This Is The Way

I cracked Leon Rose's secret code. Get excited.

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Now, on to the Friday Edition…

News & Notes

• Our long national nightmare is nearly over. Knicks basketball is back.

  (OK, maybe not quite. The Knicks have long been a bit of a nightmare themselves. But to their credit, when they lose, they don’t stand up in front of reporters after the game and try to convince us that they've actually won)

  Late Thursday night, the Players Association voted to approve the NBA’s restart plan which will give us a 72-game season starting on December 22 - 46 days from now! - and camps that open on December 1. As previously reported here, there will be a significant reduction in travel (25 percent).

  As for the start of free agency, the players are pushing for it ASAP - perhaps as early as November 19 or 20 according to Shams - and although the cap will remain at $109 million this season, the cap and the tax line will grow at least two percent per year until the NBA can make up the difference in the money it’s losing by arbitrarily inflating what teams can spend in the immediate future. How long will it take to make up roughly half a billion dollars? Your guess is as good as mine.

  (One thing that might help speed up the process: a limited number of fans paying a boatload of money to watch games courtside and from suites, which Shams reported earlier in the day is a goal for the league)

  Finally, and most importantly for content creators and fans alike, trade restrictions will likely be lifted by November 16 (although now that the cap numbers are set, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a flurry of deals get reported before then. Teams have been talking, and this offseason will be short enough as it is)

• According to Mike Vorkunov, James Dolan reached out to Leon Rose about running the Knicks about a week before firing Steve Mills. If you’re an Athletic subscriber, I highly recommend checking out the full story, which has several quotes from high ranking people about Rose’s chances of turning the team around, and is generally awesome on top of that.

• Speaking of must-reads, Zach Lowe dropped an encyclopedia’s worth of offseason scuttlebutt (drink!), several tidbits from which involve the Knicks:

  • Regarding the possibility of New York trading up to 2, Lowe theorizes that they might offer 8, Kevin Knox, and both Dallas picks, but that this wouldn’t be enough to get a deal done. He also notes that RJ and Mitch appear off limits in any trade discussions.

  • As I’ve reported here, the Knicks at one time had interest in Victor Oladipo, but it has since cooled, and “they might have shifted into ‘wait and watch’ mode.”

  • Their interest in offering Fred VanVleet a large contract that pays him around $20 million annually is unclear. Reminder that Ian Begley noted on the pod the other day that he’d be surprised if VanVleet was the first major move of the Rose regime.

  • Keeping with the theme of this offseason, Zach notes that overall intel coming out of New York is “blurry.” On one hand, it seems like the are willing to take on bad money, but on the other, they have a desire to make roster moves that help their team in the season ahead. According to Lowe, “it might be as simple as New York pivoting from ‘dumping ground’ to ‘talent acquisition’ mode only for a small bucket of players under some age threshold and available at the right price.”

• Finally, Onyeka Okongwu is meeting with the Cavaliers this week, and has recently met with the Hornets, Spurs and Wizards. Was believes Okongwu won’t slip past 9 to Washington, which puts the Knicks in a nice position if someone is desperate enough to jump up and grab him.

Tweet of the Night

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn

Source: All Votes Counted.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn

The NBPA player rep vote has completed, approving a December 22 start/72-game regular season, source tells ESPN. Next up: NBA/NBPA finishes financial terms on amended CBA, which will take into next week. Expect trade moratorium to be lifted shortly prior to Nov. 18 Draft.

Support Your Independent Content Producers

If you think the Knicks need shooting and want a great breakdown on one of the best shooters in the draft, check out this piece on Isaiah Joe from Strickland writer Jack Huntley.

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This Is The Way

When’s the last time you had a revelation that hit you like a ton of bricks?

For me, it was when I realized that I could get my daughter to do a thing that I wanted her to do by telling her that if she didn’t do the thing, daddy was going to leave and not come back. I thought of this a few months ago when she said she was going to kick me out of the house after I disallowed her from having ice cream.

