This is fine
(Sips coffee)
Ever the weatherman in search of sunshine, I woke up this morning struggling to find something - anything - positive to latch onto as the Knicks travel to Dallas with the worst record in the league.
As I was searching, I took a minute to scroll through Twitter, and I noticed people already throwing around the “T” word, which, after last season, I vowed never to utter again as long as we all shall live.
And then it hit me: this team can’t tank! Through eight games, their four most encouraging players - the four that most make you feel like good things will happen when they’re on the court - have been RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina.
If the definition of tanking (something I wrote multiple columns on last year, shoot me please) is playing your highest pedigree young guys a bunch, then the Knicks are already in a position where there best option for tanking is also their best option for winning.
This is either encouraging or terrifying, and probably a bit of both. It’s encouraging because it means that there is, amidst the stench that has quickly arisen around this team, a quality young core in place. It’s terrifying because, on its face, it would seem that the moves made to amplify this core have not only failed, but failed spectacularly.
This is, of course, a reactionary oversimplification. Reggie Bullock hasn’t played a game. Elfrid Payton has been hurt, and was pretty good when he was healthy. Taj Gibson has been fine. Wayne Ellington is in a vicious shooting slump, but is still doing Wayne Ellington things to try and juice the offense. It’s just that the orange has been squeezed dry.
Really, this falls on Julius Randle, Marcus Morris, and Bobby Portis, and by extension, David Fizdale, Scott Perry, and Steve Mills.
The former three are the additions that have seen by far the most time and have been by far the biggest emphasis of the offense, sporting the second, third and fifth highest usage rates on the team among guys who have played every game.
It is not working.
There are reasons (excuses?) to be had. The team’s brass likely envisioned the offense being initiated, at least somewhat, by a penetrating guard, and Payton and DSJ have been unavailable and/or ineffective. On top of the lack of their preferred point guard, the Knicks have only played eight games. The schedule has been rough, although not overbearingly so.
All of these may be valid, but 1-7 is 1-7, and the numbers surrounding that record indicate that it is anything but a misnomer:
Last night was the clearest example yet that running the offense through Julius Randle - something that was quite clearly part of the plan going into this season - can only get you so far.
On one hand, it’s incredibly encouraging that the Knicks generated 72 points through just under 28 minutes in Detroit, which is phenomenal. On the other hand, almost every one of those points felt earned, with nary an easy bucket in the mix. Even though New York’s offense has had some nice moments this year, nothing about it has felt easy.
Randle and Barrett are doing what they can, but it’s not an accident that among 51 NBA players seeing over 30 minutes a game and sporting a usage rate of at least 21, Barrett (50th) and Randle (51st) have the lowest true shooting percentages of the lot.
Barrett, notably, is 19, and can be forgiven for not yet having the wherewithal to carry an offense on his back.
Randle is different. He’s in the prime of his career, and thought he was ready for this responsibility. Perhaps more importantly, so did this coach and this front office. All parties involved deemed him the leader of the group. His struggles adapting to being an offensive fulcrum - which, frankly, should have been expected and are more forgivable - are one thing. Letting go of the rope on defense - which he did several times last night, including in the first half when his offense was rolling - is quite another.
He is pressing, and learning on the fly, and many of his turnovers have been in an effort to make the “right” play. But right now, the Knicks are scoring four more points per 100 possessions when Randle sits, which even amidst struggles is not what you want to see. The calls to move him to the bench in favor of someone who would add some more fluidity suddenly don’t sound completely insane, but remember: he is not hijacking possessions. The offense is moving through him by design.
At this point, the only question is what - or who - is to blame. Randle alone is an overly convenient target. This isn’t all on him. The excuse that they’ve only played eight times is still valid, barely, but will hold far less water after 12 or 14 games, and none at all after 20. The lack of a penetrating guard is palpably felt on every possession, but really, the wisdom of banking on Elfrid Payton and Dennis Smith Jr. as necessary components to an offense may have been fraught to begin with.
