Top 50 Trade Value: All-Star Edition

Time to update the list.

Good morning! I hope everyone enjoyed All-Star weekend.

More importantly, I hope we’re all getting a chance to breath after what was really an action packed four months. From the 2-4 start, to all the talk about “we can’t beat good teams,” to the Mitch injury and December’s defensive downfall, to the franchise-altering trade, to all the wins that followed, to more injuries and another big trade, to wheezing our way into the break, this season has had more plot twists than an episode of Law & Order.

(The original. Not all the crappy spin offs.)

It has gotten us here, hopefully ready to pounce in the final 27 games, starting on Thursday night. First though, we have a week’s worth of off-day content to get to. The next few days will feature a two-part analysis of all modern superstar trade packages, my top five questions for the remainder of the season, and answers to all of your mailbag inquiries, but first, it’s time to update my trade value rankings - right after we look back at All-Star weekend.

News & Notes

🏀 The NBA’s annual league-wide celebration took place in Indianapolis, and a couple of Knicks participated to varying degrees. In the dunk contest, Jacob Toppin was eliminated before the finals in an event that will be remembered more for the random and often befuddling judges scores that anything else. Mac McClung won for the second year in a row.

Earlier in the evening, Jalen Brunson had a respectable showing in the 3-point shootout, but fell one moneyball short of joining a four-way tie at 26 for the first round lead. Tyrese Haliburton wound up falling short in the tiebreaker before Damian Lillard defeated KAT and Trae in the Finals.

Then in the game itself, JB came off the bench and played 17 minutes, scoring 12 points in a 211-186 East win. The game may have been a joke, but at least we got to see our point guard dunk and hang on the rim for a few seconds.

NBA Trade Value Top 50: 2024 ASG Edition

You know the drill by now (and if you don’t, re-read my opening to the November edition of this list for a refresher). This is something I’ve been writing my own version of for nearly a decade now, inspired by my first ever favorite internet sports column by Bill Simmons.

In addition to updated rankings, I’ve included how many spots a player rose or fell since I did this exercise three months ago, or wrote “NC” if there’s been no change. Apologies in advance if I inadvertently left anyone off, although I’m pretty sure I hit everyone of note. Here goes…

1. Nikola Jokic (NC) - An easier No. 1 than he was three months ago.

2. Victor Wembanyama (NC) - Solidifies his place at No. 2 given how things have gone in Milwaukee this season. Would anyone bet their life savings that Antetokounmpo won’t ask out this summer if things go horribly wrong in the playoffs?

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ( ⬆️ 1 )

4. Anthony Edwards ( ⬆️ 1 )

   The two best players on the teams that have been atop the West for the majority of this season, and they are a combined 47 years old. The Minnesota situation (with the perpetual KAT questions and the possibility of an offseason trade driven by financial concerns) is far more tenuous, but it’s a good bet that Ant makes All-NBA and his Supermax kicks in, which could further entrench him as a Wolf for the foreseeable future.

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo ( ⬇️ 2 )

6. Luka Doncic ( ⬆️ 1 )

   I’d rather have Luka than Giannis on my team today, and the gap should only widen in the coming years as Doncic is four years younger than East counterpart. Even so, I can’t shake the feeling that the Mavs have no path to title contention, whereas the Bucks could conceivably remain a threat to win it all until at least the end of next season. Luka has two more years remaining on his deal before a player option - one fewer than Antetokounmpo. That combo, and the possibility that Doncic starts angling for a trade in a matter of months, breaks the tie and pushes the Greek Freak ahead, but this one is truly a toss up to me.

7. Jayson Tatum (NC)

8. Devin Booker (NC)

   Both at the start of their primes, both on great teams, and both seemingly really happy. Not sure either ever becomes a top-five guy, but they clearly belong in this group.

9. Jalen Brunson ( ⬆️ 13 )

10. Tyrese Haliburton ( ⬆️ 1 )

    Neither team would trade their guy for the other. They have similar strengths and similar weakness, and also different strengths and different weaknesses. Each player has a top-five impact league-wide on their locker room and team’s culture, if not top-three.

