Third Bananas

Today we tackle the questions hovering over NY's offseason. Plus, Bradley Beal trade analysis and more draft history from Ray Marcano.

Good morning! The offseason kicked off with a bang yesterday. We’ll tackle that, plus two features, in a jam-packed Monday edition.

🗣️ News & Notes ✍️

🏀 Bradley Beal is heading to Phoenix.

The longtime Wizard is joining forces with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, while the Suns will send back Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, and multiple second-round picks and pick swaps back to Washington. Jordan Goodwin is also heading to Phoenix in the deal, which is not yet finalized because of the possibility that the Wizards may reroute CP3 to a third team.

Ultimately, this came down to Beal exercising the massive leverage afforded him by the no trade clause he received from the previous Wizards front office. The reporting is a bit muddled - maybe Miami really wanted him, maybe they only kinda wanted him - but at the end of the day, the Suns were his choice. At the same time, any urgency to trade Beal now was completely self-imposed by the new Washington regime. They could have kept Beal in the hopes that he either expanded his list, inspired better offers, or both. That they chose to make a deal now may be in part because they tried to do right by him as a longtime loyal Wizard, but they also had to feel good about the transaction. For them, its pretty clear that getting out from under the remaining $208 million is the real prize.

Now all eyes turn to Miami and Portland, and whether Damian Lillard will be the next star on the move.

As for the Knicks, it seems like they were never really in on Beal - perhaps their doing, perhaps Beal’s. Also of note, with Washington now seemingly poised to enter a rebuild, there’s a question about whether the Wizards pick that New York owns will ever convey. It’s top-12 protected in 2024, top-10 in 2025 and top-8 in 2026. After that, it converts to two second rounders.

🏀 According to Ian Begley, while the Knicks don’t currently have an opening at the center spot, “Naz Reid has a significant amount of fans within the organization.” Something to keep in mind if the roster undergoes some turnover and a spot at the five opens up.

🏀 Ja Morant will be suspended for 25 games nest season for his second incident displaying a gun on social media.

Third Bananas

Several hours after Denver hoisted their first ever championship trophy, there was one player who just couldn’t let the party end - so much so that he decided to join the throngs of Nuggets fans that had spilled out into the streets of Mile High:

You could forgive Aaron Gordon for not wanting to go to sleep. After all, Gordon had spent the first six and a half seasons in NBA purgatory. Over that time, the Magic made the postseason just twice. Both ended in first round gentleman’s sweep, the second of which Gordon missed with an injury.

Since heading west, the former No. 4 overall pick has experienced nothing but winning, but that success has also required sacrifice. While Gordon was never the leading scorer on any of his Magic teams, he was arguably the face of the franchise from the day he was drafted. That sort of thing carries a certain appeal to some players, even if it is accompanied by a good deal of losing.

The other contender for face of the late 2010’s Magic was Nikola Vucevic. On the same day that Gordon was dealt to Denver, Vooch was sent north to the Windy City. Unlike his former teammate, Vucevic hasn’t experienced anywhere near the same level of success despite the fact that he went to Chicago with two All-Star nods on his resume to Gordon’s zero.

The reason for that might seem obvious at first, and can be boiled down to two words: Nikola. Jokic. And to some extent, that analysis is spot on.

At the same time, there are reasons independent of the Joker’s brilliance that the Gordon trade worked and the Vooch trade didn’t. Even though Gordon isn’t a floor spacer, he checks several other boxes for ways that an NBA player can add value when he doesn’t have the rock. From providing ample defensive versatility with size to moving without the ball to above-average passing for a big man, Gordon has been a huge part of the Nuggets’ success in myriad ways.

Best of all, even though he’s had four seasons in which he attempted more field goals per 36 minutes, his points per 36 minutes this year were the highest of his career. That’s perhaps the best sign of all that a move from 1st/2nd banana to 3rd/4th banana is working like a charm: less has indeed been more.

