The Mitch and Randle Show
by Jonathan Macri
Last Thursday in this space, I wrote roughly 3000 words defending the Knicks’ offseason. It was a necessary, cathartic purge of lots of bad juju that had been building up for the previous three and a half weeks. I’ve never exfoliated my own skin, but my wife does it on the regular, and judging by the way she describes it, I had a similar experience. Or maybe it was more like emerging from a cocoon.
Yes…from now on, I shall officially be known as @BeautifulButterflyNBA.
This magical experience also came with a caveat. In the tiniest of fine print in between all that soapbox hollering, I had to acknowledge a simple but important point you may have missed: it’s going to be really, really hard for the Knicks to be any good next season.
For as much as the front office did as well as they could do given how events (largely) out of their control transpired, there’s a lot that would have to go right for this team not to have a bottom-five record, let alone sniff a playoff berth.
Here’s the good news: it’s far from impossible. New York’s projected win totals are so low not because the team isn’t talented, but because no one on the roster has made good on their talent to the point that you’d call any single Knick a “complete” basketball player. Last we checked, all of the Knicks kids took at least as much off the table as they put on it.
More good news: that’s what young players are supposed to do! Whether or not they win more games than expected will depend not only on whether guys improve, but on where those improvements come from. That’s what we’ll start to look at today.
As with any NBA team, the best way to figure out how good New York is going to be is by looking at the players with the highest ceiling. We’re going to leave RJ Barrett aside for the purposes of this discussion, not because he won’t be good, but because he’s a rookie, and with very, very few exceptions, rookies usually stink, at least initially.
Instead, we’ll turn our attention to Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle. If the Knicks are going to be decent this year, it will be on the backs of these two dudes. Each can do things at their positions that almost no one else in the NBA can match. While few doubt their individual abilities, part of the reason people question whether this frontcourt pairing can work is because of concerns about how they’ll be able to play together.
The reason for that skepticism is simple: in the modern NBA, the thinking goes, if either your four or your five isn’t a threat from deep, you’re toast. There’s some truth to this. The Jazz, who run as sophisticated an offense as you’ll find, tried for years to make the Gobert/Favors pairing work. Although they had stints of real success in the regular season, the Rockets successfully game-planned for it in each of the last two postseasons, with both times eventually seeing Favors relegated to the bench.
Before you reply with an angry tweet featuring the recent video of Julius Randle hitting 25 straight threes in practice…yes, I am aware of the fact that he can hit a three. He hit 35.8 percent of catch and shoot triples last year, which is right around league average. That’s good!
But looking at this number alone is over simplistic for a couple of reasons. As Posting & Toasting’s Dallas Amico recently pointed out, thanks in part to a slow release, opposing defenses still weren’t guarding Randle on the perimeter despite his improvement from long range. This brings up the much larger issue about the choices defenses regularly have to make when deciding who to guard and who to help off of, something Ben Falk thoughtfully explored during the Bucks-Raps recent playoff series.
The short answer: it’s complicated, and whether teams decide to stay home or not often depends on several other factors. My guess is that defenses will respect Randle’s shot more than they did last year, but even so, it’s a shot I’m guessing the opposing coach will never be too heartbroken if that’s the result of a possession. The Knicks also aren’t paying the former seventh overall pick to stand on the perimeter and do his best Steve Novak impersonation.
On the flip side, the coaching staff should also limit Randle’s isolations and post-ups. Again, it’s not that his 0.95 and 0.92 points per possession on each play type, respectively, are bad, but they’ll be more than enough times where he’ll be the best bail out option on a busted play late in the shock clock. No need to make these a feature of the offense.
In order to get the most use out of their new addition, the Knicks shouldn’t avoid getting Randle involved with his new frontcourt partner; they should lean into it.
The 4/5 pick-and-roll, with the right personnel, can be one of the most dangerous plays in basketball. It’s not a combination that defenses are going to see very often, so when you run it effectively, it’s going to throw opposing teams for a bit of a loop.
In order for you to make it work, you need an initiator who can handle the rock, confidently pull up when given room to do so, and most importantly, complete passes with timing and precision. The screener in turn needs to be able to, umm…set screens, as well as finish at the rim.
Can it work? Potentially. In Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks have perhaps the single greatest lob threat in the game today. Just throw the damn thing in the general vicinity of the hoop and he’ll find it:
He also has worlds to go as a screener, and that’s putting it kindly. It’s impossible to emphasize just how important a solid screen is to making the pick-and-roll work effectively, as we’ll see in a bit.
As for Randle, the good news is that he has the tools as a passer…he’s just never been able to put them together effectively. Despite having a pretty good vertical threat in his own right last year, there weren’t many Julius to AD alley-oops to speak of. Only 32 of Randle’s 229 assists were to Davis last season despite playing over 1000 minutes together.