“Fine…bye.”

And off I went, making it halfway down the driveway before her screams brought me back in the house.

Since then, I haven’t dipped into this well too often, but it has become my go-to move for anytime my wife and I have exhausted our patience reserves for the day. So basically every day.

(As for any accusations about future “daddy issues” that I’m instilling in her at a young age, I promise she gets all the love in the world. Plus, in 15 years, we’ll all be in therapy anyway, so really this is just free content for her future shrink)

That was the last time I had such a revelation…until right smack dab in the middle of my podcast this week with Ian Begley, when suddenly, Leon Rose’s grand plan for the Knicks appeared to me like a vision from the heavens.

The light bulb went on as we were talking about their approach to free agency this offseason. Ian echoed something we’d both heard at various points, not only during the brief tenure of Leon Rose, but under Steve Mills as well: 2021 flexibility remained important, if not sacrosanct, and Begs specifically mentioned maintaining one max slot as important. Hold that thought.

Earlier in the same day, both Begs and Woj confirmed something that seemed to run counter to Rose’s max-slot priority, which is that no star is dying to come to New York alone, and definitely not without the certainty that this regime can put one foot in front of the other without tripping. Put this one aside for a moment as well.

At the same time as all this free agency talk, we have heard, almost ad nauseam, how New York’s hiring of Kenny Payne, Johnnie Bryant, Walt Perrin, etc., is more than just a ploy to attract stars down the line. They have had their Come-to-Jesus moment and now believe in acting like a normal organization. Drafting and developing will be at the heart of their efforts. Praise to the heavens, indeed.

We have also heard that this season will not be a march to the most lottery balls in the NBA, at least not intentionally. They will try to acquire players that can help them look like a professional basketball team, and that every player acquisition they make - whether through free agency, regular trade or via salary dump (as Zach Lowe noted yesterday) - will be in furtherance of this effort, which will itself be in furtherance of creating a positive developmental environment where losing is never accepted, even if it might be inevitable.

And finally, we have been told that Leon Rose is in the business of keeping the valuable assets he has and acquiring additional ones if possible, possibly with the notion of putting a package together to acquire a better pick in next year’s draft.

Got all that?

If you’ve read all of the above and interpreted the collective reporting as mixed signal nonsense meant to keep us all guessing, I can’t blame you. I’ve pondered the same thing at times. And despite what you’re about to read, I’m still not completely sure I know what they’re up to (or, for that matter, if they’re up to anything other than “don’t do anything dumb”)

But for whatever reason, I cannot escape the cloud of clarity that has engulfed me since the other night. I believe there is a plan here, and I believe that I know what it is. It is a flexible plan, but a plan nonetheless. And if the Knicks have their way, a year from right now, they will be in a better position than at any time this century.

Stay with me now, as I go through the three parts of Leon Rose’s version of the bank heist from Heat…

1. This season will have one goal but two ideal, interrelated outcomes.

   First, and of utmost paramountcy: Look competent. In other words, give off the opposite organizational impression than the stench they’ve emitted for most of the last 20 years. This has to occur behind the scenes - something they’re already doing with the lack of leaks - and on the court, where wins will be less important than a clear style of play, commitment to a few key tenets, and not getting smoked on the regular. Basically, just not this:

   

   Related: they must build an attractive asset base, starting with the players. Playing a consistently decent brand of basketball will help this, but there is going to be a better balance between wins achieved on the back of a hot shooting performance from Bobby Portis and those like we saw late last year against Miami and Houston, when the kids showed up and showed out, at least a bit.

   (For anyone still wondering why the Knicks are in the Chris Paul sweepstakes, understand that he helps advance this goal in every way. He’s also, as Ian theorized to me on the pod, a fantastic mouthpiece to the rest of the league that, yes, these guys have their shit together.