The same can’t be said of Vucevic. Like Gordon, Vooch just had the most efficient season of his career while posting one of his lowest FGA/36 ever, but unlike his former teammate, less was not more for Chicago. Vucevic’s primary value is derived from his scoring ability. He provides some spacing, but teams also don’t bend over backwards to keep their center glued to a below-average 3-point shooter (see: anytime the Knicks play the Bulls). More importantly, it’s not like Vucevic can channel more of his energy into the defensive end, where he is and always will be a negative.

The result is a player who exists in a different sort of purgatory than the one he inhabited in Orlando…not good enough to lead his own team, but not a seamless fit as a lower part of the totem poll either. There’s probably a roster that could better insulate Vucevic’s weaknesses while taking greater advantage of his strengths, but the harder it is to envision such a setting, the less value he has.

Which brings us to the topic of one Julius Randle

If there has been one consistent offshoot of every theoretical star acquisition we’ve bandied about this offseason, it has been the question of how Randle will slot in as a third banana (and by extension, whether he will actually accept such a role if the situation calls for it).

Before we get to the discussion in full, it feels worth mentioning that there is a long history of players prior to Gordon who successfully made the conversion from first or second banana to supporting piece. Just going through NBA champions over the last two decades, we’ve seen Andrew Wiggins, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Love, Chris Bosh, Jason Kidd, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Ray Allen, Antoine Walker, Rasheed Wallace and even 37-year-old David Robinson shift down in some capacity from the higher usage player they once were.

Might any of these players and/or situations be analogous to Randle? With the exception of Robinson, whose advanced age surely made the change from MVP to sub-10 point scorer easier, all of the above players changed teams from wherever they were the first or second option. Perhaps that made it easier to accept a lesser role.

It’s also worth noting that the league has changed immensely in the last 20 and even 10 years. The best offense in the NBA a decade ago would have barely topped the 26th ranked Magic this season. A byproduct of this is the increased importance of floor spacing, which is notably different than having efficient shooting. Case in point: Isaac Okoro was a 39 percent 3-point shooter over the final 64 games of this season, and the Knicks couldn’t have been happier to play off of him. The shoe was on the other foot in round two, with Miami ignoring Josh Hart to a startling degree. On the flip side, Bradley Beal has barely been a league-average 3-point shooter for half a decade now and no team is ever going to leave him unattended.

So where does that leave Randle, who attempted the 10th most catch & shoot threes in the NBA last year but hit them at the ninth lowest clip amongst the 50 most voluminous shooters? If you subscribe to the theory that shooting volume matters more than shooting accuracy, maybe his willingness to fire away is the best thing he has going for him when it comes to a possible transition to 3rd wheel. Even so, Randle will probably need to become a league-average shooter from deep to make the gambit viable.

Regardless, the notion that Randle will suddenly be used like Klay Thompson in this offense seems far fetched. The question is how much he’d be able to blend his current role with whatever his new role would be alongside another ball dominant player. The first step would probably be decreasing his isolations.

Last year, Randle had the 6th most isolation possessions in the NBA at 4.9 per game:

Even with the addition of Brunson, this was the same number of ISO’s per game as Randle had the previous season, which was just slightly down from his initial All-NBA campaign in 2020-21, when he averaged 5.5 a night. But unlike his previous two seasons, when he generated .90 and .86 points per ISO possession, Randle was at 0.97 last season. Perhaps adding another star would make Randle’s ISO’s even more efficient moving forward, even if there’s almost certain to be fewer of them.

With the exception of Russell Westbrook (who ran an inexplicable 3.9 ISO’s per game with the Lakers last season despite generating an average of just 0.77 points on these possessions), the only other third option who ranked in the top 50 isolations per game was Khris Middleton, who ranked 50th with 1.9 a night.

Scrolling down the isolation scoring list looking for third option bigs, we find the aforementioned Aaron Gordon at 1.3 ISO’s a night. He’s proof that you can still be a relative non-shooter who scores at a fair clip (19.4 points per 36 minutes) without dominating the ball in the traditional sense.

But Gordon is also one of the league’s most prevalent and effective cutters. His 2.7 cuts per game was not only ninth most in the league but generated an absurd 1.49 points per possession - the best number amongst high frequency cutters. This obviously brings us back to Jokic, and his ability to hit anyone, anywhere, at any time.

