"The Talk": Part II
We must finish what we start.
Good morning! I’m so sorry our talk was interrupted yesterday. It is important to me that we finish it. But first, the news:
🗣 News & Notes ✍️
🏀 We got a Mitchell trade update with some specifics yesterday courtesy of Shams and Tony Jones of The Athletic:
The Jazz and Knicks are in discussions on a trade that would send Donovan Mitchell to New York, according to sources. A deal is not considered imminent yet, but the Knicks are motivated to acquire Mitchell and have proposed new packages to Utah’s new front office led by CEO Danny Ainge.
New York made a recent offer of Evan Fournier, Obi Toppin, additional salary and two unprotected first-round draft picks (five total)…
They go on, yet again, to mention Washington and Charlotte as interested suitors. Not really anything new, as this is the sort of package we all kind of assumed had been offered, although I believe this has been the first concrete report to that end.
Some thoughts on the update before we get to today’s column:
It might just be me (and it might just be the middle of August, and we’ve all stewed on this insanity for far too long) but the working of the first paragraph makes me feel as if there is more momentum towards the trade happening than has previously been reported at any previous time. While everyone is focused on the specifics of this reported trade, the fact that the Knicks have proposed new packages - plural - seems relevant.
I’d be careful reading too much into the Obi part of this, either as it pertains to how the Knicks view Toppin himself or the man currently blocking him in the starting lineup, Julius Randle. If it’s one thing I feel nearly certain about in light of all the reporting and other snippets I’ve heard since the season ended, it’s that there is no market for Randle as even a neutral asset. If, in fact, Obi is on the table, I don’t view that as a sign of organizational confidence in Julius nearly as much as I view it as an acknowledgment of the sad reality of Randle’s value. Toppin or no Toppin, I think the Knicks would still love nothing more than to move on from Julius before the season, which is part of the reason I’m not ruling out the Mitchell trade eventually turning into a three-teamer.
Going a step further on the Obi thing, I’m not sure I even fully believe the Knicks intend to put him in an eventual Mitchell deal. Far be it from me to question the reporting from yesterday - I’m not - but I wonder if there isn’t some posturing going on here. For instance, “We’ll give you Obi, but then you’re only getting two of our firsts,” all the while knowing full well that Ainge isn’t going to make this trade with anything less than three unprotected firsts (the same as the Gobert trade, plus another top-five protected first and an additional unprotected swap). This, more than anything, is what I suspect the holdup to be in that New York doesn’t want to mortgage its draft future to this degree, which is why I keep going back to getting a third team involved who might be incentivized to pony up a future first of their own. But I digress…point is, maybe the eventual compromise the Knicks foresee does involve more draft equity but with Toppin coming off the table.
Bumping the point from yesterday: if Fournier is the outgoing salary (as this report suggests the Knicks would like), it prevents the Knicks from having to pony up more key young players than they would love.
Regarding the “additional salary” part of the report, if Mitchell waived his trade bonus, including Deuce McBride could make the deal work under the cap. I suppose this could also be referring to Cam Reddish, but I doubt it for a variety of reasons.
Last thing, small point, but an interesting one to me nonetheless: New York’s reported offer here indicated they’re trying to retaining one of the protected picks. I wonder which one? And why? Something I hadn’t considered much about the Wizards pick until now: not only is it arguably the best of the four protected picks, but it an insanely valuable asset to Washington specifically. If they had that pick back, it would open up all sorts of trade possibilities, as they’d no longer be hamstrung in sending out future picks in trades. Just a though.
OK, enough on the Trade That Will Never Happen. On to Part II of “The Talk”…
"The Talk": Part II
We left off yesterday with the mention of outcomes. Specifically, the consideration of RJ Barrett’s ceiling, his floor, and everything in between.
Up until this point in his career, there hasn’t been any urgency to consider this wide range of possibilities. Even when he became eligible for his extension, we were talking about a difference of around $5 or $10 million a year (in terms of extending him at close to the max based on projecting ample growth vs a far more reasonable number in line with his existing production). The ramifications of more or less money vs trading RJ altogether are very, very different.
Which is why, even though I’ve already done more Barrett deep dives than every other Knicks player combined (check here, here, and here if you don’t believe me, plus a few more I know I’m forgetting), it’s time for one more. Before we get to it though, I want to highlight the very best piece of writing on RJ, both in terms of what he is and what he can become, courtesy of Ben Ritholz.
Mention Andrew Wiggins’ name to an average Knicks fan as the primary comp for RJ Barrett and you’re likely to receive a rude response in return. Whether that’s appropriate is a different story. Sure, Wiggins plateaued as a Wolf after a steady but uninspiring first three seasons, and before long was discussed as one of the worst contracts in basketball. But with a new team and more appropriate role, he’s enjoying a brilliant third act to his career…and he’s still just 27 years old. You can bet that his next contract will be worth nine figures when all is said and done.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Knicks Film School to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.