   As for the last year of his contract, keep in mind that it is a player option, which can be declined in favor of an extension at more years and less dollars. Lest you think this is nuts, remember that Rose himself negotiated exactly this type of opt out & extend with Dwyane Wade once upon a time.)

2. Next up: Hit the trade market.

   Trading for a star is hard and complicated. Not only do you need buy in from the star himself, but the assets to get a deal done. With players having fewer and fewer qualms about making their desires known, this may dampen the market, but it’s still no picnic. If an organization is going to trade a real star, they’re usually going to need a star (or someone who has the promise of future stardom) back in return.

   That’s why step one is so important. By the end of next season, someone on New York’s roster needs to assert himself as a player that another team can talk itself into being a guy. Maybe not the guy, but a guy. Think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Brandon Ingram, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, or pre-injury Isaiah Thomas, all guys who were dealt for All-NBA players in the last five seasons.

   Maybe that’s someone they draft. Maybe it’s RJ or Mitch or (“Do you believe in miracles…YAAASSSSSS!!!”) Kevin Knox. Maybe it’s Fred VanVleet.

   How good this piece needs to be to act as a central figure in such a trade depends, of course, on the draft asset(s) they can package with it, which is where that asset chest comes in. The more they get, the freer they’ll be to wheel, deal, move up, and generally be able to put together a competitive offer for whomever they target.

   And because it wouldn’t be one of my newsletters without some names to throw around, would it really shock you to see any of the following on the market next offseason, if not sooner: either of the Philly guys, James Harden, Bradley Beal, Dame Lillard, Devin Booker (despite recent protestations from some folks in Phoenix), De’Aaron Fox, and yes, Donovan Mitchell.

3. Finally, say it with me now friends: Rose wants to attract a star in free agency. But not on a hope, a prayer and the bright lights of Broadway. With a real, actual, desirable situation he can promote.

   Leon Rose has been described as many things, but naïve ain’t one of ‘em. If it’s one thing I remember from practicing law - something Rose did quite successfully for a number of years before becoming an agent, unlike yours truly - it’s that you need to be honest about the situation you find yourself in. Sitting back and hoping for the best leads to certain demise. Just ask Steve Mills.

   Maintaining an open cap is one part of landing a stud, as is creating an environment that is respected around the NBA, but as the alleged architect of Miami’s Big Three, he knows better than anyone that stars don’t come alone (Jimmy Butler is barely an exception; the Heat as an organization are unparalleled top to bottom).

   In case we needed a reminder of this, I got from from Ian on Wednesday, when he reported that he’d heard from a star who is soon to hit free agency that he would not be the first one to come to New York. I’m assuming he said nothing about being the second.

   The potential class of 2021 has been well documented: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Anthony Davis (depending on what he does in a few weeks), Giannis, Jrue Holiday, Victor Oladipo (assuming he’s not washed) and yes, LeBron James.

   It’s easy to look at some of these names and think “no chance” (and maybe a few others and think “no thanks”), but as they say, it only takes one. The challenge for Leon Rose will be convincing that “one” that he’s not an asshole for taking a chance on the Knicks, and my guess is that everything he does over the next 8 to 10 months will be in service of that goal. That means getting a running mate in place first, which only happens with the baby steps I outlined in Step 1.

I’m actually ashamed that, as someone who ponders all things Knicks on a daily basis, it took me so long to put this all together. Again, maybe something changes. Perhaps they luck into Cade Cunningham next year, and pivot towards a slower approach. Or maybe someone on the current roster unexpectedly explodes into stardom (don’t hold your breath).

But if things play out as I’ve predicted, just be prepared. Otherwise the shock might knock you over like a ton of bricks, leaving you belly up, like an obese turtle on his back, flailing around in the hot, hot sun. And really, no one wants to see that.

Now let’s get on with it and see if I’m right. Knicks basketball is almost here. And in the craziest of crazy years, that is absolutely something worth celebrating.

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