Under the Microscope

How do the Knicks get back on track? We go back to the scene of the crime to find some answers.

Good morning! We’re back in action tonight with a 7pm tipoff on TNT. No halftime zoom - I’m watching the kids solo until 9 - but I’ll be back on Sunday.

In other news, CONGRATS to Jalen Brunson, who was named the winner of the Jerry West Award as the 2024-25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year. The vote wasn’t really close, as Brunson finished with 70 first place votes to 26 for Nikola Jokic. He appeared on 98 of 100 ballots. Brunson let the NBA in total clutch field goals and clutch points per game and had a 56.4 effective field goal percentage in clutch situations. He is the first Knick to win an individual award since Julius Randle took home Most Improved in 2021.

Under the Microscope

Among the many things I’ve struggled with when analyzing this team over the course of the season is trying to figure out the difference between poor play (or poor coaching) versus deeper, systemic issues. Moreover, I’ve wondered where the overlap exists between those two orbits, and on top of that, if poor play has to be considered systemic once it becomes a regular occurrence.

I’m going to attempt to use this framework to diagnose the problems that led to Monday’s 100-94 defeat, with the focus today on New York’s inability (or unwillingness) to generate efficient offense despite their alleged talent advantage in this series.

On its face, it is a colossal failure that the Knicks could not crack 95 points in a game in which a) Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns both played, b) Detroit’s best defensive big man was injured and c) the best Piston perimeter defender played just 21 minutes. To that end, the waves of criticism sent Tom Thibodeau’s way on Tuesday were not unwarranted. Even if these playoffs have already given us several games where teams with elite offensive players have been stymied, there is an undeniable feeling that New York left meat on the bone.

Worse yet, while the Pistons did some subtle things to make life more difficult for the Knicks, they largely used the game plan that opponents have been leaning into for half the season by slotting a center on Josh Hart and then ignoring him while a big wing guarded KAT.

To that end, New York ranked 16th in the league in offense after January 1. That is roughly when opposing teams really began leaning into the center-on-Hart strategy regardless of personnel, as Fred Katz pointed out in his excellent article yesterday. That ranking since the New Year was worse than any other top-six seed besides the offensively inept Orlando Magic.

So…have the Knicks simply played subpar basketball for three and a half months? Did Tom Thibodeau forget how to coach¹? Or is there something fundamentally broken with the Knicks’ approach?

To find the answer, I went back and rewatched the third quarter, after the coaching staff had a chance to make any necessary halftime adjustments. We’re going to look at nine of those plays below.

The very first offensive possession of the period told us a lot:

Jalen Brunson was far from the main reason New York was down by six at halftime. The Knicks were outscored by one point in the 20 minutes he played and five points in the four minutes he sat. He was also 6-for-11 from the field for 17 points, but clearly was not happy with the whistle his team wasn’t getting even though he drew four fouls - the same number as Cade Cunningham, it’s worth noting.

Perhaps lost in his frustration was the fact that his team was generating good offense. They hit 16-of-28 shots from 2-point range for a 57.1 percent hit rate, which is an elite number, especially for the postseason.

They were also getting great looks from deep. According to NBA.com, of their 16 attempts from long range, nine were open² and four were wide open³. That they only hit five of those 16 shots was not an indication of bad process, especially early on when the ball was swinging around with regularity. The biggest issue was the 10 turnovers, half of which were comically unforced with several others easily avoidable, including this one when Jalen tried to draw a foul on Paul Reed:

This play by Brunson is the spiritual precursor to the first play of the second half. Here, Brunson bypasses looking back at Towns, who had nobody near him in the middle of the court. On the missed shot above, he chooses not to kick it out to OG Anunoby, and instead tries - and fails - to draw a foul on Duren.

Eventually, the tactic worked. Brunson doubled his fouls drawn in the second half with eight, but in winning the battle, he contributed to losing the war.

Let’s go the next offensive possession, which reveals another main issues at play: