Too Soon
Seven games in, and Fire Fiz talk is already here. Really?
There were more than a few frustrating moments for Knick fans this summer. I’m sure if you’re reading this, you can think of one or two that stood out for you in particular.
My low point was during Zach Lowe’s rant about the Knicks a few weeks ago, not because he said something I vehemently thought was wrong, but because he said something I feared was right. It was when he insinuated that season ahead might cost David Fizdale his job.
Let me preface this by saying quite clearly: I have no earthly clue whether Fiz is a good coach or not. I’m fairly certain he’s not a great coach and slightly less certain that he’s not a terrible coach, but even those are educated guesses.
As far as evidence goes, I have access to the same as everyone else: 107 games in Memphis, in which he took a 42-win team that got swept by the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs and turned them into a 43-win team that got beat by the Spurs in six games in the first round of the playoffs. We also have last season. If you can draw any conclusions from what he did with that roster, more power to you.
We know other stuff. We know he’s gotten into it with some Europeans and that the two men who came to symbolize the last decade of NBA basketball more than perhaps any others absolutely swear by him. We know Mike Conley cried when the Grizzlies fired him, and wished he could have done more to save his job. We know he doesn’t believe in load management for 19-year-olds, his rotations fluctuate often, and he’s anything but an X’s & O’s genius. We really don’t know much else.
So when Lowe posited (not reported, to be 100% clear) that Fiz very well might not survive this season, I wasn’t upset because I was all in on David Fizdale as the next Pat Riley or Jeff Van Gundy. I was upset because I feared that the reason Lowe gave - that he’d be wrongly blamed for his inability to succeed with a clunky roster that no mortal human could possibly win with - would indeed be Fizdale’s undoing.
If you’ve read anything in this space before, you know that I’ve defended New York’s offseason, not as a success, but as the best they could have done under the circumstances. I’ve also repeatedly said that I didn’t envy Fizdale’s job when it came to managing the rotation this year, and that ultimately the team’s success of failure would be determined by a) how well he could manage the locker room and b) whether they could somehow squeeze 48 minutes of competent point guard play out of this roster.
So far, after some apparent early grumbling, these Knicks have held strong amidst the losing. Despite all but a few guys getting consistent minutes, there hasn’t been a peep. We haven’t seen a lack of effort, save for a few minutes in the home games vs Boston and Sacramento when things really started to get away. On defense - the clearest indicator of whether a team is trying or not - the team ranks 20th, up from 28th last year.
As for the whole point guard thing, so far Fiz has missed his opening night starter for half the minutes the team has played, and had the guy many presumed to be his opening night starter be secretly replaced by a beer delivery guy with a Dennis Smith Jr. mask on, before tragedy struck and he was lost as well.
He has been left to try to generate offense through:
a 21-year-old point guard shooting under 30 percent on the year who, for all his gifts, does not drive the lane, really ever;
a 19-year-old shooting guard; and
a 24-year-old power forward.
Wouldn’t you know, things have been a struggle.
Thankfully, I had nothing to worry about. Lowe was clearly misguided, because he forgot: we have the smartest fan base in all of sports! We’re passionate, sure, but not reactionary to the point of ignoring cold hard facts that would make even the insinuation of firing this man at this point in the season seem preposterous.
Our fan base is intelligent enough to recognize that despite a roster full of iso-heavy players and no real point guard (at least by the standards of the modern game), the Knicks are 8th in the NBA in passes per game.
We’re smart enough to know that during the 102 minutes Elfrid Payton has played this year, the Knicks have a 112.4 offensive rating, and are outscoring teams by 3.9 points per 100 possessions, two numbers that would rank 3rd and 11th in the NBA this year, respectfully.
We’re wise enough to see that New York has played five playoff teams from last year and had a fourth quarter lead in four of those games, including three on the road.
We’re savvy enough to realize that RJ Barrett’s minute-load, as with every major component of this team’s execution, is an organizational decision, that this isn’t a Thibs/GarPax situation where the head coach has gone rogue, and if anyone deserves blame, it’s the entire brain trust, not just Fiz.
(as an aside, please show me evidence of the hand-wringing that took place during the 12-game stretch from last December 9 to January 4 when Kevin Knox averaged 37.9 minutes per game, more than RJ is averaging right now)
We have enough foresight to know that, even if David Fizdale really is the worst head coach in the history of basketball, firing him after 10 or 20 games and saddling (I’m assuming) Mike Miller with the same issues would only mean taking a potentially promising candidate and starting off his at bat with two strikes.
And surely we’re all smart enough to recognize that this roster - one with nine new faces (10 if you count Dennis Smith Jr.), an injured starting point guard, their best two-way floor spacer still out from back surgery, and eight players with zero, one or two years of NBA experience - has been together for seven – seven – regular season games, and that it might take a little more time to gel.
But more than anything, this fan base could never be so preposterously ignorant as to forget that if this franchise fired its coach after the offseason it just had, where barbs and arrows were fired their way from every corner of the internet, they would be (justifiably) pilloried by any and every respected NBA media person who had access to a keyboard, and the hard-earned reputation this organization needs so desperately to shed would be reinforced that much more.
Surely this couldn’t be the case.
Instead, I’m confident in this fan base to temper their overreactions to one horrendous game. I know that, if and when the time comes to move on from David Fizdale, it’ll be more than apparent, and such a move would occur when there’s more than a sliver of available evidence to draw conclusions from.
