Top 5 Free Agency Questions

Mikal? Mitch? The Midlevel? And what's going on in LA? I set the stage for the start of free agency.

Good morning! Before we get into my top free agency questions, here’s a quick news roundup from a busy weekend:

• The Knicks extended a qualifying offer to Kevin McCullar, picked up Ariel Hukporti’s contract option, and will decline the team option of PJ Tucker. They can still sign Tucker to the veteran minimum.

• Per Steve Popper, Jason Kidd still hasn’t “gotten clarity from the Mavericks” on a possible extension.

• Dink Pate, a 6’7 guard with strong physical tools and a lot of upside who spent time with the G-League Ignite, will be with the Knicks in Summer League.

• Speaking of Vegas, here’s the schedule:

  

• Julius Randle is staying in Minny a new three-year, $100 million deal which includes a player option for the 2027-28 season. Fair number for both sides, and happy Julius has seemingly found a home. The Wolves also inked Naz Reid to a new 5-year, $125 contract

• The Utah Jazz traded Collin Sexton and a second-round pick to the Hornets for Jusuf Nurkic. This one was a bit of puzzler. Sexton is good, and Nurkic might be done as a quality rotation big man

• The Bulls traded Lonzo Ball to the Cavs for Issac Okoro. Nice deal for Cleveland

• The U.S. District Attorney’s office is investigating Pistons guard Malik Beasley on allegations of gambling related to NBA games and prop bets. Uh oh

• Masai Ujiri is out as head of basketball ops of the Toronto Raptors

• The Blazers bought out the final year of Deandre Ayton’s contract, worth $36.5 million. No, the Knicks should not be interested,

• Another surprise: Duncan Robinson declined his $20 million early termination option to become a free agent. He may still be back with the Heat

• James Harden declined his option to sign a new two-year, $81.5 million contract in LA

• Bobby Portis will sign a three-year, $44 million contract to return to Milwaukee

• Sam Merrill is signing a four-year, $38 million contract to stay with the Cavaliers

• OKC big man Jaylin Williams is signing a new three-year, $24 million contract extension

• Kelly Oubre Jr. is picking up his $8.4 million player option to stay in Philly

• Davion Mitchell will sign a two-year, $24 million deal to return to Miami

• Dorian Finney-Smith declined his $15.4 million player option with the Lakers

• Jabari Smith Jr. is signing a five-year, $122 million rookie extension with the Rockets

• The Orlando Magic declined team options on Moe Wagner and Caleb Houstan

OK, let’s get to the newsletter!

Top 5 Questions at the Start of Free Agency

Free agency begins today at 6 pm.

About half of the NBA’s 30 teams have already made news going into this evening, whether because of a trade, an extension, or an option decision. As for the Knicks, we haven’t heard so much as a peep.

Should we read anything into that? That’s just one of many questions worth asking as the NBA calendar officially flips to a new league year.

Here are my top five:

1. What’s up with LeBron?

It’s the ultimate testament to LeBron’s longevity that 22 years after he was drafted into the NBA, his agent can send shockwaves through the league with a single ominous quote:

“He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all. We are very appreciative of the partnership that we’ve had for eight years with Jeanie [Buss] and Rob [Pelinka] and consider the Lakers as a critical part of his career. We understand the difficulty in winning now while preparing for the future. We do want to evaluate what's best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count, and the Lakers understand that, are supportive and want what's best for him.”

These words came in the aftermath of James picking up his $52.6 million player option for next season, which would seem like an odd thing to do for someone who has designs on leaving until you remember that this is the NBA in 2025, where it’s actually easier to switch locations when you’re under contract than when you aren’t.

When I heard the news and read the quotes, I wasn’t quite sure whether I wanted to address it today, mostly because giving credence to any LeBron-related thing in Knicks land brands you for life.

I think there are two camps of Knick content creators out there when it comes to this stuff:

1. Those who will jump at any breadcrumb which could maybe possibly connect James to the Knicks, or…

2. Those who won’t touch LeBron news with a 10-foot pole.

At this point, I think the vast majority of Knick fans (or at least the ones I interact with) prefer the latter. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me…what is it now…six times? Eight times? By the time we got to the last dalliance - remember the Klutch summit last February? - I’d lost count.

Whatever the number is up to, anyone who thinks twice about James in a Knick uniform at this point should probably be tarred and feathered.

