The Vultures are Circling...
It ain't gettin' any better
Call it the Coby White Game if you want.
That is, after all, how a game in which seven fourth quarter threes by a rookie guard who had been shooting 21 percent from deep should probably be remembered.
Just don’t let is distract you from the real reason they lost, or more importantly, the reason last night only further muddies the waters as far as what really matters.
Guys get hot. When it’s someone who’s actually a good 3-point shooter, and the first few go down, you center your defense around making sure they don’t get another decent look. When it’s a guy who was 11 for 52 coming into the evening, you almost hope he keeps shooting because the odds are bound to even out.
That they didn’t is a tempting excuse to blame last night on bad luck, but while White was hitting all those shots, the Knicks weren’t hitting anything at the other end. That’s how a 22-0 run in arguably the most important important quarter of the season happens, and tugs at the heart of why it felt like the most important quarter of the season.
One Big Thing
What’s it going to take for the offense to change?
David Fizdale had just been put on notice. There’s lots of reasons for this, but integrating several new pieces on offense in perhaps the least efficient way possible is at the center of it all.
There has been some progress. 85 points after three quarters on the road, after all, is more than OK. We’ve seen those signs though since opening night, when for stretches of games, the Knicks look downright functional moving the ball and integrating actual, real NBA-level concepts.
And then inevitably, the moment that a piece of stray lint on the shirt covering their backs even gets close to the wall, they revert back to form.
Here’s the problem: in the NBA, your back is always going to be pressed against the wall at some point. With the exception of a Bobby Portis explosion and one night in Dallas, they haven’t responded (and even versus the Mavs, they went through an eight-plus minute stretch in the fourth quarter only scoring ten points, and won despite scoring only 45 in the second half to a team with a defense as bad as theirs)
The numbers tell us why. Among Knick regulars, their leaders in shots per 36 minutes are, in ascending order, Marcus Morris (14.6 per 36), Julius Randle (14.7), Bobby Portis (14.8), RJ Barrett (14.8) and comically enough, Dennis Smith Jr. (15.2). The first four names on that list are also the only four Knicks who have taken at least 100 field goal attempts this season, with Kevin Knox a distant fifth at 79 and Frank Ntilikina net up with 50.
Barrett, of course, should be taking every one of these looks. He is the future and this is how you improve. He’s also been New York’s best overall player on the year, even after a vicious shooting slump he finally broke out of last night.
But the other three…I mean, if Steve Mills and Scott Perry all but handing Fiz a “Will Coach for Food” sign doesn’t change things, what will? Last night, Randle, Morris and Portis took 41 of the Knicks 88 shots, hitting a cool 34 percent. Other Knicks combined to shoot 47 percent.
The only question left is how much to pin this on the coach and whether the front office deserves 20 or 50 or 70 or whatever percent of the blame. To answer that question, we may have to turn our head to another issues we’ve become so accustomed to over the Fizdale regime, which is that the only accountability is usually selective accountability.
Taj Gibson and Wayne Ellington, two vets who absolutely make life easier for those around them, have taken turns getting DNP’s. Ellington is a career 38 percent 3-point shooter with over 2500 attempts to his name, and yet is already glued to the bench. If there’s one guy you figure the coach would want to stubbornly continue sending out there, it’s him.
Instead, it’s been the same combinations that haven’t worked. Which leads us to…
Stat of the Night
9
That’s how many of the Knicks’ most-used three-man lineups you have to go through before you find one that has a higher net rating than their overall team number of negative 10.9. In other words, the combos that David Fizdale is turning to most often are making the team worse, not better.
Every one of those nine features either Randle, Morris or Portis, while five of the top seven feature two of the three. One, of course, features all three, which should never, ever, ever be a thing that happens.
This isn’t to say that any of the three should be glued to the bench themselves, but there has to be a better balance than the one being achieved right now. Maybe this wouldn’t be the case if any of the three focused more on doing more things off-ball – setting (as opposed to constantly slipping) screens and cutting are two humble suggestions – but alas, that’s not happening.
Of course, this all comes back to the front office as well, because who knows what promises were made to all three before they signed here in terms of playing time and being allowed to have carte blanche during the minutes they received.