So barring the team clearly quitting or a locker room mutiny or some other calamity, I’m asking nicely: can we please quash this talk so soon into the year? I ask this not because of an assumption of competence on my part towards this coach, but because assuming incompetence with so little to go on, even if that assumption turns out to be correct, is terrible, terrible process.
And that is something this organization needs to start to avoid, at some point, more than anything, to get this ship turned around.
That’s it from me today, but we have SO much more for you on this off day…
A look at RJ Barrett’s minutes from Alex Collins
A look at RJ Barrett’s awesomeness from Tom Piccolo
Knicks Kicks of the Night from Tiffany Salmon
“On this date…” by Vivek Dadhania
News & Notes compiled by Michael Schatz
Read is all below!
RJ Barrett’s Minutes are Becoming a Thing
by Alex Collins (@MrAlexCollins)
The topic of load management has recently divided Knicks fans more than any other topic that does not relate to Frank Ntilikina’s ability to play basketball.
Some see the practice as players being soft while some see the benefit of ensuring a healthy and refreshed player when the playoffs role around. The playoffs might be just out of realistic expectations for the Knicks this season, but we still need to address the topic of load management as it relates to our potential perennial All-Star, RJ Barrett.
Throughout the first seven games of the season, RJ has averaged an impressive 18.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game and many would consider him a front runner for Rookie of the Year following the injury to Zion Williamson. RJ’s play is positively impacting the Knicks play as well: the Knicks average 10.81 more free throws per 100 possessions, play at a higher pace (99.514/96.926) and are scoring 7.61 points per 100 possessions more with RJ on the floor.
These numbers are fantastic, especially coming from the 5th youngest player in the NBA, but do they justify RJ averaging 37.1 minutes per game on a team that is likely to miss the playoffs and is only in the second year of a rebuild? I don’t believe so.
The evolution of the game is resulting in more injuries
As game density and intensity has increased league-wide, we are seeing a correlation to muscular strains and bone-related injuries sustained. For four years straight, muscle-related injuries accounted for the highest percentage of games lost with a big uptick in tendon injuries. Bone-related injuries have accounting for 22 percent of total games lost so far this season. This is shown in Figure 1 below, which displays the normalized importance of each variable as it relates to injuries sustained within the NBA.
As shown, the strongest correlations to injuries sustained are average game speed, total games played in a season, average distance run, average minutes played and average field goals attempted. RJ currently leads the league in average distance run (2.83 miles per game) and is 5th in minutes per game (37.1 mpg).
Figure 1: a ranked list of all variables normalized. The x-axis shows the normalized importance of each variable.
RJ Barrett is Ready
by Tom Piccolo (@Tom_Piccolo)
Toss out all your “small sample size” caveats. Discard any “let’s wait and see” reservations. Do you hear that wary part of your brain? The part that’s whispering cautious thoughts to protect your heart because it’s been broken too many times before. Disregard all that, Knicks fans. Abandon all doubt ye who enter here.
RJ Barrett is ready to be anointed.
I have to say, this is not what I expected. As someone who doesn’t watch much NCAA basketball (due to lack of time, not basketball snobbery), my perceptions of young prospects rely heavily on analysis from media members and, alas, Basketball Twitter. The criticism I saw levied against Barrett was the kind that scares me most: selfish, doesn’t make his teammates better, can’t create separation off the dribble, inconsistent shooter.
But it wasn’t just the media. Even fellow NCAA players who anonymously voted in a poll for The Athletic ranked Barrett as the most overrated player in the country. Sometimes, media and players evaluate talent incorrectly; sometimes, they misjudge how certain abilities will translate at the next level. This is one of those times. Even after just seven games played, I’ve seen enough. RJ Barrett is the real deal.
Some parts of his game have come as a pleasant surprise. Entering into the league, one knock on him was that, despite being a good playmaker for his position, he simply didn’t pass enough. But, he has already shown that he can be a smart pick-and-roll ball handler at the NBA level, willing to both score and pass depending on the situation. So far, he has already developed a strong pick-and-roll chemistry with Mitchell Robinson, the recipient of the highest number of Barrett’s assists. I’m consistently impressed with how patient Barrett is dishing out of the pick-and-roll. Watch here as he drives to his right and finds a rolling Robinson at the last possible second for the dunk:
This next play didn’t directly result in an assist, but it shows Barrett’s patience and savvy.
Knicks Kicks
by Tiffany Salmon (@tiffstarr815)
On This Date: Pat Riley wins his first game as Knicks head coach and KCD make their debut
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
The Knicks won their first game of the season, fittingly, at Madison Square Garden by routing the Milwaukee Bucks 113-85. This game marked the first win of the Pat Riley era after being blown out for the first two games of the season. Newly acquired Xavier McDaniel led the team with 28 points and 13 rebounds. Mark Jackson led the team with 9 assists and scored 16 points. Patrick Ewing scored 24 points and blocked 3 shots in 34 minutes.
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Knicks Nuance makes a wonderful debut for P&T, talking us all off the ledge a bit.
Marc Berman had a lovely early season hit piece.
Anthony Davis says Chicago is better than New York. Gold star for him.
That’s it! Knicks next play Wednesday night in Detroit. See you tomorrow!