    The case for Brunson starts his isolation scoring, which is better than Hali’s, even if you account for Haliburton still being the slightly more dangerous pull-up threat from behind the arc. But the gap between JB and Hali in iso scoring is smaller than the gap between Hali and JB in overall playmaking. Only Jokic and Luka are better at elevating those around them. Because of that advantage, I think more teams around the league would take Haliburton over Brunson if they had to pick between the two right now, although I think it would be damn close.

    And yet I couldn’t in good conscious put JB below Tyrese for one simple reason: if they’re surrounded by similar talent, who would you bet your life on bringing you home in the last five minutes of a close playoff game? Hell, how many players in the league would you take over Brunson to do that?

Tier 2: He can still lead us to a title (Group A)

11. Kawhi Leonard (was HM) - That’s right…Kawhi jumped all the way from honorable mentions to Tier 2, and I’m not completely sure he shouldn’t be higher. When I wrote the last version of this column, the Clippers were 5-7 and just 2-5 since the Harden trade. Since the start of December though, they have lost just five games with Leonard in the lineup. More importantly, Leonard has missed just five games all season. He’s on a new deal that extends for the next three seasons, and the Clippers seem pretty well set up to contend for the foreseeable future. Still betting he can be the best player in any playoff series he’s in.

12. Steph Curry ( ⬇️ 3 ) - It’s tempting to use this up and down Warriors seasonas an excuse to knock Curry down a peg, especially with his 36th birthday fast approaching. That would be a mistake. His overall efficiency may be down a bit from his career highs, but he was in his own stratosphere during those MVP-caliber seasons. Now he’s merely alongside others at the head of the pack. Surround him with the right roster and he can absolutely still lead a team to the promised land, and he’s shown no signs of wanting off the Warriors. Their recent surge solidifies his top-10 status.

13. Kevin Durant ( ⬆️ 3) - In the top tier of players, along with Kawhi, Jokic and Steph, who you’d want leading a playoff team at full health. I might be minimizing the durability concerns by bumping him up this high, but his play this season has more than warranted it, and the Suns can beat any team in a seven-game series.

Tier 3: Cornerstones for as long as they want to be

14. Paolo Banchero ( ⬆️ 12) - I had him a couple spots lower going into last week’s Magic game, and then jumped him from 16th to 14th after already bumping him 10 spots higher. Just became the 20th player in the last 30 years to make the All-Star team before his 22nd birthday, and the hit rate on these guys panning out is pretty good. Since I last did this list, he’s upped his scoring (19.1 to 24.3 Pts/Gm) and his usage (25.7 to 30.9) with only a slight dip in efficiency. Looks the part of a perennial All-NBA player. The only question is how high his ceiling goes.

15. Ja Morant ( ⬆️ 14) - Might be putting a little too much into the nine-game sample we saw this season, over which the Grizzlies went 6-3 and Morant reminded everyone how electrifying he can be. It just feels like Memphis is going to be fine revving it up again in October, locked and loaded for another run with Ja as the centerpiece. Banking the off-court nonsense is behind him.

16. Bam Adebayo ( ⬇️ 1 ) - Even if this version of Miami has run out of gas, he’s young enough (26) to be the bridge to the next iteration of the Heat.

Tier 4: Relegated for now

17. Joel Embiid ( ⬇️ 7 ) - You could tell me he’s in the top five after this season is over, but the reporting surrounding his recovery time from surgery suggests this giant human had his meniscus totally removed. Embiid will, in all likelihood, be better than the majority of the guys ahead of him here for at least the next year or two, but what team would give up any of the above names to hitch their horse to a wagon with this many health questions?

Tier 5: Elite Second Bananas

18. Chet Holmgren ( ⬇️ 5 ) - Hasn’t done anything bad to warrant the drop. It’s more a matter of others jumping him with outstanding play. The fact that he’s among the DPOY frontrunners as a rookie tells you all you need to know.

