The Sum of All Fears
An 0-4 trip has humbled Mike Miller's Knicks. What's coming could be even worse.
On one hand, this was the most predictable ending to a 4-game west coast road trip ever.
Less than 24 hours after getting blown out against one of the league’s title favorites that hasn’t lost against an under-.500 team all year, the Knicks went from missing their best player to their top two, and again got their doors blown off, this time to the team with the best net rating in the NBA over the last two weeks that is now 12-1 in their last dozen games.
These were not games the Knicks should have won, nor did they really have any business even making them close. Wednesday they were undone by sloppiness and too many bricks, yesterday by lack of attention to detail, if not outright laziness. There are some teams you survive against without defending on the balls of your feet; the Jazz aren’t one of them.
Mike Miller’s magic wand has its limits, and it seems no amount of waving could have prevented 10-26 from turning into 10-28.
On the other hand, it was yet another reminder in a season full of them that the special brew which Knicks’ brass tried to concoct this summer still has a bitter aftertaste. Just before New Year’s Eve, I wrote the following:
As we continue to ponder the $64,000 question of what the rest of this season will bring, it feels like we’ll have far more answers after they return back to New York in 10 days, and even more after the next 14 games, 10 of which come against current playoff placeholders.
That first benchmark has now been reached. The dream scenario - say, a 3-2 stretch or even a highly competitive 2-3 run - is gone. The Knicks, while “only” seven games out of the last playoff spot in the east (I can barely type those words with a straight face) have to embrace reality: Whatever the goals were heading into this season, whether they were valid or not, must now be altered.
The problem, it seems, is that everyone seems to realize this except for the men making the decisions. Based off of Ian Begley’s report yesterday, it’s clear that the front office is still wallowing in purgatory when it comes to what to do between now and the February 6 trade deadline:
To say this is disconcerting is an understatement, for a few reasons.
Primarily, the fact that a front office who may be out of jobs three months from now is still empowered to make decisions that could drastically alter the team’s future is, umm…less than ideal. Yes, someone has to take calls on the Marcus Morris’ and Bobby Portis’ of the world, but getting the best asset package for an expiring vet is a far cry from the type of roster alteration it seems may be in play here.
I myself have argued repeatedly that there is an intrinsic value in remaining competitive, even in a lost season, especially with the new lottery rules. But like anything, those scales can tip in a hurry.
Put aside the question of whether or not to trade Morris for the best package available. Worst case scenario, they keep him, miss out on a menial return, and avoid more nights like the last two. I can think of worse fates.
Even shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic - moving on from Randle or Portis or Payton or whoever in favor of other vets who might grease the entryway into a more RJ & Mitch-centric offense - would be fine. I don’t know that such deals will be available, but if they are? Hell, I’d be all for them.
But proactively looking to make roster upgrades is whole different animal altogether. Not only does it bring into play giving up assets, but it further muddies the waters as to just what the plan is moving forward. “Build this thing the right way” was a punchline to many the first moment it was uttered, but up until now, one could at least credibly argue that the plan - to the extent their ever was one - hadn’t yet been abandoned.
Trading the Dallas picks, Kevin Knox, or worse, one of the Knicks’ own future first rounders takes any remaining notions of a patient rebuild and tosses them into the blender.
Is any of that on the table? Well, we already had this report from Keith Smith a few weeks ago:
Marc Berman also had a passing line in a recent column which referred to Mitchell Robinson as the only untouchable Knicks (I’ll tell myself he just figured RJ Barrett’s name was implied, if only so I can get to sleep at night).
Based off of what I’ve heard, all of this reporting is accurate. Knox’s name, apparently, has been discussed, and it seems they may be willing to put a Dallas pick or picks on the table in the right deal.
That might be music to your ears. Knox, after all, has been dreadful, and the last two nights may represent the low point (remind me not to write any more columns on Knox’s improved defense, by the way. He was abysmal last night, and fell into several old, bad habits, albeit against a team that is built to exploit his particular brand of defensive shortcomings). Even the unprotected Dallas 2021 pick would seem to have a capped value, what with Luka Doncic looking like a perennial MVP candidate for the next decade and KP happily playing a supporting role.