Which gets us to the big guns. How much more could David Fizdale be doing to generate offense? The Knicks complete fewer pick and rolls than all but one team in the league (h/t to @DallasAmico_ for that one), and instead lead the NBA in plays off screens, generating only 6.2 points per possession on such opportunities, which is second to last. Perhaps these scales should tip in the other direction. Rotations and playing time have also been question marks since Day One.
As for the team’s brass, it’s now fair to wonder whether there was a Ricky Rubio-esq addition that they could have unearthed, perhaps even Rubio himself. Replace Randle’s (or Morris’ or Portis’) minutes with a defense-first, penetrating guard who lives to get others involved, and it’s not hard to see the positive effects that could be had on both ends.
But who knows if such an option was even on the table, which gets into whether the guys that New York signed were indeed hand-picked, or the best options willing to come. Neither choice is appealing.
If it’s the former, one would imagine that flexibility for 2021 was part of that equation (Rubio signed for three guaranteed years, as did Thomas Satoransky, who was probably the second best “gettable” point guard on the market. Either would be helping immensely right now).
Maybe Payton or Smith Jr. comes back, takes the reigns just competently enough to get the offense flowing, Frank & Mitch spearhead the effort on defense, and the young core continues to improve enough to make that decision to remain flexible seem pertinent. Or maybe not, and what we’ve seen will continue to be what we get.
Is it too early to be asking any of these questions? In fairness, it probably is. I’ve written myself that adjustment periods often manifest themselves in ways we don’t expect, and eight games is a short amount of time to draw any conclusions, let alone the first eight with a brand new team that is also incredibly young.
As is often the case, things are never as bad as they seem during a losing streak, especially in this town. You have to like what you’ve seen from the young players, and for as much as we may want to question whether this coach and this front office should be the ones to shepherd these kids from here on in, they also have to get some credit not only for the good things we’ve seen from the neophytes thus far, but for the fact that they are here to begin with.
Still: there is now officially a sense of unease surrounding the 2019-20 New York Knicks. To some, that’s probably the understatement of the year; to others, it’s so obvious that it need not be said at all, and almost any year from the last 20 could be inserted to make the statement work, like the sport’s most devious Mad Lib, where hilarity is sure to ensue, and the only question is what’s generating the laughter.
Regardless, the new culture that they’ve spoken about for over a year is now officially already being put to the test, and it’s perfectly valid to wonder whether whatever it was that got KP to sour on this organization to begin with has indeed been fixed, and whether the young players who have been the lone bright spot to this season will be susceptible to the same ills.
It’s not a question I, nor any Knick fan, wanted to ask ever again. And yet here we are.
If ever a team needed a win, just to feel good about itself for a moment, it’s this one, right now. It won’t be one that comes easy.
On to Dallas they go, surely searching for answers, and maybe avoiding some questions as well.
They won’t be able to avoid them for much longer.
Let’s very quickly hit the categories:
One Big Thing
Why put Mitch back in?
While I haven’t yet gotten on the “RJ’s minutes will be the death of us all” bandwagon, what happened last night is inexcusable:
Like, that can’t happen. Ever. It’s the first time I felt like the pressure on this coaching staff to win truly took away from their ability to make a responsible decision.
It needs to be addressed.
Unpopular Opinion
Marcus Morris should remain a starter
There were a lot of early season calls for him to go to the bench, but at this point, it feels like defensive accountability is (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) the most important thing this team needs to sort out. Offensive struggles are inconvenient; the defense we’ve seen in snippets has been embarrassing.
The on/off numbers indicate Morris has actually been the team’s worst defender, but early season numbers like this are noisy, and the eye test says otherwise. He is far from perfect, but he does not engage in what anyone would call “lazy” possessions.
As for the right pieces around him, who knows…
Stat of the Night
50.0 percent
That’s what the Pistons shot from deep last night. Granted, they’re 3rd in the league in this stat, but if anything, that goes to show that New York was ill-prepared for what was coming.
Made Me Smile
Frank. Just Frank.
I’ll let Clarence Gaines express how I felt watching Frank Ntilikina in the first half last night:
Keeper.
Final Thought
Figure it out. Just figure it out. No one is coming to rescue this situation.
It’s on y’all.