19. Tyrese Maxey ( ⬇️ 4 ) - Counting stats and efficiency have both dipped a bit in the last three months, and the Sixers are just 6-10 in the games Maxey has played without Embiid.

20. Scottie Barnes ( ⬇️ 8 ) - Had him too high in November. My bad.

21. Anthony Davis ( ⬇️ 2 ) - The best defensive player in basketball when healthy, the soon to be 31-year-old Davis has missed just four games this season.

22. Jamal Murray ( ⬇️ 1 ) - His title as the best player to never make an All-Star team continues to solidify. Murray’s age (he turns 27 on Friday) is mitigated by the seemingly constant injury issues, as he’s only played 40 games this season, but if he’s healthy for April, May and June, that’s all Denver will care about.

Tier 6: Algorithm Breakers

23. Donovan Mitchell (was HM) - He’s been playing at an All-NBA 1st team level for the last six weeks, if not the whole season. At 27 years old, with the way he shoots, there’s no reason he won’t continue to be one of the faces of the league for the next decade.

    And yet it seems to be the biggest open secret in the NBA that he will leave Cleveland the first chance he gets. If he refuses to sign an extension this summer, I don’t see how the Cavs don’t entertain offers. Even if he is the first guy on this list who is likely to be dealt before next season, they’re going to get a haul. If the column is “trade value” and he’s worth a ton, then 23 seems about right, no?

24. LeBron James ( ⬇️ 7 ) - As the billows of smoke continue to grow, I have no earthly clue how a trade negotiation involving LeBron would go.

25. Zion Williamson ( ⬆️ 2) - Has quietly had a down season, ever so slightly, by his standards (notice that not a single person raised a fuss that he wasn’t named to the West All-Stars). But he’s still 23 and hasn’t sustained an injury this season, although he has sat out 10 games.

Tier 7: Young Studs

26. Jalen Williams (was HM) - Our first third banana on the list, Williams has followed up his Rookie of the Year runner-up campaign by averaging 19, 5 & 4 on ridiculous efficiency and top notch defense.

27. Brandon Miller (was HM) - No one is paying attention because it’s Charlotte, but the second overall pick in the draft has averaged 22 a night on close to 50/40/90 shooting over the last 16 games.

28. Franz Wagner (was HM) - The drop-off in 3-point shooting (31.8 percent, down from 36.1 percent last season and 35.4 percent as a rookie) is a bit concerning, but he’s still a 22-year-old foundation piece averaging 21 a game for the upstart Magic.

29. Alperen Şengün ( ⬇️ 4 ) - 21, 9 & 5 at 21 years old. Has surpassed Green and Smith as the centerpiece of the Rocket rebuild.

30. Evan Mobley ( ⬇️ 6 ) - Barely hangs onto the last spot even though he hasn’t made the leaps on offense we might have expected by now.

Omissions from November

Jimmy Butler (was 18) - Finally starting to look his age, both from a production and durability standpoint.

Damian Lillard (was 20) - Still very, very, very good, but he’ll be 34 in July and the contract is the contract.

De’Aaron Fox (was 23) - Started the season on an All-NBA pace, has fallen off quite a bit since the calendar flipped to 2024. Just 33 percent from downtown in the new year.

LaMelo Ball (was 29) - Needs to show more at some point.

Ausar Thompson (was 30) - Lesson to all: don’t rush to fill in the last spot on a list like this.

5 Toughest Cuts

Lauri Markkannen, Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson Jr, Jaylen Brown, Trae Young

Next 5

Bilal Coulibaly, Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Johnson, Des Bane, Paul George

Final 5

Domantas Sabonis, Julius Randle, Karl-Anthony Towns, Darius Garland, Jabari Smith

Honorable Mentions

In no particular order…

Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Donte DiVincenzo (THAT’S RIGHT, I SAID IT), Pascal Siakam, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Coby White, Immanuel Quickley, Jaden Ivey, Aaron Gordon, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy III, Kyrie Irving, Keegan Murray, Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons.

That’s it for this edition! I’ll update again at some point over the summer.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”