But executives on unsteady ground punting on uncertain future assets is a blueprint for how not to run an organization.
To wit: Kevin Knox was drafted a little more than 18 months ago by a team that was trumpeting it’s developmental accolades from the rooftops. They told us how Knox - a raw prospect who they would give the appropriate time and care to bring along slowly - was going to be their crown jewel.
Of course, sometimes things change. Dallas gave up on Dennis Smith Jr. after a year and a half, after all. Good organizations know when to shift course, right?
Sure…but that’s not what would be happening here. The Mavs lucked into drafting the Larry Bird of the 2020’s, and instead of responding positively, DSJ went AWOL. Smith Jr. was also used to get KP, who is perhaps the ideal running mate for Doncic. Trading him was the right move in every sense.
Kevin Knox, by all indications, has been nothing but a hard worker and good apple since the day he walked in the door. New York also isn’t getting a KP-sized return if they deal him (although I’m sure they’d try to sell it as such), especially with his play of late.
(And by the way: could it be that Knox’s space-cadet level of play lately is the result of a 20-year-old who thought he would be in New York for the next decade suddenly realizing he’s just another chess piece? I certainly wouldn’t rule it out.)
If the Knicks trade him now, it would be an indictment of this front office that would make the Porzingis trade look like a blip on the radar in comparison. It would signal a failure to not only on the drafting front, but on the development front as well. It would be a red flare visible for miles that everything said over the last two and a half years has been nothing more than lip service to stay on the job for another day.
It also wouldn’t be surprising in the least. Steve Mills and Scott Perry know their jobs are on the line, and doing what’s right completely goes against their own self interest. They’d be shampooing the carpets and scrubbing the counters for the next occupant of the house before they have to go wait on the bread line.
Is it possible that Dolan would sign off on a move to get, say, a DeMar DeRozan or a Chris Paul or a Dennis Schroder, even if it meant an asset or assets going out in the transaction? Who knows?
What about an even bigger swing for the fences? I caught a lot of shit on Twitter yesterday for suggesting that if the Knicks attempted to acquire Ben Simmons, it would be the worst possible fate for the franchise, but there’s a method to my madness. Essentially, this would only happen if the Knicks gave up control of multiple drafts, including, in all likelihood, both 2021 and 2022, plus whatever young players were needed to make the deal work.
(To be clear, like I wrote yesterday, I think this would have to be a three-way deal, because the Knicks have nothing to offer in terms of a starting-caliber replacement for Simmons. Ben’s low salary also makes any trade that much more difficult. But where there’s a will, there’s a way.)
It would be an all-in move if there ever was one for a guy who might be a top-ten player but is also as difficult a fit as any “star” in the NBA. “Simmons plus shooting” is an easy-sounding formula…except for the fact that the Knicks have less shooting than any team in the NBA. We’d be entrusting this front office to add the necessary ingredients to make it work, except the kitchen would be ransacked beforehand and the chefs have a track record for setting the oven on fire.
There’s also the opportunity cost, not only of being unable to acquire another star via trade down the line (KAT, perhaps?), but more importantly, of making the Knicks PoBO job look that much less attractive to a potential suitor. In that sense, such a trade would be the most Machiavellian thing this front office has ever done. They’d win over back pages and fans alike, and certainly buy themselves more time, even if it was only because other applicants for the position would be scared away.
Of course this is highly unlikely. But you never know. Over the next four weeks, every crazy, insane thing you can imagine will be bandied about. None of it probably happens, but whether they do or don’t will be entirely at the whims of two men operating from the only thing worse than a place of weakness: A place of fear.
And that thought, more than anything else, is terrifying.
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Dallas Amico dropped Part 3 of his look at the Knicks offense. It’s really good. Reminder that he’s coming on the pod tonight to talk about all three pieces. Good times.
David Fizdale talked for the first time since his firing, and had some nice things to say about RJ Barrett.
On This Date: Derrick Rose goes Missing
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
In one of the many bizarre events of the 2016-17 season, Derrick Rose disappears shortly before a Monday night home game against the New Orleans Pelicans. D-Rose attended shoot-around in the afternoon, but left unannounced soon after. The team later announced that Rose was not with the team due to a “family situation.”
That’s it for today…see everyone tomorrow!