Either way, something needs to change, not because winning a bunch of games this season actually matters, but because this is the exact opposite of an offense that’s going to hasten the development of the guys who do matter and should be around for a while.
Doghouse (not to be confused with Dawghouse)
To drive home how much what’s currently happening isn’t helping anyone, Bobby Portis currently has an eFG% of .420 (his career average is .499, and he hit .504 last season), while Randle is sitting at .460 (.514 career, .555 in 2018-19). Even Morris, at .497, is well below his .533 average last year.
On that note:
Humble Suggestion
Create a time machine, go back to June 30 at 5:59 pm, and sign only two of Randle, Portis and Morris. It would break up this logjam and inevitably get more speed and shooting on the floor.
My choice? Just go with Morris and Portis. Randle commands a lot of attention, and in a version of the universe where the Knicks have a tad more playmaking and shooting, his role as “the guy” might actually work.
It’s not right now.
Made Me Smile
If they could just get their shit sorted out…
…we would all have so, so much to look forward to. Alas…
Tweet of the Night
Presented without comment:
Final Thought
Marc Berman had this snippet from today’s column in the NY Post:
Despite another defeat, there was a clear attempt to calm roiling waters surrounding Fizdale. Sources indicated Mills and Perry felt their unprecedented James Dolan-inspired press conference Sunday came off as too harsh in the form of pinning the blame on the coach.
The perception Fizdale is under a 10-game window from management’s comments seems a bit misconstrued, according to the source.
The major deterrent in making such a change after just 20 games is it potentially would put an assistant coach — Jud Buechler, Kaleb Canales, Keith Smart or Mike Miller — in an impossible spot as an interim coach and not even give Mills a chance to showcase his new roster in the best way.
For all the blame that’s going on Fiz - and I just wrote several hundred words of it, so I’d know - this reported admission from the front office that a different coach probably won’t help things all that much is probably as damning an assessment of the job they did last summer as anything.
It also means that despite our collective pleas, this outfit will continue to feature a lot of the same misgivings that have been so frustrating.
I hope to hell that I’m wrong.
Stock Review
Yesterday I highlighted Damyean Dotson as part of our week-long roll out of PredictionStrike, our new sponsor that allows you to buy and sell players as if they were stocks and make a profit or loss based on how well they fare against projections.
Before last night’s game, Dot’s stock price was a tidy $4.92, up from $2.89 a few days earlier following his 10-point performance Sunday night. As a result, going into last night, he was projected to get 2.94 fantasy points. He ended up with 9.8, and guess what: his stock price has now shot up $7.79 a share.
Did you go out and buy 50 or 100 shares of Dot after Sunday’s game? Do you wish you had? (Hell, I wish I had…maybe I should start following my own damn advice)
Regardless, this is the kind of fun you can have with PredictionStrike. If you’re interested, click here and enter code KFS to get $10 extra to play with. With the Knicks season going the way it is, if nothing else, you’ll be happy with the distraction.
Must Listen
New KFS Pod, featuring some really good insight from the Knicks beat reporter for NorthJersey.com, Chris Iseman. Also, KFS Intern Kris Pursiainen helps me wrap up the Bulls game.
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Ian Begley with some additional reporting here about how the front office’s job’s should be safe if the team shows progress. What counts as progress is anyone’s guess.
Alex Wolfe did last night’s Posting and Toasting recap, and it’s 100% worth checking out. Also for P&T, Benny Buckets argues that firing Fiz ain’t the answer.
And of course, the Knicks debacle is starting to make it’s way into the national conversation.
Come drink & watch the Knicks for a good cause
One day away!!!! Remember, a portion of all proceeds will go towards helping feed needy NYC families on Thanksgiving!
On This Date: Larry Brown wins his first game as Knicks coach after 0-5 start
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
Larry Brown won his first game as Knicks head coach after an 0-5 start. Rookie Channing Frye led the Knicks with 19 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. Stephon Marbury led the team with 39 minutes played, resulting in 17 points and 7 assists.
That’s it! See everyone tomorrow (both here, and hopefully, at Penn 6 to drown our sorrows in solidarity, hopefully with a win we’d all really, really like to get)