now at least - but one that will keep defenses honest.

But this is where his age and development curve has to be considered. Over the next 21 games, just how high that curve goes for this 21-year-old will be the most important development of the Knicks’ season.

And in a year where not much has been pleasing to the eyes, it’ll also be the most fun to watch.

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his new hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter