The Wemby Rules
In Part II of our NBA Finals breakdown, we look at how New York's defense can slow down ET.
Good morning! The most important thing to come out of NBA Finals media day is this single snapshot of Mitch’s hand…
…as well as this video of Mitch dribbling, shooting and doing other basketball-related activities on the court. Mike Brown was coy when asked about what Robinson’s injury designation will be for tomorrow’s game, but I’m betting he’ll be cleared by medical and he’ll play.
Reminder that we’re live tonight for both the watch along and the postgame. Hope to see everyone on the KFS YouTube channel then.
The Wemby Rules
My goodness, has it been a long time.
The last morning we woke up with a Knicks Finals game to look forward to at night, JLo’s “If You Had My Love” topped the music charts and Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me was No. 1 at the box office. All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson was also born on Wednesday, June 16, 1999, while Payne Stewart was getting his final practice shots in ahead of the 99th US Open. What a time to be alive.
Zooming in on the NBA, the league’s oldest player just so happened to be gearing up for his second NBA Finals. 40-year-old Herb Williams made his debut in 1981, lasting nearly two decades in the NBA. He would go on to play 1:48 against the Spurs, and would announce his retirement shortly after the series ended.
On the other end of the spectrum, Dirk Nowitzki wasn’t the league’s youngest player at the time - that designation went to OAKAAK Al Harrington - but he was the player active in 1999 who went on to last the longest, playing until the 2018-19 season. In that final campaign, he’d spend some time mentoring a rookie guard out of Villanova who tonight will take the same Finals stage that Dirk once did, attempting to lead the Knicks to the most improbable NBA title since Nowitzki’s Mavs in 2011.
That was Dirk’s second shot at a title, of course, with his first getting railroaded by a precocious Miami guard who got a slight assist from some helpful referees.
Dwyane Wade wasn’t the youngest Finals MVP when he won it in 2006 - Kareem, Magic and Duncan all had him beat, and Kawhi and Tony Parker would be younger winners after D-Wade’s title - but he remains one of the youngest “best” players on an NBA champion at the ripe age of 24. Many times when elite players have made their first finals before turning 25, things haven’t gone quite so well.
KD was 23 in 2012. LeBron was 22 in 2007. Shaq was 23 in 1995. Hakeem was 23 in 1986. Those are four of the 15 greatest players ever, all of whom went on to win multiple titles, but they had to take their lumps first.
Will Victor Wembanyama join them, or add his name alongside the likes of Wade, Duncan, Bird, Walton and Kareem, all of whom climbed the mountaintop without first failing on the final leg of the journey? If he does, he’ll put his Spurs next to Bill Walton’s 1977 Portland Trail Blazers as the only teams in NBA history to win it all with no playoff experience on their collective resume.
Needless to say, Game 1 will be important, although maybe not as important as we think. The loser of the opening game of the finals has gone on to win seven of the last 15 NBA titles, including last year’s Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder joined the 2022 Warriors and the 2013 Heat as the only home teams to lose Game 1 in the last 15 years, yet all three went on to win the championship. On the flip side, the 2021 Bucks, the 2016 Cavs, the 2012 Heat and Dirk’s 2011 Mavs all lost on the road to open their respective finals and still wound up holding a parade.
So…with that precedent, should we be rooting against the Knicks tonight? Not quite. In the Brunson era, the Game 1 result has aligned with the series result nine out of 10 times, with the lone exception being the 2024 east semis. Does that result change without OG’s hamstring injury? We’ll never know.
Funny enough, the Knicks have won a road Game 1 of the NBA Finals twice in their history, in 1953 and 1972. Both times they not only went on lose the series, but did so in five games, which has happened just two other times1.
Again, this year has been all about re-writing history. What’s a few more notches on that belt?
To do so, New York will not only have to worry about scoring enough against the human riddle that is Victor Wembanyama, but stopping him on offense as well. To that end, it’s not an exaggeration to say that Wemby is a one of one force on offense just as much as he is on defense, as the Knicks well know by now.
Not only does Wemby’s height make him close to an automatic bucket if he gets deep post position (see: 75 percent on shots at the rim in the regular season; 73 percent in the playoffs, both on significant volume), but his ability to lead a fast break at 7'4" gives San Antonio’s offense a dimension that no other team in the league has outside of maybe the Denver Nuggets.
And then when Wemby’s not in the game and your defense thinks it can breath, they can smell that relaxation like chum in the water and attack without hesitation:
Contrary to popular believe, Phil Jackson’s beloved UniKornet has not dominated the Knicks this season. The Spurs did win his minutes in the NBA Cup, but San Antonio has been outscored by 24 points in his 34 minutes across the other two games.
Even so, every minute without Wemby on the court becomes a massive one for the opposition. You almost feel like you have to score every time down the court, and when you give up a basket, the points seem to count for double. The fact that the Spurs are more or less even in 254 postseason minutes with Kornet on the floor is a testament to the roster they’ve built around their superstar.
But we know what this series will come down to. The Spurs have had an offensive rating of 112 or higher during Wemby’s minutes 13 times in these playoffs. They’re 11-2 in those games, and one of the losses came when OKC hit 45 percent from downtown. In the four games that the Wembanyama minutes have produced an offensive rating of 107 or lower, San Antonio has yet to win. Not coincidentally, those are the only four playoff games in which Wemby posted an effective field goal percentage below 53 percent2.
Translation: if you hold down Vic, you hold down the Spurs.
So how exactly are the Knicks supposed to do that?
By following the rules, of course.