Does Randle have an “off-ball” skill that would allow him to make beautiful music with some higher usage star player? He doesn’t cut (1.0 per game, outside of the top 100 league-wide) and he’s never been the most committed screen-setter, totaling just 1.3 possessions per game as the pick & roll roll man last season, which tied for 65th in the league. If the Knicks got a star backcourt player, perhaps Randle could be used more like one of Cleveland’s big men who were the 7th and 10th most frequent rollers, respectively.

Or maybe the Knicks could go in the other direction, and give Randle the ball even more while having him shoot far less.

Just last season, Julius ranked fifth in front court touches per game, behind only our friend Vooch and the three All-NBA centers, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Domantas Sabonis. Randle, like Embiid, parlayed many of those touches into shot attempts, leading the Knicks and finishing 19th in the league at 18.6 shots a night. Sabonis, however, finished 88th with just 11.9 shots on average. He actually took fewer shots per 36 minutes than teammates Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, and barely more than rookie Keegan Murray.

Sabonis, of course, served much the same role in Sacramento’s offense as Jokic did for Denver, and while he’s not on the Joker’s level as a passer (because no one is), he’s quite good in his own right. That said, Julius is just two years removed from averaging 6.0 dimes a night as the epicenter of New York’s offense, and this past season, the four most frequent shooters off of Randle passes had a fairly high degree of success from behind the arc:

The numbers for Brunson in particular are interesting. Jalen shot 51.9 percent from 2-point range overall, so his 2-point shooting off of Randle passes was quite a bit lower (although still excellent). On 3-pointers though, Brunson shot far better off of Randle passes than from anyone else on the team besides Mitch.

And then there’s RJ Barrett, who couldn’t hit the far side of a barn when most of his teammates passed to him but was gangbusters off passes from Julius:

Looking at these numbers, there’s an argument that adding another player who demanded significant attention from defenses could make Randle even more dangerous as a passer.

The defense is where the greater concern lies. None of the names currently in the trade winds are strong defenders, which could create some uncomfortable choices. At the end of a close game (or for the majority of a playoff game), you really only need two creators on the floor at any given time. Everyone else ideally needs to be able to shoot, and certainly needs to be able to defend. Otherwise, most opponents will just pull the weakest defender into a pick & roll and have a field day. It’s hard enough to hide one poor defender, let alone three.

If Randle becomes the third most threatening on-ball option, does he become the one to sit out end-of-game situations? Or does Thibs challenge him to rise to the occasion? Some of the most impressive moments of Randle’s season came when he did just that, such as against the Nuggets on the road and the Clippers at home. Maybe there’s more where that came from.

Or maybe the Knicks opt to go in a different direction and move Randle in the trade for whatever star they target. Ian Begley implied they might do just that in his mailbag on Friday, writing that if he had to guess, “I’d think Barrett’s playoff performance bolsters the odds that he remains in New York” if the team picks between keeping Julius or RJ out of a trade.

Barrett certainly had his own issues as a third option this season, struggling at times on defense and shooting just 31 percent from downtown. Like Randle, RJ’s one successful season from long range came during the pandemic in mostly empty gyms, but he’s also far younger and theoretically has more of a runway to improve. Defensively, we saw a better performance from Barrett after the All-Star break and especially in the playoffs.

More than anything though, this might come down to finances. It’s hard to see a world where Randle remains in New York, continues to be part of a successful Knicks team, and doesn’t seek something close to a max contract when he can opt out of his current deal in two years. Barrett, on the other hand, has two extra years on his deal before he hits the market. Who knows how his next four seasons go, but there’s certainly an argument that under the new CBA, he’s the wiser choice to keep around. Of course, if that’s the case for the Knicks, it may be the case for other teams as well, and it wouldn’t shock anyone if a prospective trade partner preferred RJ, and not Julius, to go back in any deal.

All this is to say that there’s a lot for New York’s front office to consider when they think about continuing to shape this roster.

Less is more? We’ll find out soon enough if the Knicks agree.