And yet here it is, atop my little list.

It will probably wind up looking ridiculous. Those who know better have sworn for years that LeBron will never play in another uniform, and if he did, it would be back in Cleveland. Those people are probably right. That said, the Rich Paul quotes intrigued me a ton, for three main reasons…

1. James usually pulls these shenanigans to pressure the front office into making win-now moves rather than hoarding their assets. Well over the last several years, the Lakers haven’t really acquiesced, and it has shown up in the results: three first round exists and one missed postseason since their 2020 title. Now, instead of having to make moves around two aging stars, they have 26-year-old Luka Doncic on the roster. They have assets - a tradable first in 2031 and tradable swaps in 2028, 2030 and 2032 - but they’re also slated to have a relatively clean cap sheet a year from now. If they thought it wise to bide their time and build up the war chest over the last few seasons, why wouldn’t they double down on that strategy now, with Doncic seemingly set to sign a massive extension? Dorian Finney-Smith opting out of his player option probably doesn’t help matters either.

2. There are very few teams that theoretically have the desire and the assets to trade for James and still be considered contenders after such a deal. I count three: the Clippers (who the Lakers would never, ever send LeBron to), the Cavs and the Knicks. As for Cleveland, shout out to Jason M for reminding me that the Cavs can’t aggregate salaries in a trade because they’re a second apron team, which means they’d have to dump significant money before doing something built around Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen. New York would have no such restriction. Maybe there’s another realistic LeBron suitor out there, but if there is, I don’t see it.

3. Did I mention how things seemed a little too quiet? Maybe the front office really does feel like the Knicks’ roster is a new coach away from a title. Or maybe, as Fred Katz told me over the weekend, James Dolan played a far bigger role in the Thibs firing than it was initially thought and that several front office members were actually caught off guard by his ouster. If that’s true, it stands to reason that some in the front office might feel like the current group doesn’t quite have the goods to go all the way. With limited means of improvement and no stars on the trade market at the moment, will they really just run the same core back?

When news broke that Kevin Durant wanted New York but New York didn’t want Kevin Durant, it seemed like confirmation that Leon Rose was not going to move core pieces for a player closer to 40 than 30. Either that, or they know something about the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo that we all don’t.

Perhaps that’s all still true. Or perhaps the Knicks simply didn’t want to be in the KD business.

Whatever the reason, one has to wonder if the Tyrese Haliburton injury - suffered the night Durant was traded - made the front office reconsider just how “all in” they should be next season.

James and the Knicks have been circling one another for a decade and a half. He just finished sixth in MVP voting and was in the running for First Team All-NBA. The Knicks have a lack of playmaking and are increasingly reliant on their point guard to generate the lion’s share of offense. We’ve spoken for months about whether a new coach could fully unlock Karl-Anthony Towns. Maybe getting one of the best passers in the history of the sport would work even better.

Obviously such a move would come at a significant cost both on the court and off, and longer conversations would need to be had if this ever became more than a glorified piece of fan fiction.

At this point, I just wonder how interested they’d be in a one-season marriage, if at all.

2. What’s up with the Coach?

Quite frankly, I don’t know what to make of the fact that the Knicks are the only team in the NBA currently without a head coach. We can talk about the reasons why the seat is still empty nearly three weeks after it opened up, and why the search has at times seemed haphazard, and whether all of that has to do with the firing being far less planned than we might have originally suspected.

It’s all water under the bridge. Right now, the Knicks have the second best odds to win the 2026 NBA championship, and yet we have no idea who is going to be manning the sidelines. That’s both encouraging and terrifying.

Glass half full, the front office is united in their vision for the team, such that whichever coach they wind up hiring won’t impact what they do - or don’t do - over the next several days.

Glass half empty, they might be missing out on a valuable opportunity to have an extra voice in the room - perhaps the most important voice - as they consider trades and signings in the hours and days to come.

I keep coming back to Mitchell Robinson as one example. He has such a particular skill set that opens up a host of opportunities but also presents certain limitations. Will the next coach view him as a 30-minute starter, strictly a backup big, or somewhere in between? How would the answer impact a possible extension? And if he isn’t extended, might they be missing out on the best opportunity to move him for full value as teams are already scrambling to fill holes in their rosters across the league?

At the very least, it would be better to have a coach in the building, all things being equal. It’s just a question of how detrimental not having one will wind up being.