Even though that hookup never really materialized, Spencer Pearlman recently put together two videos showing Randle’s comfort in the pick and roll and also his ability to hit passes most power forwards simply can’t make.
As you see, most of his pick-and-roll action was designed to get him a mismatch against a smaller player as opposed to hitting the roll man. He’ll need to continue to evolve in this respect, just as Robinson will in setting him up.
For inspiration, the pairing should probably spend a healthy portion of camp watching the duo that is perhaps better at this dance than any other 4/5 twosome in the NBA right now: Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond, who have perfected the big/big P&R into an art form.
When those two shared the court last season, the Pistons scored 113.4 points per 100 possessions – a lofty number, especially considering their bottom-10 offensive rating overall. Even more instructive is the fact that Griffin was able to make this thing hum even though teams often played off of him despite him hitting 37.6 percent on catch and shoot threes – a number Randle should be able to approach next season.
Before looking at any of these examples though, it’s important to note: Griffin isn’t a good passer; he’s a great passer, perhaps the best passing big in the league besides Nikola Jokic and LeBron, who might be the best ever at their respective positions.
Randle has a long way to go before he even approaches that plane of existence, but based on what we’ve seen from him already, it isn’t out of the question. One matter of concern though (adeptly pointed out by Mr. Amico, once again) is that passing to cutters and lob threats has been a particular area of weakness for Randle thus far. For this duo to become dynamic – see what I did there? – he’ll need to clean that up significantly.
So what kind of results would a Randle/Robinson pick and roll yield? Let’s take a look, starting with arguably the most common setup in the game today: the spread P&R, which features shooters in the corners, one more at the free throw line extended, and then a ton of room for the remaining two players to operate.
In this first clip, Drummond dislodges former DPOY Draymond Green just enough to force Andrew Bogut into a difficult choice: come up on Griffin or stay back to protect the rim. Ultimately, his respect for Blake as a shooter and playmaker gives Dre the room he needs to end the play with a flush:
Similar play here, but pay attention to the screen by Drummond. He gets away with an ever so delicate push off on Wayne Seldon that might be the difference between him having the space he needs and not. Once he’s off to the hoop, RoLo can’t do anything to prevent the outcome:
Here’s another example of Drummond being an absolute cinderblock, this time against the league MVP. You’ll notice the Bucks employing their usual strategy of giving up open outside looks in favor of walling off the point. It doesn’t matter in the least. Griffin’s pass is so on point and Drummond gets just enough of a runway that Brook Lopez might as well be Muggsy Bogues in the lane:
I went back and watched every Griffin to Drummond assist from last season, and the ones against Milwaukee were most encouraging. It didn’t matter that the Bucks didn’t respect Blake’s shot; his precision and timing (not to mention Drummond’s textbook screens) more than made up for it.
If Randle really keeps progressing as a passer? There’s no telling how good this pairing can get. Like, how are you supposed to stop this:
It doesn't even matter that Khyri Thomas – not the deadliest of shooters - is in the corner. Wade doesn't really have a choice, and even if he hedged more, it probably wouldn’t make a difference.
All of these clips serve as evidence of the types of plays that Randle and Mitch would do well to pull off about once per game this year. That’s fine. In a season where 30 wins would seem like a minor achievement, it’s ok to travel the occasionally bumpy road.
One way they could smooth things out is by running. Randle is one of the best grab-and-go transition bigs in the league, both as a passer and a finisher. Even semi-transition opportunities would benefit the pairing, as Mitch is far better at drag screens at this point in his career, and those come in handy when pushing the pace. Anything to get these two more comfortable playing off of each other would be a huge plus.
One final caveat: for as great as Drummond and Griffin were in their own right, when they shared the floor with elite sharpshooter Luke Kennard last season, they were otherworldly, posting 122.7 points per 100 possessions according to Cleaning the Glass.
Kennard converted 42 percent of catch and shoot threes last year on significant volume. The Knicks don’t have anyone with that level of proficiency, although it’s interesting to note that the two players they signed this offseason most known for their shooting – Reggie Bullock and Wayne Ellington – both spent time in Detroit last season (the Blake/Dre combo benefited when paired with each wing, although neither to the level of Kennard. When the two bigs played without one of Kennard, Bullock or Ellington, their offensive rating plummeted to 103.9. Turns out, shooting matters!).
That the Knicks signed both men could just be a coincidence, or a sign that Scott Perry and Steve Mills want to replicate what the Pistons were able to do with their power duo. Either way, if the Knicks can put just enough shooting around these guys (and they improve in a couple of key areas) there’s a real possibility the offense hums far more than most outsiders figure it will.
Thanks for reading, talk to you next Thursday!