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Over the next several days, and leading up to the NBA draft, Ray Marcano looks at the best low-round picks in NBA history. The first part on Friday looked at the best New York Knicks players taken in Round 3 and after, headed by Mike Riordan (who makes this list, too), Henry Bibby, and Kurt Rambis, a player the Knicks drafted but cut. Today, we look at the three best low-round values ever.

Bargain Bin

It was always rare for a low-round pick to make an NBA team.

In 1960, the Knicks selected 18 players, and not one taken after the third round played for the team. Occasionally, the Knicks took a player late who saw some court time. Wayne Molis, a 10th-round pick in the 1965 draft, got in 13 games as a little-used reserve. Molis only played two years in the league because he blew out his knee and later became a firefighter.

So it makes sense that the league drastically shortened the draft, going from an undetermined number of rounds to 10, then three, and finally, the two rounds we know today.

A few players selected late had memorable careers. Earl Lloyd (9th round, Washington Capitols, 1950) made history as the first Black man to play in an NBA game. (Chuck Cooper of the Boston Celtics and Nat “Sweetwater” Clifton of the Knicks shortly followed suit). Lloyd’s ground-breaking achievement led to his induction into the NBA Hall of Fame.

Jim Fox (8th round, Cincinnati Royals, 1965) had a long NBA career as a role player traded six times, including three times in two seasons.

The three players listed here differentiate themselves because they had excellent careers that outshine their draft positions and should go down as the best values in NBA draft history.

They were all drafted between rounds 12 and 15, yet they were either all-stars or valuable members of championship teams.

Talk about value.

Best low round value draft picks in NBA History 

Adrian Smith

1958 Draft, round 15, Cincinnati Royals

Years active: 1961-1972

11.3 PPG/2.1 TRB/2.3 AST/ WS 33.2

How does a 15th-round pick win an Olympic Gold Medal (1960) an All-Star game’s MVP award (1966) while starting his pro career with the Akron Wingfoots? That’s Adrian Smith, a 6’1 shooting guard who’s possibly the best low-round pick in NBA history. After getting selected in the 15th round, he joined the Air Force, played basketball there, and garnered a spot on the Olympics team that won gold and is still considered the greatest amateur team ever. The entire team earned a place in the Basketball Hall of Fame. Oh. Smith played 10 productive seasons in the NBA and one in the ABA before calling it quits to become a banker.

Mike Riordan

1967 draft, Round 12, New York Knicks

Years active: 1968-1977

9.9 PPG/ 2.4 TRB/ 1.4 AST/ WS: 33.2

The 6’4 guard/forward is an indelible part of New York Knicks lore. He played on the 1970 championship team as a valuable bench player who appeared in every game that year. In 1971, he was involved in one of the biggest trades in team history when he and Dave Stallworth went to the Washington Bullets for Earl Monroe. Riordan had three great years from 1972 to 1974, never averaging less than 15.4 ppg. But he quit after the 1976-77 season, frustrated because the Bullets wanted him to come off the bench. He was an undersized tweener who, through hustle and guile, scored 6,334 points in his career and made the NBA All-Defense Second team (1973). That’s one hell of a career for anyone but especially impressive for a player selected in the 12th round.

Jack George

1953 draft, round 13, Philadelphia Warriors

Years active: 1953-1961

10.2 PPG/4.2 TRB/ 4.3 AST/ WS: 17.7

Talk about underrated and underappreciated. After Philadelphia took him, Jack George played eight seasons in the league and finished in the top 10 in assists six times. The 6’2 guard had his best year in 1965. The Warriors won the championship, and he made the All-Star team (he did again in ‘57) and second-team All-NBA. He played his last three seasons with the Knicks in a bench role.

Coming next: The All-Low Round Draft Picks 3rd Team

Long-time journalist Ray Marcano freelances for some of the country’s most prominent brands and writes the Sunday opinion column for the Dayton Daily News. He’s the former National President of the Society of Professional Journalists, a two-time Pulitzer juror, a Fulbright Fellow, and a die-hard Knicks fan.

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