3. What’s up with Mikal Bridges?

I keep coming back to the idea of leverage. Someone always has it in any negotiation. Last summer, OG Anunoby was pretty clearly in the driver’s seat, but the Knicks just as clearly didn’t mind. They knew what they were getting into when they traded for him, and he more than held up his end of the bargain.

The same can’t really be said of Mikal Bridges. After an inconsistent regular season, he had an inefficient postseason, albeit with some outstanding fourth quarters and other memorable moments. His defensive synergy with Karl-Anthony Towns never improved, and KAT doesn’t appear to be going anywhere.

I went into detail two weeks ago on why Bridges was still holding a strong hand in these negotiations, but above all else, the Knicks need to believe he’s a core part of their future if they’re going to pay him.

Since I wrote that, the window for negotiating an extension opened up. They’ve now had a week to come to an agreement, and thus far, we’ve heard nothing. Meanwhile, former Knick Julius Randle agreed to a three-year, $100 million deal to stay in Minnesota. My informed guess is that he’d have accepted roughly the same deal to stay in New York, and yet the two sides never even had substantive extension negotiations because they knew they were so far apart, as Fred Katz restated to me on Friday after originally reporting it last summer.

The team clearly had misgivings about a long term future with Randle, which is why he’s no longer here. Could the same be said of Bridges, who is eligible to sign for one more season and 56 million additional dollars? We’ll find out soon.

4. What’s up with the center spot?

It’s easily the position that carries the most amount of intrigue, for a variety of reasons.

Primarily, after 96 games of KAT at center, Thibs switched up his starting five to close out the Pacers series. Was Thibodeau fired because he made that choice, or because he made it far too late?

The answer could determine how the next 24-72 hours go for New York.

If they think that KAT needs to play a decent amount of power forward, then it would seem like a no brainer to extend Mitch and target a center with the midlevel in free agency (more on that in a bit).

If they want to lean even further into an offense-first approach, maybe Mitch gets dangled in trade talks to acquire someone who might bring more shooting to the starting five, and they sure up the center spot with a lesser player on the vet minimum.

Oh, and how might Ariel Hukporti fit into all of this after the front office picked up his second year option yesterday? Huk looked the part in limited minutes last year. If he takes a step forward, a rotation spot shouldn’t be out of the question.

5. What’s up with the Midlevel?

It’s not a coincidence that the taxpayer midlevel exception has been used just twice in the last two seasons, both times by the Denver Nuggets, and neither with much success.

The amount of money - $5.7 million for the 2025-26 NBA season - is just small enough where you’re out of range for the better free agents but just large enough that signing the wrong guy can really jam up your cap sheet moving forward.

The Knicks are perilously close to the second apron as it is and using the TPMLE would hard cap them at that number. That’s not really the issue though, especially since it would behove them to duck the second apron for another year and they’re close enough where it shouldn’t be a problem. If, on the other hand, they bypass using the midlevel, not only would they have increased maneuverability, but they’d also be able to fill out the roster with more known contributors.

Here’s what I mean:

• Use the midlevel: Assuming New York doesn’t make any trades, using the midlevel would functionally limit them to carrying 14 players on the roster as opposed to 15. They’d also have to sign at least one player with zero years of NBA experience to stay under the second apron, as well as a player with one year of NBA experience (like Kevin McCullar Jr). Essentially, the 10th man would be either a rookie or one of last year’s rookies.

• Don’t use the midlevel: If they bypass using the TPMLE, the Knicks could sign up to four players to veteran minimums, regardless of their level of experience, in addition to McCullar Jr (or any other player with zero or one year of NBA service).

Ian Begley reported yesterday that New York would have interest in bringing Landry Shamet back, which would make sense given how he performed in the postseason. If they re-signed him to the vet minimum in addition to using the TPMLE on someone, they’d be barred from signing any other player with at least two years of service time. There may be a number of quality players on the minimum market who’d like to chase a ring while calling New York home for the next year.

For that reason, don’t be surprised if the taxpayer midlevel goes unused. If they do wind up signing a player by those means, I’d guess it’ll be someone that’s pretty good.

We’ll get answers to all of these questions sooner rather than later. If you want live reaction to any news that breaks in the opening hours of free agency, be sure to tune into the KFS livestream starting at 5pm. Hope to see everyone there.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”